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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#661

Post by JohnTHaller »

brimble wrote: post #501
Cd00d wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

It's basic vocabulary in poli-sci or international relations studies or circles. Less obscure (in the context of those fields) than much of the engineering, math, and computer nerd jargon that gets thrown around on here regularly. Likely to be encountered in adjacent fields, notably history. It's about one small notch more obscure than the term "hegemony".

I've never heard it before and I watch Rick and Morty.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#662

Post by drran »

gitfan86 wrote: post #518
littlestymaar wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia doesn't have a big track military track record in recent years, but there's one thing that they have proven to do really well: leveling a city to the ground while slaughtering the civilians who didn't flee. Having the Ukrainian legitimate government agree to surrender to save Kiev (or “just” Khariv) from such a fate isn't completely impossible to imagine. And giving infantry weapons isn't going to be enough to…

Russia has claimed that the mission is to liberate Ukraine from Nazis, which is why you see videos of unarmed civilians not being immediately run over by trucks. If the mission changes to kill as many civilians as possible, the army is going to have an even worse morale problem and the international community will come up with a creative solution like giving part of Poland to Ukraine, giving Ukrainian citizenship to…

Just sign a paper that Poland rocket is now Ukrainian rocket and then shoot it over border. Ukraine will not protest if a Ukrainian rocket will hit an enemy target on territory of Ukraine. Nobody can easily check who operates a rocket or drone.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#663

Post by mikewarot »

Cd00d wrote: post #353
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

I learned the word decades ago from WTTW in Chicago late one Sunday night when the Doctor and Romana were seeking out the forth segment to the key of time.

Dr Who - The Androids of Tara

Princess Strella (Mary Tamm), nor Romana(also Mary Tamm), would ever willingly pledge their suzerainty to Count Grendel of Gracht(Peter Jeffrey), which is why he tried to set up a shotgun wedding.

  DOCTOR: Romana?
  ZADEK: That's the Princess Strella.
  (Grendel moves behind her.)
  STRELLA: (deadpan) I, Princess Strella, descendant of the Royal Kings of Tara, Mistress of the domains of Thorvald, Mortgarde and Freya, do humbly offer my loyalty to the King and do hereby recognise his SUZERAINTY over me and all whom I command.
  (Strella kneels. The Doctor grabs the sceptre and runs down the steps.)
  DOCTOR: No!
  (Everyone gasps as he hits Strella over the head with the sceptre!)
The word seemed to define itself fairly well in that context. Putin is Count Grendel in 2022

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#664

Post by nomel »

sofixa wrote: post #589
nomel wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how that's a sign of incompetence, rather than a sign of aging military equipment. Incompetence would be relaying important, uncoded, information over an unencrypted signal, in a way that would result in some disadvantage. For example, saying "shoot here" then having a tank round go through the wall 5 seconds later wouldn't benefit from encryption.

> For example, saying "shoot here" then having a tank round go through the wall 5 seconds later wouldn't benefit from encryption Of course it would. Otherwise: * the enemy could analyse your strategy and tactics and predict your approach; and worse: * the enemy can impersonate command, say "approach through there" and have the tank go through an anti-tank ditch There's no excuse for unencrypted military communication…

> the enemy could analyse your strategy and tactics and predict your approach; and worse

Encryption won't encrypt the shell going through the wall, which could just as easily be analyzed with the constellation of spy satellites focused on the region.

> the enemy can impersonate command, say "approach through there" and have the tank go through an anti-tank ditch

This would be uncoded communications that would put them at a disadvantage. If that did happen, then yes it would be incompetence. Is there any evidence that this is happening? I find it unlikely that they would believe any voice coming over the line, considering what you're saying is an "attack vector" that has been present and known for, literally, the last 131 years.

Do you have anything that supports this very negative view of the intelligence of the average Russian soldier/commander?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#665

Post by drran »

phkahler wrote: post #574
jnwatson wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is important to distinguish between strategic and tactical decisions. Russia has made a strategic decision to avoid heavy bombers due to the high likelihood of civilian casualties. Some platoon commander launched a rocket barrage for whatever reason. Command discipline isn’t perfect, especially among new recruits, so individual deviations are to be expected.

Don't forget, every media outlet that isn't Russian is going to show those incidents to the world to make that bad guys look bad. We're also not likely to see any wins against Ukrainian military targets for both political and practical reasons. So it's very hard to tell from these reports what the overall picture really is.

