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Elon’s Out

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Re: Elon’s Out

#661

Post by CaptainZapp »

sterlind wrote: post #633
CSMastermind wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without knowing how much background you have a simple summary would be: A Straddle is a strategy that allows you to bet that a stock's price will change by x% by a certain date. To make money on a straddle you want the stock to go up or down by more than that percentage, the more it changes the better. So if you believe that the matter will be resolved one way or the other by whatever date then you'd want to buy a St…

how do you actually trade complex options like this? E-Trade or Robinhood or something? I'm sure I could get myself in a whole heap of trouble trading options, but it looks fun..

Actually less trouble than short selling, where the loss, in theory, is unlimited.

On options losses are capped to the money invested.

Nevertheless, you should consider that a host of professional traders with much better equipment and connections are betting against you.

Re: Elon’s Out

#662

Post by ordu »

fbn79 wrote: post #641
petilon wrote: post #71

This article says Musk agreed to buy Twitter mostly as a joke. I think there's a far better explanation. This wasn't a joke for Musk because after agreeing to buy Twitter he proceeded to sell billions of dollars' worth of TSLA stock, supposedly to finance the purchase. Even for the richest man in the world that's not a joke. I think a better explanation is that Musk offered to buy Twitter as a cover for selling billi…

Too much conspiracy theory. I think simply that Musk do not see the imminent market crash. Now he is going in tribunal to negotiate a lower price. The think will end with Musk owning Twitter in a way or another.

> I think simply that Musk do not see the imminent market crash

It is possible of course, but unlikely. Musk doesn't seem to me as a person who might be surprised by this market crash, I heard him talking about the coming crash and how it will influence his plans before he started talking about buying twitter. My memory may be faulty but I think he mentioned it for example in December when justifying himself pushing SpaceX engineers to work harder to bring Raptor 2.

It seems more plausible for me that he tried to sell Tesla shares before the crash hit them.

Re: Elon’s Out

#663

Post by Tepix »

petilon wrote: post #71

This article says Musk agreed to buy Twitter mostly as a joke. I think there's a far better explanation. This wasn't a joke for Musk because after agreeing to buy Twitter he proceeded to sell billions of dollars' worth of TSLA stock, supposedly to finance the purchase. Even for the richest man in the world that's not a joke. I think a better explanation is that Musk offered to buy Twitter as a cover for selling billi…

> Musk pretended that TSLA valuation is reasonable.

He did? I thought he said more than once that he believes the stock price to be too high.

Re: Elon’s Out

#664

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy »

silisili wrote: post #530
Red_Leaves_Flyy wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in a white and homogenous area of the us. Cash does indeed rule every thing around me. There’s not a problem that can’t be solved with cash. Kill a few kids drunk driving or shooting recklessly? Cash in the right pockets and the evidence will be inadmissible and the case goes kaput. Want some more privacy? Your neighbors might suddenly find the neighborhood inhospitable with cash in the right hands. Want your kid…

I'm not sure how much the first line really matters, as I grew up in a rather diverse top 25 city, but yeah, experience was about the same. In high school, everyone knew exactly who to call if you got a DUI. 10k was the going price to get a certain lawyer who gets the case in front of a certain judge and however that worked, the charge was dropped to a moving violation. Kinda sick how the system works.

The first line only matters to racist whites that assume only BIPOC are corrupt when data shows white wealthy people commit far more crime and more substantial crimes at that.

Re: Elon’s Out

#665

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy »

cmurf wrote: post #565
silisili wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how much the first line really matters, as I grew up in a rather diverse top 25 city, but yeah, experience was about the same. In high school, everyone knew exactly who to call if you got a DUI. 10k was the going price to get a certain lawyer who gets the case in front of a certain judge and however that worked, the charge was dropped to a moving violation. Kinda sick how the system works.

Justice in America isn't a right, it's a product you buy. Public versions should be non-existent or inferior. This is so that the best people get access to the best version of the product that money can buy. By definition in America, the best people are rich people. God rewarded them with money after all. Therefore they are closer to god and thus superior. Why be rich if you can't spend money buying things like justi…

The French have a good response to the contagious mental illness that creates this mindset.

