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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#651

Post by thisislife2 »

shykes wrote: post #460
slibhb wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virtually all Arabs hate Israel but Arab governments are more varied. The modern Egyptian state is oriented toward close partnership with the US, and a large part of that was peace with Israel post '73. So yes, the UAE could align with both.

> Virtually all Arabs hate Israel This is true, but Emiratis are a notable exception. The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government. For example, last year when a rabbi was murdered, the Emirati government reacted forcefully and made a point to sentence the perpetrators to death. Note, the perpetrators were…

> The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government.

That's not entirely true. Judaism is one of the legally recognised minority religions of Iran and Iran still retains an ancient Jewish community of 10,000 - 15,000 Iranian Jews that also have 30+ synagogues in Iran - Tehran’s embattled Jewish community endures despite Israeli bombing of synagogue - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/22/tehran-embattl...:

> By the time he got up the next morning to get ready for work, an Israeli airstrike had completely destroyed the synagogue ... “We condemn this attack. It disrespects our faith. Iran’s Jewish community doesn’t have good relations with the Zionist Israeli government,” he said. Iran’s Jewish community is the largest and oldest in the Middle East outside Israel, dating back about 2,500 years to when Jews were exiled eastwards by Assyrian and Babylonian rulers ... About two decades ago, Israel encouraged Iranian Jews to emigrate, offering cash incentives in an attempt to prompt a mass migration. At the time, the Society of Iranian Jews dismissed the offer as “immature political enticements” and said their national identity was not for sale.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#652

Post by cma »

nkmnz wrote: post #439
wolvoleo wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And religion and marriage really shouldn't have anything to do with one another. Atheists can marry too.

They can. It’s called a civil union. Complaining about marriage laws in Israel in this uninformed way is just an antisemite dog whistle.

Israel's domestic civil unions have restrictions on interfaith couples, and common-law/reputed spouse outside of that system doesn't grant the same citizenship pathway, though they can become residents.

A marriage isn't just a state recognition of a civil union as religious, interfaith marriages between recognized religion and non-recognized have to marry abroad to get the similar rights, with special exclusions on this pathway if the immigrant spouse is from the West Bank or Gaza.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#653

Post by cma »

nkmnz wrote: post #601
ceejayoz wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You might be surprised, but a civil union is the only legally binding form of marriage in many countries, e.g. Germany. That's great. That's not Israel's setup. > If you cannot think about any group that’s not as bad as Hamas, but worse than Israel, I‘m happy to help… just ask! "Others are worse" is not the moral standard one should aspire to, either.

Israel’s setup is not perfect (and so is the one in Germany), but as long as you cannot show that there is any meaningful legal difference in the eye of the state between a couple that’s married (Christian, Muslim, Jewish, Druze) or in a Civil Union, I cannot see the difference to the system in Germany. I think (not an expert) the system in the UK in the same: you can get married either by the Church of England or by…

> as long as you cannot show that there is any meaningful legal difference in the eye of the state between a couple that’s married (Christian, Muslim, Jewish, Druze) or in a Civil Union

Citizenship pathway. An Israeli Chrisitian of recognized denomination can marry someone from abroad domestically of same denomination and have a citizenship pathway (as long as they aren't from Gaza or West Bank). Same Israeli marries a Muslim (or Muslim Israeli marries a recognized denomination Christian) and they can't. This isn't religious freedom, there are state religious courts handling the intricacies of this.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#654

Post by tgma »

thisislife2 wrote: post #651
shykes wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Virtually all Arabs hate Israel This is true, but Emiratis are a notable exception. The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government. For example, last year when a rabbi was murdered, the Emirati government reacted forcefully and made a point to sentence the perpetrators to death. Note, the perpetrators were…

> The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government. That's not entirely true. Judaism is one of the legally recognised minority religions of Iran and Iran still retains an ancient Jewish community of 10,000 - 15,000 Iranian Jews that also have 30+ synagogues in Iran - Tehran’s embattled Jewish community endure…

Iran is not an Arab country.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#655

Post by thisislife2 »

tgma wrote: post #654
thisislife2 wrote: post #651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The UAE may be the only Arab country where Jews are not only allowed to live, but can do so safely without fearing either their neighbors or their government. That's not entirely true. Judaism is one of the legally recognised minority religions of Iran and Iran still retains an ancient Jewish community of 10,000 - 15,000 Iranian Jews that also have 30+ synagogues in Iran - Tehran’s embattled Jewish community endure…

Iran is not an Arab country.

Ah, true. Good catch.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#656

Post by hollerith »

rayiner wrote: post #175
cogman10 wrote: post #104

> The UAE's exit from OPEC represents a win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who in a 2018 address to the U.N. General Assembly accused the organisation of "ripping off the rest of the world" by inflating oil prices. I can't see how it is actually a win for Trump. OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. They are the ones that have mandated using the dollar as the baseline currency for buying and selling OPEC…

> OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. They are the ones that have mandated using the dollar as the baseline currency for buying and selling OPEC oil. Has anyone ever quantified the benefit the U.S. supposedly gets from dollar denominated oil? How does that compare to the cost to the U.S. of paying cartel pricing for oil? Given that the U.S. is a huge oil consumer, surely the cost to it of cartel pricing i…

The US is a huge oil consumer, but these years it basically produces all it needs domestically, so even if the rest of the world (inexplicably) started turning their noses up at dollars, nothing significant would change about the US's oil supply.

