Earlier quoted context omitted.
That works both ways. Sure you won't have much density for air to move things, but things moving through air also don't have the drag to slow them down.
Yes, for example taking off or landing a rocket on the surface blasts particles of sand out sideways at 1000s of m/s. The particles can fly in the thin atmosphere for kilometers and sandblast everything. Our intuitions about how far and fast tiny things can fly are only true in an atmosphere of similar density.
Starship V3
651–660 of 667 posts
Re: Starship V3
#652Earlier quoted context omitted.
And the planet is dying
Yes, but it has some extra 5 billion years to live.
Life on Earth is about 3/4 of the way through its existence…
Re: Starship V3
#653Re: Starship V3
#654Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, for example taking off or landing a rocket on the surface blasts particles of sand out sideways at 1000s of m/s. The particles can fly in the thin atmosphere for kilometers and sandblast everything. Our intuitions about how far and fast tiny things can fly are only true in an atmosphere of similar density.
Your intuition about how far sand particles can fly at high velocity in the Martian atmosphere is way off base…
If we don't have the experience of buildings stuff on earth where we can test things, we sure as shit not gonna be able to do it on Mars.
Re: Starship V3
#655Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, yes, exactly. They’re doing a cautious roll out. If they didn’t you’d be canning them, and you’re canning them anyway. It feels awfully like you don’t want them trying to roll out new tech at all. Funny take for someone on hacker news to have.
That’s hilarious. They’re not doing a cautious rollout. Tesla has repeatedly shown nothing but contempt for their customers and their safety. And they lie constantly, about everything. No, they’re doing a fake rollout. They painted themselves into a corner with their technical approach, and this fake “unsupervised” robotaxi thing is just the latest way to prop up the stock price and stall while they try and figure ou…
I would be so embarrassed and ashamed to work on AI at Tesla.
Re: Starship V3
#656Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Launches need permission too Do you think the US government that's fawning over StarShield and the Golden dome is going to prohibit it? Of course not. And the permissions required for a launch or series of launches are VASTLY different than the permissions required to get something built. I spent my old life dealing with the FAA a lot. It's painful, but it's not terrible. You basically do their job for them by follo…
I know land permitting can be extensive, but my bet is that it's a small effort per petaflop if you go to the friendliest location in 5000 miles and do it in bulk. And launching enough rockets to compare to such big datacenters not only needs flight permission, it needs a lot more launch pads. And you need big assembly lines no matter what, so you can't avoid land permitting. The way I look at it, land for the actual…
https://wlockett.medium.com/the-spacex-xai-merger-is-a-giant...
But to you're point here, I disagree with this take:
> I think most people would allow a datacenter that isn't using electricity from the grid, isn't consuming water, and isn't polluting the air or with noise. Am I wrong to think that?
This may be uncharitable of me, but I don't think people will. People in the states generally hate AI. Hate it. And, frankly, most people don't know how any of this stuff works. They don't know how the inference gets done and they couldn't care enough to try to learn it. It's kind of like the meme "keep your government hands off my medicaid" that was going around a few years back. People just... totally don't get it and will hate what they hate. Even the people I agree with politically often are absolutely unable to envision anything other than the status quo. People can't even begin to imagine a world where there is no obligation or requirement to work. We could build that world and free ourselves from the tyranny of scarcity, but we're going to need AI to help, and the transition (what we're going through now) is going to be rocky.
Even now you can find people on here who say, "AI gets everything wrong" etc. People will fight musk building something simply because it is Musk. No other reason is needed. People don't actually give a damn about the environment. (this has been hard for me to swallow as an environmentalist at heart, even if I did work for an oil company for a bit). I learned this when I was doing some flying to some mines most directly. Which mines get opposed in the popular press? The mine that happened to be close to a place where a wealthy bank/family had property (a family lodge) that could be wrecked if the rivers got polluted. A hundred or two nautical miles away the same story was playing out with another piece of earth. That mine was unopposed because... well, nobody wealthy gave a damn and the people who inhabited the villages around it were poor. Why do people talk about ANWR like it's some sort of glorious beautiful location of resplendent natural beauty? Because someone said it once, and they're more stochastic parrot-like than the AI lol. I've been up there, lived up there, etc. I'd much rather we protected a few other places (especially some extraordinarily beautiful places that have been absolutely devastated by logging, but I digress), just saying, and ain't nobody going to go up there and spend time up there unless they need to for work.