Why I can see losses of Ukrainian army, while you cannot? They are not hidden by Ukrainians, because it's impossible to hide them in time of TikTok and FB. They are recorded and posted by civilians to YT, FB, TikTok and reported by Ministry of Defense. If MoD lie in FB, then users will correct them in real time.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#666

Post by blacksmith_tb »

Bayart wrote: post #576
mensetmanusman wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

suzerain (n.) "sovereign, ruler," 1807, from French suzerain (14c., Old French suserain), noun use of adjective meaning "sovereign but not supreme," Sovereign but not supreme is a good way to remember it, it’s like a baby name of ‘supreme’ :)

Using Anglo-Saxon etymons it would be "overlord", I guess.

Ah, but that also implies we're missing "underlord" to go with it then.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#667

Post by drran »

rootusrootus wrote: post #628
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, they have around 2500 members, but that's totally a reason to lose 2000 people a day in an unprovoked invasion and tank your entire country's economy while doing it. Would be nice if Europe and the US would seize Putin and associates' accounts and donate them to Ukraine.

> Would be nice if Europe and the US would seize Putin and associates' accounts and donate them to Ukraine. I agree with this. Ukraine already has sustained tremendous damage, and of course it will get much worse before this ends. Take everything possible from Russia and give it over to Ukraine to help rebuild. Assuming they win. God I hope they win.

$600B of reserves of RF, which are frozen, is the cost of a just single major city. It's not enough to cover loses from Russian war, because Ukraine lost 2 major cities (Donetsk, Luhansk) and whole Crimea at the beginning of the war. Everything confiscated will be just a little fraction of lost value.

IMHO, RF should give Cuban and other territories, confiscated by USSR, back to Ukraine as compensation for 8 years of war and massive destruction of Ukrainian cities.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#668

Post by dharmab »

gamblor956 wrote: post #544
ethbr0 wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why Russia is going with this strategy Because this isn't the intended strategy, but rather then resultant strategy. Modern Russia seems to suffer from the same weaknesses as the USSR: garbage-in, garbage-out. If you staff an entire bureaucracy (including your military command structure) with Yes-Men, you get "Yes" responses. When the question is "Are we prepared for the invasion?" When the question is "Will we be…

Yes, that appears to be the growing consensus among experts. But the reason for the "confusion" (the "stumped" in the title) is that Russia has not historically operated this way under Putin (though it did operate this way under his predecessor). Basically, nothing is happening the way it has happened before (under Putin), and this appears to be a "new normal" (under Putin).

One cause could be the replacement of Minister of Defence from Serdyukov (notable for his anticorruption policies) with Shoygu (alleged yes man)

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#669

Post by ilammy »

oblio wrote: post #513
littlestymaar wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia doesn't have a big track military track record in recent years, but there's one thing that they have proven to do really well: leveling a city to the ground while slaughtering the civilians who didn't flee. Having the Ukrainian legitimate government agree to surrender to save Kiev (or “just” Khariv) from such a fate isn't completely impossible to imagine. And giving infantry weapons isn't going to be enough to…

The thing is, once they do that, they'll cross another one of those imaginary lines. And the sanctions Russia is under will be nothing like the ones that will be heaped on top. Europe is highly sensitive about local conflicts, especially after what happened to Srebrenica. Grozny didn't really count since it was: a) an internal war b) at the end of Europe If Putin flattens a major European city (for Europe any city ab…

> If Putin flattens a major European city, the outrage in Europe will be huge.

Ukraine is not in NATO. And I'm afraid if NATO and EU have to choose between a direct military confrontation of nuclear-capable powers and a genocide of 40-million-and-dwidling Ukrainian population, they'd choose the latter as long as Putin keeps this contained in Ukraine.

Would it turn Russia into Greater North Korea? Absolutely. Would it cause outrage and grave concern? You bet. Would it make NATO to move in and stop it? Unlikely at the moment.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#670

Post by drran »

denton-scratch wrote: post #590
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

> Did they really launch this invasion on the assumption that the people of Ukraine would just roll over and accept foreign rule? I don't think it's that simple. Sure, conscripts were told to expect a welcome in streets lined with natives waving Russian flags. Maybe some in high command even thought that was a possibility. But they have backup plans; we've seen only the first click of the ratchet. Escalate, pause; es…

Ukraine IS Russia. Russian Federation doesn't contain a region named «Russia».

Russia formed when Oleg from Novgorod killed Ascold and Dir (rulers of Kyїv) in 852AD, captured Kyїv, then called it as «mother of (new) Russian cities».

When Moscow tsar Petro I captured original Russia (now Ukraine), he appended «tsar of all Russia» to his tittle. Then Catherine II renamed Moscow kingdom to Russian Empire.

So, in short, RF is Russian, not Russia.

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