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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#661

Post by halffaday »

nobody9999 wrote: post #597
JJMcJ wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost all DMV problems are due to understaffing, not any laziness or incompetence on the part of the people who work there. In California the DMV experience was greatly improved by having appointments, and for walk in, you get a number and at least have an idea when you'll be called, so you can sit in a waiting area, not have to stand for hours. COVID has reduced staffing so that makes appointments harder to get. Al…

>Also, imagining that corporate offices are models of efficiency is an error. Absolutely! I used to work for a Fortune 50 company (that shall remain nameless here) and was moving various groups (mostly marketing and research) away from mainframe batch processing (this was the mid 1990s) toward distributed (Unix) systems. The inefficiency and waste were just unbelievable. The corporation had tried to move their custom…

Not that long ago, California paid $2B in fraudulent benefits. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-07/bank-of-...

That’s a single program. Forget it, Jack. It’s China Town.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#662

Post by scarface74 »

TuringNYC wrote: post #622
scarface74 wrote: post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok. They tell you their revenues. What good does that do if they don’t have a profitable business model?

Because then you can at least choose the company with 50MM ARR over one with 5M ARR if you have multiple offers

And what if that company with 5 million in revenue has a net profit margin of 20% and the company with 50 million in revenue has a negative profit margin?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#663

Post by thoms_a »

worik wrote: post #503
zitterbewegung wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The markets are efficient but they aren’t perfect. In any situation the markets will do the best to optimize but will always fall short of perfection . Since markets aren’t perfect that’s why you can make money by speculation.

> In any situation the markets will do the best to optimize but will always fall short of perfection The problem with markets is a "market efficient" outcome can be catastrophic for social welfare. During the Irish potato famine the markets allocated food away from Ireland because there were not many there who could afford it. They starved. The market functioned perfectly. Markets find equilibriums. Total collapse is…

Indeed. The "Free Market" can elevate a ruthless plutocracy of robber barons with private armies far longer than the little people can stay alive.

As the Bezos Battalion, the Zuckerberg Zealots and the Musk Machines close in around your hometown's lithium supply, you can of course die with pride knowing that you believed in the Constitution and lived as the Founders intended.

(plz no ban, I love Free Markets, I'm just working on my creative writing)

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#664

Post by formerkrogemp »

cableshaft wrote: post #553
formerkrogemp wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't need solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, water reclamation, on shore chip foundries, manufacturing, battery chargers, non-crumbling bridges, manufacturing, paved raids, public transit, or working airports. We need more crud apps and adtech! More stock options and stock buybacks!

You're being sarcastic, but we probably don't need that stuff either. We're eventually going to run out of resources to make all that at some point (we're already starting to run out of sand[1], which we use in modern cement, for glass, and for the silicon in computer chips, for an example -- and before anyone goes 'deserts are full of sand!' they are, but it's the wrong type to make these things). Probably should st…

Ah yes, that old study/book "The Limits to Growth" from 1972. How it haunts me still. Along with the first IPCC report I read 10 years ago. I do wonder what the future (present) holds. Of course, you're right about running out of sand. I hope our standard of living doesn't fall that much. In my lifetime. As was said by everyone for a century.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#665

Post by formerkrogemp »

cozos wrote: post #629
mrjin wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is mostly a central banking failure. Take a look around the world, for decades the only thing the central banks have been doing is printing money. If that is ever going to work, put swines in their seat would do their jobs perfectly. To me printing money should only be used as emergency measure just like administering of adrenaline in emergency room and must be reviewed afterwards. Unfortunately such instrument…

What does it mean when inflation happens elsewhere? Isn't that kind of a good thing (if not hostile) - because we can buy stuff from "elsewhere" for cheaper?

This happened during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1980s, late 90s, and early to mid 2000s, depending on the country. Some people speculate that the currencies were manipulated to crash so that people could swoop in and buy assets for cheap in Asian countries. Samsung to this day has large foreign investor ownership for example.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#666

Post by deaddodo »

brigade wrote: post #591
api wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California right?

Can't be, in CA you can't return normal plates, they explicitly don't want them back. And you don't really have to return vanity plates either. Rather, there's an online form for notifying them of a sale.

You definitely can return plates in California. They just don’t ask for them as a due course for any normal processes. But, you can choose to mail them in or turn them over to the clerk.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#667

Post by _8j50 »

22 years ago, info-tech was an industry for which its bubble can pop. Now, it is a foundational element of civilization. Much like bronze to the bronze age or iron to the iron age. The tech bubble popping means civilization popping. The basic rules of supply and demand apply differently to needs like tech as opposed to wants like tech in the dot-com bubble era.

Not that I have high hopes for civilization but we are talking about different variables altogether. From the whitehouse relying on it to communicate with masses to the beggar in China that is forced to use an app for begging, tech is civilization as we know it now.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#668

Post by edgyquant »

dangrossman wrote: post #348
SauciestGNU wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

The DMV in my state requires you make an appointment 4-6 months out right now. Walk-in appointments are unavailable or only available during a few hours a few days a week, if they happen to have staff that day. Good luck if you have your drivers license stolen. I sold a car of mine to Carvana in October. I returned the license plate to the DMV immediately, which is how they're notified that you no longer own the vehi…

Which state? I’ve lived all over and never witnessed anything this bad

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#669

Post by geoduck14 »

MAGZine wrote: post #93
cercatrova wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, I've heard many instances where interviewees asked startups about their revenues and the startups just wouldn't tell them, saying that it's growing, or some other vague nonsense. Even in the case of inquiring about the amount of equity one gets, many startups would not tell them the actual percentage of the company they'd get, instead opting to tell them the number of shares, without actually telling t…

It depends on the stage of the startup, but the books should probably be open to people who have made it to the offer stage until at least series b. if they're not, I'd be worried about the financials, the culture, or both. Refusing to disclose the number of outstanding shares is a huge red flag.

The job I have now includes options. When the job offer was being negotiated, the recruiter called the options "monopoly money"- worthless and having no known value. Just 1000 pieces of nothing. I was frustrated at the time, and negotiated purely on salary.

Ultimately, I came to respect their opacity. They didn't try and deceive me into "millions that could be mine if only X happens"

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#670

Post by LigmaYC »

algoatecorn wrote: post #602
Closi wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Toyota's net income far exceeds Tesla's Far exceeds? It is only 5% higher so that's a bit of a stretch ($22.4bn vs $21.4bn). Plus Toyota had shrunk it's net income from 20/21 to 21/22, while it was a 116.86% increase for Tesla, so it would need an optimistic person to think that Tesla hasn't already overtaken in the last few months since 21/22 year end.

I was responding to a comment which was referencing Q1 2022. Not sure if you missed that or intentionally chose annual figures to shift the goalposts, but either way I agree Tesla is trending toward sector domination and has the potential to prove its valuation as valid. Alas, that has not happened yet, and the market is more complex than net income trajectories. If you firmly believe Tesla will be the EV king in 10…

> I was responding to a comment which was referencing Q1 2022.

There is nothing referencing Q1 2022 on this thread.

> Alas, that has not happened yet, and the market is more complex than net income trajectories

The comment you replied to didn't state that the market is simply net income trajectories.

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