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How will OpenAI compete?

ben-evans.com

651–660 of 693 posts

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t that exactly what’s being discussed re: OpenAI? They seemed unstoppable a few years ago, but have lost quite a bit of reputation and their position of technical lead.

> have lost quite a bit of reputation in the tech world, maybe. All my 'normie' friends are using ChatGPT though and have no concept of their reputation, nor intention of switching. Most people I know are hardly even aware of alternatives, even of Gemini, though everyone has a Google account. I personally also use ChatGPT and have zero reason not to, currently. I might switch if they royally mess up, but everything t…

My normie friends aren’t paying several hundred of $ a month on their services, though.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#652
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But would they pay for it? That's the difference.

More people pay for ChatGPT than any other Consumer AI service by far, and when ads rollout, it won't matter that much.

“consumer” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, I’d be curious to know how it compares to overall AI usage (ie including professionals using it).

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Maybe I am underestimating You sure are. And it sounds like you are also underestimating the effect yourself as well. In fact this perception is so common that there is even a name for it in psychology: Third-person effect. Many people believe that advertising does not affect them. But ironically, the more you believe so, the more likely you are to fall victim to particular types of advertising. And in general your…

Influenced to some degree sure, weather influences me to some degree, but I truly feel like ads aren't affective on me. Unless we broaden definition of ads to something like sponsored content. I have bought some TTRPG rules sets after I have seen them being played in a sponsored video, but I still have never clicked an ad on a page and bought something. And I actually have tried to use ChatGPT to buy something. I hav…

> but I still have never clicked an ad on a page and bought something.

But millions, and millions, and millions of people do. Certainly enough that I provide consulting services for a number of businesses for whom the majority of their revenue comes 95+% from ad-clicks. It's been that way 10-15 years and there have been ups and downs, but at the end of the day, the adspend has always been fruitful.

Whilst I sat around with fellow technical people all patting themselves on the back telling themselves and anyone who will listen "ads dont work" the people I consult too have become multi-millionaires with little more than double digit hosting costs and a few ads accounts.

This seems to be a continual blind spot for a lot of techincal people who really seem to struggle to grasp that not everybody thinks or acts the same way they do.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#654
post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have defined ads as "obvious calls to action that end up in me buying it for sure". That's a pretty narrow view of marketing, but it does feel like you are aware that there may be other forms as you provide examples across the thread. It comes off as some form of elitism, where you deem the simplest ads as ineffective on yourself (but work on "average people") - but then go on to mention things like disco…

Is discount really an ad? Like if I had already made a decision to buy a thing and now I paid less for it was it really a working ad? Also sponsored content is way different than having ads on a website or in an app or what kind of ads do you think GPT will have? And you are definitely judging me. When people say “ads” that is pretty specific thing that they mean. If you broaden it to mean everything then I can’t arg…

> Is discount really an ad?

In most cases, yes. At minimum, it’s a marketing tactic built with the same intent as an ad: to influence your decision-making.

> Also sponsored content is way different than having ads on a website or in an app

However they are all exactly the same, in that they are all ads.

> When people say “ads” that is pretty specific thing that they mean.

No, that’s what you mean. Most people aren’t limiting it to a specific kind of ad, they mean anything designed to influence their behavior, shape their decisions, or sell them something.

> And we can argue forever what counts as an advertisement.

Or we can just work off the available definitions of modern advertising.

"An ad is any paid or strategically placed message designed to influence attention, perception, or purchasing behavior, regardless of format or channel."

> There is two options

There are in fact not. There are two you seem cable of recognising, but there are in fact others.

> OR they do work on most people but not on me

That’s an oversimplification. Ads can work in aggregate without working every time, in every format, or in the specific way you imagine.

Blocking one specific type of ad doesn’t make you immune to ads, it just means you’re filtering one, very narrow channel.

Influence happens through a huge variety of other means, including those that you seem to think specifically don't count and include, but are not limited too, sponsorships, discounts, product placement, social proof, algorithmic recommendations, brand exposure and many, MANY more.

You don’t have to consciously click an ad for advertising to shape your buying behavior.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. I think you're underestimating how fickle consumers are, and how much their choices are based on fashion and emotion. A couple more of these, and OpenAI will find itself relegated to the kids' table with Grok and Perplexity. https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/08/15/1121900/gpt4o-gr...

I still use perplexity. Which tool is better currently?

I’m also unclear on what’s better than perplexity if you want accurate information (and not just to write Harry Potter fan fiction or whatever)

I finally switched off ChatGPT premium when I asked a simple question (“which terminal is this airline”) and it was so confidently wrong. Perplexity referencing sources and trying to double check accuracy is great IMO.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the problem here. Yeah, we know that these models are not good for actual logic. These models are lossy data compression and most-likely-responses-from-internet-forums-and-articles machines. This kind of parlor tricks are not interesting and just because a model can list animals with or without some letters in their names doesn't mean anything especially since it isn't like the model "thinks" in En…

You don't see the problem with a multi billion dollar project not able to give a correction answer to a trivial question? This tech is supposed to revolutionize business, increase productivity to unfathomable levels, automate all our dull boring tasks so we can focus on interesting things! Where have you been the past 4 years?

This. Part of my role is assessing and recommending what if any AI implementations we might add to our production and I did this experiment because my boss's boss did it himself first and sent me a screenshot with the caption "concerning" (though he got "tiger" as his animal). It's going to be a hard sell for more complicated things as long as it makes catastrophic mistakes like this on simple things.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a joint ignorance of how these frontier models get baked and what consumers want. Many pundits think it's just a matter of scraping the internet and having a few ML scientists run ablation experiments to tune hyperparameters. That hasn't been true for over a year. The current requirements are more org-scale, more payoff from scale, more moat. The main legitimate competitive threat is adversarial distillation. Ma…

> The current requirements are more org-scale, more payoff from scale, more moat. What moat? None of the AI providers have a moat at the moment, and the trend doesn't indicate that any of them will in the near future.

I made 2 posts in this thread regarding why I think they have a moat. Was there anything ambiguous or that you disagreed with?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#658
post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?

Google was better, but I'd argue that, say after 2014 or so, for the vast majority of my searches there was no real difference with Bing, and in some areas Bing was better (e.g. some aerial imagery in maps). Bing still never made a considerable dent in Google's market. I can easily see ChatGPT being a similar story.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#660
A very obvious and likely to happen strategy is to turn the emotional manipulation dial up. Make users more dependent on validation and attention the model provides.

They're already doing it, but wonder how far they'll take it.

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