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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#661

Post by pdonis »

ethbro wrote: post #660
pdonis wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inflation is size of economy / money supply. No, inflation is either an increase in the money supply (according to classical, i.e., pre-Keynesian, economics) or an increase in the average price level, often qualified to be the average price level of "wage goods" (according to Keynesian economics). The underlying argument behind "size of economy/money supply" is that if the economy is growing (more precisely, if the…

So, ignoring the digression into wealth transfer and central banking, we agree that... > [inflation] is a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy ... is not a fully accurate statement?

> we agree that...

> > [inflation] is a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy

> ... is not a fully accurate statement?

If you are saying I should have added a qualifier "assuming the rate of economic activity stays constant", yes, that qualifier should be there (if we define "inflation" as "increase in the average price level"). But I don't agree that any qualifiers like whether or not the money gets spent "foolishly" or "unwisely" need to be there.

Also, our current measure of "rate of economic activity", GDP, is not independent of the money supply, because it measures "activity" in dollars. So the fact that US GDP is growing does not necessarily mean the real rate of economic activity is growing.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#662

Post by Fomite »

rayiner wrote: post #622
Fomite wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or "civil service"

There is no such thing in the Constitution. “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.“ Contrast France’s Constitution, where there is a President (Title II) separate from the Government (Title III). To the extent there is a civil service trying to be independent of the President, “deep stars” is a colorful but not altogether inaccurate term.

"For the purpose of this title— (1) the “civil service” consists of all appointive positions in the executive, judicial, and legislative branches of the Government of the United States, except positions in the uniformed services;"

5 U.S. Code § 2101. Civil service; armed forces; uniformed services

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#663

Post by mrnobody_67 »

dv_dt wrote: post #177
vpribish wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

much worse than 2008 how? Global debt markets nearly collapsed and the single largest investment of american consumers crashed. You are making a really bold claim there and it looks like cheap catastrophizing.

If you read Ray Dalio, he seems think think the next recession will be a "debt supercycle" which could be worse than 2008. (this could be him plugging his hedge fund, but he's semi retired, and really has no more money needed to make personally) Note also that recessions have been growing longer each cycle. IMHO it's related to the bottom 99% having been getting paid smaller and smaller portions of wealth, and so a b…

40% chance of recession according to Dalio before 2020:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/bridgewater-ray-dalio-on-pos...

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#664

Post by rayiner »

Fomite wrote: post #662
rayiner wrote: post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no such thing in the Constitution. “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.“ Contrast France’s Constitution, where there is a President (Title II) separate from the Government (Title III). To the extent there is a civil service trying to be independent of the President, “deep stars” is a colorful but not altogether inaccurate term.

"For the purpose of this title— (1) the “civil service” consists of all appointive positions in the executive, judicial, and legislative branches of the Government of the United States, except positions in the uniformed services;" 5 U.S. Code § 2101. Civil service; armed forces; uniformed services

That statute uses the term only as a descriptor for employment-related statutory provisions. It obviously cannot create an executive-branch "civil service" independent and autonomous from the President, when the Constitution expressly vests all executive power in the office of the President.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#665

Post by ethbro »

pdonis wrote: post #661
ethbro wrote: post #660

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, ignoring the digression into wealth transfer and central banking, we agree that... > [inflation] is a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy ... is not a fully accurate statement?

> we agree that... > > [inflation] is a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy > ... is not a fully accurate statement? If you are saying I should have added a qualifier "assuming the rate of economic activity stays constant", yes, that qualifier should be there (if we define "inflation" as "increase in the average price level"). But I don't agree that any qualifier…

Absolutely, on the denomination unit. Foolishly and unwisely were concise proxies for economic impact.

My point was that simply increasing the money supply may or may not result in objective inflation over modest timescales.

It certainly usually does, because foolish things are more politically popular than effective things. But it doesn't have to be so.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#666

Post by ep103 »

bduerst wrote: post #574
ep103 wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also a term for it, called Reciprocal altruism, which is in many ways, the basis and foundation of human society.

Economic discrimination, for purposes of animosity, is the opposite of reciprocal altruism.

I have heard the term reciprocal altruism to also cover events such as the following scenario:

A country exists with a racial divide, let's say blue/green.

A blue person abuses a green person.

The green person does not fight back, and takes the abuse, knowing they are powerless in the society.

A different blue person, blue person #2, attacks the original blue person. This puts bp#2 at legal and physical risk, even though they were never under any threat of subjugation or abuse from the original attacker.

Blue person #2 would be said to have acted in a form of reciprocal altruism for the green person. This type of behavior is often seen, even in situations where BP#2 has little or nothing to personally gain, was never at any risk, and could potentially receive large negative consequences personally for their actions.

Clearly blue person #2 was also acting in a manner of animosity, that (more generalized) could or not be considered discrimination, economic or otherwise.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#667

Post by aoeusnth1 »

prewett wrote: post #348
datpuz wrote: post #141

I asked this in a similar thread a couple of weeks ago, but I feel like the sentiment is a lot more pessimistic today than it was then. Anyway, I've been holding way too much cash for the last two years in anticipation of a recession. Everyone was telling me that trying to time the market is a bad idea and that I should just invest and forget about it, but given the current signals, might it be a good idea for me to…

Timing the marking is a bad idea, but getting good value for your money is a good idea, and has some element of timing. Don't try to figure out when prices are low, figure out when value is high. For instance, relatively low P/E, high dividend yield, high ROI, high ROE, etc. If you're looking to invest in an index fund, check out the S&P 500 historical P/E: https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-ea…

Earnings are also cyclical, just like prices. Imagine an industry whose earnings are especially sensitive to business cycles. On an upswing of the cycle, they look like a good deal because their P/E might be low, but that's only because the market is reflecting the risk inherent in the industry. After earnings crash during a recession, investing in such a "value" company at the top starts to look like it was a bad idea.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#668

Post by aoeusnth1 »

DiseasedBadger wrote: post #477

Real question: When this doesn't happen, what becomes of the handwringing and the doomsaying? Do we just forget the errors and self-interested lies, and treat the people disingenuously emoting over this nothing, like good people? Serious question.

Handwringing can be earnest, even if it's mistaken. Judge people by what they could have known at the time, and their intentions.

But, more realistically, yeah, people will just forget all the bad predictions.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#669

Post by zilian »

paganel wrote: post #282
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

I wonder how the investors will model Matteo Salvini’s actions once he grabs full power in Italy. Afaik he had proposed a practically speaking parallel currency to the Euro a couple of months ago, which if it were to become true would practically kill the European currency. Italy is also too big to fail for the UE and they have one of the largest debs in the developed world (compared to GDP), not exactly the same as…

Don't consider us Europeansdead too quickly. A lot of Italians will unite against another «brexit» disaster.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#670

Post by ashelmire »

koolba wrote: post #656
ashelmire wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly are you asserting? I get that you're reiterating the Trump talking point about "Deep State" nonsense, but the majority of people in this nation have voted for Democratic candidates in the last several elections, including both 2016 and 2018. If anything, the electoral college and gerrymandering are what dampen the will of the people.

The outcome of the electoral college is de facto the will of the people. Similarly, any unelected bureaucrat working in the executive branch that pursues their personal agenda or tries to slow progress on the plans of the duly elected executive is de facto going against said will of the people.

So let’s get what you’re saying: the will of the people is reflected in the person who got less votes winning, because of archaic rules created by ancient oligarchs?

That is cognitive dissonance of the highest order.

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