Re: Elon’s Out

#666

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy »

google234123 wrote: post #514
Red_Leaves_Flyy wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jail. The consequence needed here is jail. Put these clowns in jail with junkies and wife beaters and gang bangers. While we’re at it, treat them the same as their local pd treats the most vulnerable in their community. They deserve no better than the most vulnerable and marginalized.

Jail for parking multiple times in disabled places or for buying a car every 6 months? Hard no from me. Both of those things are not the same as beating people.

If he Wants the space that bad he should buy it. The city should make the fine proportional to the sum of wealth and income over 100,000,000 to deter shenanigans. Repeat offenses should be points on license. DMV should adjust their policies to prevent this for the rich only abuse through fines that reflect the above metric. Try thinking through a problem and not just jerking your knee.

Re: Elon’s Out

#667

Post by ordu »

godmode2019 wrote: post #653
fbn79 wrote: post #641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too much conspiracy theory. I think simply that Musk do not see the imminent market crash. Now he is going in tribunal to negotiate a lower price. The think will end with Musk owning Twitter in a way or another.

This is the obvious answer for any rational observer. Everyone seems to want to attribute it to some projected character fault in Musk, a chance to elevate their morality or intelligence higher than a famous rich guy. Musks offer was strategically made before yearly earnings, when everyone posted bad earnings the market tanked.

> This is the obvious answer for any rational observer.

"Obvious" and "rational" in one sentence seem to me suspicious every time. I'm suspicious about "obvious" itself, because of my math education, but when combined with "rational" it is just too much for me.

The answer you refer is a simpliest one: it doesn't need any special assumptions of Musk's personality and it is built on a smallest possible sample of relevant facts. May be it means that it is an obvious answer? May be. But it doesn't mean that it closer to reality than more complex opinions relying on more data points and more complex models of Musk's personality, not just an assumption of his rationality.

Re: Elon’s Out

#668

Post by [deleted] »

Red_Leaves_Flyy wrote: post #665
cmurf wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Justice in America isn't a right, it's a product you buy. Public versions should be non-existent or inferior. This is so that the best people get access to the best version of the product that money can buy. By definition in America, the best people are rich people. God rewarded them with money after all. Therefore they are closer to god and thus superior. Why be rich if you can't spend money buying things like justi…

The French have a good response to the contagious mental illness that creates this mindset.

[deleted]

Re: Elon’s Out

#669

Post by boruto »

pyronite wrote: post #464
tiberriver256 wrote: post #401

If the designer of Bloomberg.com is on HN... thank your for making a decent looking news site. Literally every other site I'm bombarded with sensory overload. This site just lets me read the article in sweet serenity.

Something tells me it's not the designers responsible for sensory overload on other news sites.

It's always that product manager who wants more ad placements to meet revenue targets.

Re: Elon’s Out

#670

Post by jacquesm »

xiphias2 wrote: post #648
jacquesm wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no other buyers at this price or anything near it, Musk simply messed up. The deal he proposed is beyond stupid and the effect this can have on all of Musk's holdings is the thing to watch for, Twitter could well be his Waterloo. 'Is this the hill you want to die on?' is always a good question to ask yourself before you dig in and from where I'm sitting Twitter was 'optional' in Musk's arsenal, he had all o…

,,The deal he proposed is beyond stupid’’ The price in the deal was set by professional lawyers at Goldman Sachs, so if it was beyond stupid, it was not Elon’s fault. The deal was proposed before the recession, and at that time there were people proposing that the price is too low, because Twitter stock was over $60 at some point. Of course in the current market Elon would pay a few billions to get out of the deal, b…

If I have a classic car appraised and don't like the appraised value I'll pass. Goldman Sachs was working for Twitter, of course they are going to try to maximize the valuation. Musk should have done DD before agreeing on a price, it's that simple.
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