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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#651

Post by watwut »

yodsanklai wrote: post #635
lpcvoid wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have many moral problems with that scenario. I used to live in the US a long time ago. The US is sick; there's a mad king at the top who doesn't have the well being of the nation in his interest, and he is driving the world towards war with every passing day while dividing his own people. War with the US isn't a clear cut "good vs evil" situation as the EU vs russia would be, it would be a utter tragedy, not wanted…

> War with the US isn't a clear cut "good vs evil" situation as the EU vs russia would be I don't think EU vs Russia would be a "good vs evil" situation. Russia/US seem pretty similar to me, dictatorship/propaganda with a majority of the population being regular people not in favor of any war, and 30% of indoctrinated people.

Russians were and are pro war by all reports.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#652

Post by FrustratedMonky »

weberer wrote: post #381
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its the 'kept printing' that is the problem with the story. There was a surge and a pull back. Post-COVID Tightening: After this historic surge, the Federal Reserve began "quantitative tightening" in 2022 to combat inflation, slowing M2 growth to near zero and eventually reversing it.

>slowing M2 growth to near zero and eventually reversing it. The M2 money supply went from 15.4b at the start of 2020 to a peak of 21.7b, before slightly reversing to 20.7b. Then they just continued printing. Now it currently stands at a record high of 22.2b. The dollar is more diluted than ever. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

its a tight rope. shrinking the money supply also has downsides.

Summary of the Policy Reversal Period Policy Action Balance Sheet Impact

June 2022 – Nov 2025 QT (Tightening) Shrank from ~$9T to ~$6.5T

Dec 1, 2025 QT Ends Runoff stops; maturing assets reinvested

Dec 12, 2025 – 2026 Reserve Management Expansion begins via T-bill purchases

By December 1, 2025, the Fed officially halted QT after reducing its balance sheet by approximately $2.4 trillion. The following factors forced the reversal to expansion: 1. Liquidity Squeeze and Repo Market Stress As the Fed drained cash from the system, bank reserves fell toward "critical thresholds". This caused stress in the overnight repo market, where banks lend to each other. Spiking Rates: Key short-term lending rates, such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), spiked above the Fed’s target range, indicating cash was becoming scarce.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#653

Post by coryrc »

lpcvoid wrote: post #463
pendenthistory wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, there seems to be more good will and amiable vibes between EU nationalities than within the US even. Even being enemies for a thousand years, I don't doubt that Swedish and Danish men would go to war for one another, or French and German. It's complicated yes, but the continent is more unified in spirit than it may seem to an outsider.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

Are you posting from Ukraine?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#654

Post by nkmnz »

yodsanklai wrote: post #635
lpcvoid wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have many moral problems with that scenario. I used to live in the US a long time ago. The US is sick; there's a mad king at the top who doesn't have the well being of the nation in his interest, and he is driving the world towards war with every passing day while dividing his own people. War with the US isn't a clear cut "good vs evil" situation as the EU vs russia would be, it would be a utter tragedy, not wanted…

> War with the US isn't a clear cut "good vs evil" situation as the EU vs russia would be I don't think EU vs Russia would be a "good vs evil" situation. Russia/US seem pretty similar to me, dictatorship/propaganda with a majority of the population being regular people not in favor of any war, and 30% of indoctrinated people.

You seem to have very little contact to Russians living in Russia or Germany. Their version of "not in favor of any war" is a very strange one – it's more a stance of indifference than disfavor.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#655

Post by IX-103 »

marssaxman wrote: post #207
llmslave wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a sound response to some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

Strict zoning ruined the housing market, and this is a multigenerational problem: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00941...

Investment real estate ruined the housing market. All of a sudden housing prices are expected to grow year over year as an investment. As more and more growth expectations were applied to housing, public policy (including zoning) changed to protect those expectations. Is it any surprise that there came a point at which it became too expensive?

Once problem we need to solve is how to unwind housing prices without financially ruining honeowners whose house is their primary/only wealth. Of course this problem is even more severe in areas of the country that are becoming uninhabitable due to changes in climate as it drives down demand.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#656

Post by ambicapter »

kingkawn wrote: post #137
ambicapter wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been trying to read more about investing properly recently and this is such an annoying characteristic of most advice you read. Sometimes it's also "well, economic theory says this, and that doesn't follow the behavior of these markets, so decide for yourself".

what unsupported gut-feeling conclusion would you prefer they reach for you?

Surely the issue here is all they've got is unsupported gut-feeling conclusions, not that I'm asking them to be useful?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#657

Post by mmooss »

joe_mamba wrote: post #539
jll29 wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The great minds that - after WWII - built the new Europe had in mind that there should never be war again, which is best realized when former enemies become friends and closer bonds are established at multiple levels: politically, economically, culturally (unions, trading exchanges, visits/open borders/teaching common European values in schools). There is a strong political and cultural foundation in geographic Europ…

>Franco-German friendship exemplified by Mitterand-Kohl personal friendship Ironic to call this a "friendship", when Mitterand along with Thatcher were working behind the scenes with the soviets to sabotage and stop Kohl's reunification of Germany. It was anything but a friendship, but more of a concession. Politics is full of such examples that look friendly to the public, but hide a lot of sabotage and back stabbin…

Maybe you can be friends without always agreeing, and even when competing.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#658

Post by rdtsc »

lostlogin wrote: post #509
rdtsc wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In June 2025, 56% of people in Great Britain thought it was the wrong decision: How many thought it was the right decision at the time? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_U... Remain was 48% so it's actually not that large of a swing in total. It's not like it was 5% remain and now it would be 56% or something. But it does indicate if the referendum was taking place today it might swing the…

Note the turn out too. 72% isn’t great for a major change like this. The non-voters would easily swing it either way as a landslide.

Agree, that's a good point. Perhaps many who would have voted remain just didn't think it was a chance it would pass so sort of stayed home because of that.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#659

Post by joe_mamba »

mmooss wrote: post #657
joe_mamba wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Franco-German friendship exemplified by Mitterand-Kohl personal friendship Ironic to call this a "friendship", when Mitterand along with Thatcher were working behind the scenes with the soviets to sabotage and stop Kohl's reunification of Germany. It was anything but a friendship, but more of a concession. Politics is full of such examples that look friendly to the public, but hide a lot of sabotage and back stabbin…

Maybe you can be friends without always agreeing, and even when competing.

Not when the competition is a zero sum game over critical resources. This isn't a game of table tennis, it's about competition over dominance.

Friendships are just the media facing image. In reality, if a country can gain an advantage over the other they see as an economic adversary, and has the means to enforce it without repercussions, they'll do it. Then they'll meet up in front of the media, shake hands and gaslight the peasants on how this benefits everyone.

The true friendships in between countries are made over decades/centuries over shared blood, heritage and culture because humans are tribalistic and have own group preference. Forcing friendships via political declarations doesn't work.

Let me explain with examples. If Portugal would get attacked a lot of Spaniards would go fight for Portugal voluntarily because of shared history and culture. But if Bulgaria would get attacked, most Spaniards wouldn't volunteer to go die for Bulgaria, even though they're both EU members.

Austria kept torpedoing Romania's Schengen entry just to extract some monetary concession, not exactly something friends do. So if Austria were to hypothetically get attacked tomorrow, a lot of Romanians would cheer rather than want to go help since karma is a bitch. These kinds of petty squabbles are the norm in the EU.

People aren't gonna want to die or sacrifice themselves for the EU flag since it's an artificial construct, kind of like the corporation they work for, not something they feel a sense of belonging and allegiance to like a specific group of people.

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