Also, I think the situation has changed drastically from the 1970s and that OPEC has very little influence on the price of oil. The West's decision to punish Russia for the invasion had a much bigger influence than OPEC has these years.

Some one is going to respond to me with the assertion that US refineries on the Gulf Coast are specialized for refining heavy crude and cannot handle the very light crude produced domestically (or alternatively cannot efficiently produce diesel fuel and similar from the very light crude). I think the situation is more that the Gulf Coast refineries can make more money refining heavy crude, so a lot of heavy crude from other countries flows to the US Gulf Coast (and once it is refined, those refinery products get consumed mostly in the US because it would be inefficient to ship them overseas). But in exchange a lot of US-produced crude gets shipped overseas to refineries that aren't as capable as US refineries are, but that is OK because very light crude is easy to refine.

The point is that the US produces slightly more crude that it uses, and could become completely self-sufficient in petroleum products after an adjustment period. Yes, the adjustment period might cause temporary shortages and be quite painful to investors long on Gulf Coast oil refineries, but it would probably not be a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#657

Post by fakedang »

oa335 wrote: post #481
rafale wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite impressive how they folded. UAE bluff was called spectacularly and I think that, in the future, looking back, that event might mark the beginning of the end of their geopolitical ambitions.

> that event might mark the beginning of the end of their geopolitical ambitions. i hope so, they have been one of the biggest sources of discord in the Middle East, funding civil wars in Libya, Sudan, Yemen, funding a coup in Egypt.

Unfortunately, they're now in league with Israel and just left OPEC which was under the Saudi umbrella. While it's basically trading one devil for another, the Saudis are at least more pragmatic about regional stability unlike the UAE (the Saudis support the legitimate government, against the UAE, in literally every conflict in the region).

I wouldn't be surprised if the UAE starts scheming to foment within Saudi Arabia next. And unfortunately, the only counter to that would be for Saudi Arabia to become further entrenched in its Salafi culture.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#658

Post by nradov »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #594
ajross wrote: post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Asian countries in particular are going to burn They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships. No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in…

> escorted by PLAN ships This would be a blunder by Beijing. It would involve trotting their ships through half a world of American and allied sensors, only to put an untested-in-blue-waters navy perilously far from nearest bases or support if anything goes wrong. I’m not saying the likes of Xi, Putin or Trump couldn’t do it. But it would be an intelligence bonanza for the West, India, Japan and Taiwan.

The PLAN has routinely operated in the region for several years. They have a permanent base in Djibouti and free use of port facilities in Pakistan.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#659

Post by traderj0e »

testing22321 wrote: post #500
traderj0e wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever your standard is for an "efficient" vehicle, more efficient things than those 15-20mpg trucks or SUVs do exist in the US. Every automaker sells a serious car that gets at least 30mpg combined if gas-only, or like 50mpg if hybrid.

The really wild part is you think that’s good. You’ve never driven a BYD because your government blocks them. You’ve also never driven a fuel efficient car because they hardly exist in the US

I didn't say it's good, I said it's more efficient than those small SUVs and trucks that 2/3 of the US drives. Ie most Americans are deciding against efficiency.

Btw EVs and plug-in hybrids are fairly common here too. What we don't have is the entry-level all-petrol cars that do 50mpg because they're like a 1L 3-cylinder turbo, which seem to be common in western Europe at least. But also idk if those are as affordable in those countries as the cheapest cars are affordable in the US. Like the UK's best selling car, Ford Puma, costs more than a US Prius which isn't considered an entry-level car here.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#660

Post by traderj0e »

jmyeet wrote: post #475
traderj0e wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is interesting and under-reported. But it doesn't mean that oil would've spiked a lot less without the OPEC cuts, and that's not the same as gasoline costs which depend on refineries too.

Um, how do you figure? You realize that was a 10% cut in global oil supply, right? Of course it's going to spike crude oil prices. It's almost like the US completely stopped producing oil for 2 year (13M vs 9.7M). There are a number of elements that go into gas prices like additives, refining margin (called the "crack spread") and distribution but crude oil prices are a huge part of that. Also, like anything demand p…

Oil prices nearly doubled between early 2021 and mid 2022, which coincides with peak inflation in the US and also covid19 restrictions easing. 2020 to mid 2022, QE was so nuts that M2 supply rose 40%. Is oil demand inelastic enough that a 10% supply cut means a 100% price increase? It's possible, but hard to tell given what else was going on at the same time.

Iran War is hard to compare to because there's price speculation around war now, rather than just OPEC cuts. But anyway what's interesting about Trump making a deal with OPEC to cut supply is that it kinda makes the US part of the oil cartel.

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