That is more or less the level of engagement and understanding I expect people to have about this stuff. They read a few Musk tweets, thought, "good lord what a train wreck" (which is largely the right takeaway, to be fair), and will now oppose everything he does, even if it is actually something is probably good for the world. Generally, people don't care about where things come from, how their food gets here, the logistics, etc. I'm being overly broad, obviously some people care, but the amount is far smaller than you'd think, and largely, people will oppose datacenters in America because it is popular to oppose datacenters in America presently. It wouldn't matter if it was a datacenter dedicated to curing cancer and ending world hunger that was entirely sourced from green and conflict-free minerals, you'd have a non-trivial amount of people opposing it.
Now for this: >The way I look at it, land for the actual datacenter isn't a delay. Start that permitting at an appropriate time in your process and it'll be done before you're actually ready to build.
This is right in the "old world" way of thinking about it. Like, if this was the problem 5 years ago, this would be totally right. However, today these guys all view this as a race to AGI and more realistically ASI. If I had effectively infinite money (and Musk basically does), and I wanted to start building a datacenter in here in Alaska, if I built in town it could be 4-8 months to approve the permitting for construction. Double that timeline down south in more desirable parts of the country or with adequate infrastructure. If I'm in a race to build a datacenter as fast as possible, 4-8 months is billions of dollars on the back end when you're being your opposition.
Re: Starship V3
#657Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know land permitting can be extensive, but my bet is that it's a small effort per petaflop if you go to the friendliest location in 5000 miles and do it in bulk. And launching enough rockets to compare to such big datacenters not only needs flight permission, it needs a lot more launch pads. And you need big assembly lines no matter what, so you can't avoid land permitting. The way I look at it, land for the actual…
actually, I'm even more convinced of my idea now, and I'm apparently not the only one: https://wlockett.medium.com/the-spacex-xai-merger-is-a-giant... But to you're point here, I disagree with this take: > I think most people would allow a datacenter that isn't using electricity from the grid, isn't consuming water, and isn't polluting the air or with noise. Am I wrong to think that? This may be uncharitable of me, b…
For the delay part, how many months do you think it takes to set up a substantial satellite production line? And go through enough test versions that you're ready for prime time? I think it's a lot more than 16 months. With a bunch of money you can get enough land and permits for a decade of datacenters long before you can get your first gigawatt of satellites launched.
Re: Starship V3
#658Earlier quoted context omitted.
actually, I'm even more convinced of my idea now, and I'm apparently not the only one: https://wlockett.medium.com/the-spacex-xai-merger-is-a-giant... But to you're point here, I disagree with this take: > I think most people would allow a datacenter that isn't using electricity from the grid, isn't consuming water, and isn't polluting the air or with noise. Am I wrong to think that? This may be uncharitable of me, b…
You make a compelling argument about datacenter NIMBY, though for competing with space that's still largely bypassed since you're not going for super low latency and being a thousand miles out of the way is fine. For the delay part, how many months do you think it takes to set up a substantial satellite production line? And go through enough test versions that you're ready for prime time? I think it's a lot more than…
And still, even if you have the land already, and even the permits, space offers something else. You're quite literally "above the law" in some sense.
Re: Starship V3
#659Earlier quoted context omitted.
You absolutely do not, under any circumstances, have to give him credit. Chronic over-promise, underdelivery. Where was the nearly 3T of fraud he said he'd uncover in the US government, again? Was that a clear win for the country? But hey at least he's effective at getting people to give him money, I guess, which is an indistinguishable "skill" from that of someone who is able to convince people to buy an online cour…
People fuck up. I fucked up three things yesterday. Fortunately I am not as known as Musk, so no one tears into me at Hacker News and my fuckups remain hidden. Nevertheless... "underdelivery." Both Falcon and Starlink are quite major improvements over previous status quo. It is not just a question of having a nice WiFi during your flight. If you are interested in some very practical consequences, look at the Russo-Uk…
"Tee hee he just made a silly oopsie poopsie just like me when I take down prod for a few minutes"
Re: Starship V3
#660Earlier quoted context omitted.
elon musk isnt a nazi
Granted that he is not a member of the NSDAP, but he does support and encourage hard right-wing groups which attempt to fulfill roughly the same mission. His actions certainly meet the more modern definition of nazi than they do any other political description. While he has considerable wealth, his value as a human being is near-zero, in my opinion.