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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#651

Post by samrus »

noelsusman wrote: post #351
smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

The companies with billions on the line didn't seem to think Iran's threats to attack ships were impotent. Their military capabilities are diminished in the short term, but if their ability to impose a toll on the Strait of Hormuz holds then that's a massive win for Iran in the medium/long term. A mere $2M per ship represents 10% of Iran's GDP. They would become the only country in the world to impose a toll on inter…

Hormuz isnt international waters. Its split between iran and oman, as woukd the toll be in irans proposal

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#652

Post by hack4278 »

scythe wrote: post #425
RiverStone wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn’t align with the perspective of actual Iranians I know. There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. That aligns with conversations I’ve had with Iranians friends in the US and family members within Iran who want the regime destroyed so there is a chance of removing the Islamic theocrac…

> There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. Most of them realized their mistake: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/01/... Iranians hoping that war and death will save them are chasing a gruesome mirage. The US has successfully liberated exactly one country by regime chang…

Calling Iranians who are against their current government “morally compromised” is real reprehensible for someone sitting in an armchair. Hoping foreign power can help overthrow the domestic lord is nothing new. That’s literally how the U.S. gained its independence with French military assistance.

And to your point, US interventions saved South Korea, Kuwait, Grenada, Bosnia, in addition to Panama. The legacy of Vietnam is complicated with the country rejecting communism, becoming capitalistic, and embracing the U.S. in recent years. This is in stark contrast to countries like North Korea. We don’t know how Iraq and Venezuela will turn out in the current timeline either.

Even more problematic though, is the fact that many of the US interventions happened in countries at the brink of free fall. These are failed states who are more likely to experience turmoils with or without the U.S.. Yes, civil wars can be worse than dictatorship. But that’s one of many possible outcomes. Avoiding all changes due to the fear of the worst potential outcome is weirdly privileged view. Kurds in Iraq can attest to this. Iraq has become much better for them nowadays because the Saddam era was pure hell. They were desperate and any alternative was thought to be better.

However, I don’t think intervention in Iran necessarily serves the US interest to begin with. So sure, I agree with you that the U.S. really shouldn’t waste more time in Iran.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#653

Post by cosmicgadget »

peder wrote: post #407
zild3d wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's 10-point plan (that no one else has agreed to)

Exactly, but Hacker News is upvoting this because it wants the US to be seen as the loser of this conflict. Both sides in a conflict (or any negotiation) make demands that they know the other will not accept. You can't just take someone's list like that and assume that'll be the exact outcome.

Oftentimes ceasefires have agreed-upon terms.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#654

Post by samrus »

gizajob wrote: post #363
noelsusman wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The companies with billions on the line didn't seem to think Iran's threats to attack ships were impotent. Their military capabilities are diminished in the short term, but if their ability to impose a toll on the Strait of Hormuz holds then that's a massive win for Iran in the medium/long term. A mere $2M per ship represents 10% of Iran's GDP. They would become the only country in the world to impose a toll on inter…

Hard to spin your supreme leader and all your generals and military commanders being flattened as a win.

Call it a draw then. Which is crazy against the world superpower. And terrible for the US

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#655

Post by techterrier »

tristanj wrote: post #612
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there a…

It never had any ability to prevent an indiscriminate bombing campaign, and never did. And nobody ever thought otherwise.

It only ever had to prove it could keep the strait closed. Which it did. And now the americans are going away, and they can get back to hanging students from cranes.

The USA has failed to achieve any of its strategic goals, and is going home, defeated.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#656

Post by delis-thumbs-7e »

GorbachevyChase wrote: post #280
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

I’m not sure the terms of negotiation are even worth discussion. Every time this administration has negotiated with anyone on matters pertaining to Israeli interests, it’s only been a ruse to position for another attack. My guess is that they know good and well all the marine landing craft are going to get smoked and are using a false peace to preposition the ground invasion. The ridiculous James Bond scheme they tri…

> false allies

You can just say Israel. I wonder how long it will still take that Netanyahu has not US (or anyone’s at this point, except himself) interest in mind. Even Trump must be able to put two and two together at this point, no?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#657

Post by thelastgallon »

jauco wrote: post #608
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

It’s not the ME countries who are profiting, because they can’t export. So it’s a net loss. (Saudi and oman win a bit, but in no comparison to the iraq kuwait loss) The winners are mostly: Russia, Iran itself and (margibally) the US. But mostly Russia.

The biggest winner is China. Countries/people who have any common sense will switch to solar, induction stoves (replacing LPG/LNG), batteries, electric vehicles (of all kinds). China is the only supplier of solar, batteries, EVs and all things electric with everyone else being a rounding error.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#658

Post by roncesvalles »

Yoric wrote: post #593
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.

We are in an era of clickbait; mainstream media tends to be sycophantic to the views of its readers.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#659

Post by vkou »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #326
donkeybeer wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran if they have any sense should be prepared for a massive self defense and counter attack. "Talks" from the USA and Israel have a precedent of being attacks and invasions.

If there's one thing that's pretty clear, it's that the Iranian government is quite aware of this and of how the US acts. The US government, on the other hand, seems oblivious to anything about how the Iranian government acts.

The US government seems to be pretty oblivious to how it itself acts, expecting them to understand another country's motivations is so many steps beyond that.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#660

Post by helo4362 »

Whats the irans citizens feel about this while thing. As an outsider I see there was lot of protest against islamic regime with the killing of young girl for not covering the head or something like such.

But after trump killed the leader it seemed people rooting for islamic regime. Whats the state of people. Is there a way to know

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