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OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

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651–660 of 777 posts

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon already has not been paying any sort of income tax to the EU. There was a lawsuit in Belgium but Amazon has won that in late-2024 since they had a separate agreement in/with Luxembourg. Speaking for EU, all big tech already not paying taxes one way or another, either using Dublin/Ireland (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, ...) and Luxembourg (Amazon & Microsoft as far as I can tell) to avoid such corporate/inco…

The EU doesnt collect income/corporate tax, the individual countries do. These big corps use holdings in low tax jurisdisctions like Ireland and Luxemburg, funnel all their EU subsidiaries’ revenues there and end up paying 0 tax in the individual EU countries. This system is actually legal, EU lawmakers should pass laws to prevent this.

> EU lawmakers should pass laws to prevent this.

So EU lawmakers should determine the amount member countries collect in tax?

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#652
post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's already a lot that the US taxpayer is on the hook for that's a lot less valuable than a best on the next big thing in software, productivity, and warfare. It shouldn't be the job of the US taxpayer to feed someone that doesn't want to work, study, or pass a drug test, and it absolutely shouldn't be the job of the US taxpayer to feed another country's citizens half a world away.

Hello, I'm British by birth. That's pretty close to the story other Brits give themselves for why losing the empire was actually a good thing for the UK.

[dead]

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of these have ads. And none of these have an equal value alternative. OpenAI, Claude, Deepseek, Mistral, Gemini, are mostly the same to a regular user.

Bing is mostly the same. Kagi is mostly the same. Yahoo, Yandex, etc. It's 2025. Hardly any difference. There were tens of search engines in the 90s and 2000s that were generally mostly the same. Yet, Google still won and owned nearly all search monetization. Search was even easier to switch. At least ChatGPT has memory. Most chat apps are the same as Whatsapp. All of them are free too. "Ask ChaGPT" is the equivalent…

No those are all significantly worse products, or at least were for a long time. I don't think OpenAI has anything close to a moat. They don't even have a short fence.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It shouldn't be the job of the US taxpayer to feed someone that doesn't want to work, study, or pass a drug test This would make sense if every person was given similar opportunities, like providing quality education to all of our youngest and making higher education a mission rather than a business as a starter. As a society we move at the speed of the weakest among us, we only move forward when we start lifting a…

The US already spends 38% more than the OECD average on education per student, just lagging Luxembourg, Austria, Norway, etc - if you’re a student in America, you have access to plenty of resources. You’re right that these are complex systems, and just pouring more tax dollars and more debt into them isn’t working. Portions of our society need to value education, value contributing to society instead of taking, and r…

Let me phrase it this way for you. The best universities are in the US for a lot of things. But they don't scale.

In another way, the top talent gets Ferraris for their tuition, the rest gets a bike. In a lot of European countries everyone can get the Toyota Camry of education, decent but not world class. That does scale though.

Spending isn't everything, it's how you apply that spending.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your accountants suggest that you take a single 5% chance deal, they probably skipped maths and statistics and you should fire them. It's the dumb as rocks MBAs that will go head first into the 5% chance deal.

Would you take 5% chance of earning 100 dollars if it would cost 1 dollar?

You cannot just scale down the numbers and pretend like the world around you doesn't exist. There isn't much I'll do with 1 dollar. There's a shitload Microsoft could do with 10 000 000 000 dollars.

Opportunity costs are a thing.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#656
post #377
post #139

AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc. The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic,…

The railroads provided something of enduring value. They did something materially better than previous competitors (horsecarts and canals) could. Even today, nothing beats freight rail for efficient, cheap modest-speed movement of goods. If we consider "AI" to be the current LLM and ImageGen bubble, I'm not sure we can say that. We were all wowed that we could write a brief prompt and get 5,000 lines of React code or…

Yes, exactly -- AI would only be analogous to railroads if passenger trains took you to the wrong location roughly 50% of the time.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I‘m aware this means leaving the original topic of this thread, but would you mind giving us a rundown of this whole Japan 1989 thing? I would love to read a first-person account.

I am honored to receive a question from a fellow "Craftsman" (I assume from your name). To be honest, in 1989, I was just a child. I didn't drink the champagne. But as a banker today, I am the one cleaning up the broken glass. So I can tell you about 1989 from the perspective of a "Survivor's Loan Officer." I see two realities every day. One is the "Zombie" companies. Many SMEs here still list Golf Club Memberships o…

Beautiful writing, poetic.

I've always had a morbid fascination with financial bubbles and the Japanese one of the late 1980s might be the most epic in history (definitely in modern times at least).

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#658
post #139

AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc. The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic,…

> AI is a world-changing technology

As stated in TFA, this simply has not been demonstrated , nor are there any artifacts of proof. It's reasonable to suspect that there is no special apparatus behind the curtain in this Oz.

From TFA: "One vc [sic] says discussion of cash burn is taboo at the firm, even though leaked figures suggest it will incinerate more than $115bn by 2030."

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#659

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It shouldn't be the job of the US taxpayer to feed someone that doesn't want to work, study, or pass a drug test This would make sense if every person was given similar opportunities, like providing quality education to all of our youngest and making higher education a mission rather than a business as a starter. As a society we move at the speed of the weakest among us, we only move forward when we start lifting a…

The US already spends 38% more than the OECD average on education per student, just lagging Luxembourg, Austria, Norway, etc - if you’re a student in America, you have access to plenty of resources. You’re right that these are complex systems, and just pouring more tax dollars and more debt into them isn’t working. Portions of our society need to value education, value contributing to society instead of taking, and r…

It is true that throwing money at problems is a lazy and ineffective way to address them. American education is very well funded in general, but very poorly executed. There is absolutely no room for arguments about the lack of money where the US is concerned. It is shameful for Americans to make such arguments.

Much of the problem comes from a poor grasp of what education is and is for, and because of that, money and effort are not allocated properly. One source of the problem are various educational fads. I personally remember when computers were artificially jammed into school curricula for no good reason. There was absolutely no merit to what was being done. But how much do you think the companies selling that garbage made out?

Or consider the publishing industry that fleeces schools and students with 12978th editions of the same poorly-presented material packaged in overpriced books. Financially, education is quite cheap, but there are sectors of the economy devoted to convincing pedagogues and politicians that it isn't, and that what you need to do is buy in order to "change with the times". Sorry, but basic education isn't fast fashion. Materially, basic education is stable and cheap.

Another problem is that American culture is pragmatic to a fault. Americans have a long history of viewing education, particularly the university, with distaste, as some kind of "European", un-American, and aristocratic thing. This explains the appeal of the pragmatic turn of the university: you now go to university to "get a job". Of course, that isn't the core mission of the university, and most professions don't require anything the university might provide, especially not at these absurd costs (hence why GenZ is seeing something like a 1500% increase in pursuing trades).

We have a cultural momentum that must fizzle out or must be reshaped. Where the modern university specifically is concerned, its days may very well be numbered. It may very well be forced to undergo very painful changes, or crumble, with a new crop of smaller colleges taking their place. Where primary education is concerned, parents are increasingly taking their children out of the savage factory known as public education. This, too, may force public education to finally deal with its dysfunction, or collapse.

Re: OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

#660

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why you have armies of accountants rating stuff like this all day long. I'm sure they could show you a highly detailed risk analysis. You also don't count on any specific deal working, you count on the overall statistics being in your favour. That's literally how venture capital works.

(I think) I get how venture capital works, my point is that the bullish story for openAI has them literally restructuring the global economy. It seems strange to me that people are making bets with relatively slim profit margins (an average of 500m on a 10b investment in your example) on such volatile and unpredictable events.

What if your 10B investment encourages others to invest 50B and much of that makes it back to you indirectly via selling more of your core business?

I may be way off, but to me it seems like the AI bubble is largely a way to siphon money from institutional investors to the tech industry (and try to get away with it by proxying the investments) based on a volatile and unpredictable promise?

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