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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#651

Post by ic_fly2 »

tarsinge wrote: post #465
forgotoldacc wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Impressive candidates are applying to jobs that pay somewhat reasonably, even if it's below what they expect. If candidates who are desperate are still completely skipping over a company, that says something about that company.

I am also hiring, in Europe with very good work/life balance but modest salaries and like the parent I'm also not that impressed with candidates, so to me the other explanation is that candidates have a wildly incorrect estimation of what is a somewhat reasonable pay in 2025. The position with FAANG like salaries have reduced drastically. Companies paying 6 figures just to have the privilege to have an entry level de…

I’m in Europe too.

We pay well. Very well in fact. We’re a small company though.

I have a harder time hiring here than at my previous position with a much larger company, even though my current employer is superior to my old one in every way except for brand recognition.

And from others in this space (who have at times tried to recruit me) this is not a problem unique to my company.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#652

Post by Terr_ »

thechao wrote: post #466
spwa4 wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is one trick that allows management to lie to everyone, and to implement downsizing. Fact is that A LOT of US businesses became unsustainable due to the tariffs (which Trump totally did for "US first" and not , I repeat NOT to get an extra tax started for him to spend), the retaliatory tariffs, followed by Trump doing the largest mass-firing in US history, presumably because this is listed in introductory economic…

Two things: (1) Trump doesn't control the prime lending rate (and that's not the interest rate, either); and, (2) he's rapidly headed to lame duck status, already.

Unfortunately "lame duck" status doesn't mean nearly as much under today's radical Republican model of governance.

Namely, where the President does things unconstitutionally and illegally, like creating new taxes on Americans, refusing to execute laws saying money must be spent achieving a goal, ordering the persecution of opponents, etc.

Meanwhile, the new conservative majority of the Supreme Court refuses to act claiming impeachment is literally the only remedy, and a small minority of Republican legislators prevent impeachment from occurring.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#653

Post by r33b33 »

lotsoweiners wrote: post #641
r33b33 wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you ready for great age of suffering? Because there will be no saving, no UBI, no plan B. This is it. This is the end of careers and beginning of centuries of misery. AI will replace everyone except around 3%. If you aren't one of those 3%, start accepting the reality of infinite pain.

Or you know the 97% can just kill the AI. I’d probably go that route.

You can't kill what's more intelligent than you and ubiquitous. You can the 3% though...

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#654

Post by CalRobert »

reactordev wrote: post #548
CalRobert wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, I am fortunate enough to be a homeowner but you do understand that telling a 30 year old with 4 roommates to “bid on a smaller house” is a bit tonedeaf, do you not?

Only to those who refuse to hear it. They will continue to ignore the advice while those who hear it put it into practice and when you’re both 50, they will have their house, a retirement account. While you’ll be bidding on your starter home.

"Why yes I know you're already scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to housing, but have you thought about finding something even worse?"

In all honesty, when was the last time you tried to rent a place to live? My brother makes decent money in his mid-20's and _still_ wound up living out of his car for a couple months when his attempt to find something cheaper backfired.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#655

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #457
disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term incentives for executives compared to dividends. If I am bonused on earnings per share, and I have a button to increase earnings per share mechanically (without needing to increase revenue or decrease costs), why wouldn't I push that button? Can you share some evidence around your statement? i.e. "There is no evidence to indicate buybacks reduce long term i…

> If I am bonused on earnings per share, and I have a button to increase earnings per share mechanically (without needing to increase revenue or decrease costs), why wouldn't I push that button? Examining fantastical scenarios is a waste of time. No one has that button, there is a whole board of directors that votes on these things, and again, compensation is staggered over various performance targets staggered over…

> Reality. The businesses that have the best long term performance over the previous decades are the ones that have done the most buybacks, hence buybacks do not cause short term-ism. It’s just as easy as a business cutting expenses now to juice dividends in the near term, we’ve seen it time and time again with businesses that sacrifice quality and innovation in the short term which eventually cede ground to new businesses.

So no source(s) then?

Your statement is just as un-evidenced as mine, so I'm uncertain why you seem to be so sure of your statement.

> Examining fantastical scenarios is a waste of time. No one has that button, there is a whole board of directors that votes on these things, and again, compensation is staggered over various performance targets staggered over a number of years. The proxy reports detailing these are easily accessible with an online search.

If I can reduce the number of shares, then I can increase EPS. Buybacks reduce the number of shares. The button clearly exists, and based on watching this happen it's clear that the button gets pressed pretty often.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#656

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #655
lotsofpulp wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I am bonused on earnings per share, and I have a button to increase earnings per share mechanically (without needing to increase revenue or decrease costs), why wouldn't I push that button? Examining fantastical scenarios is a waste of time. No one has that button, there is a whole board of directors that votes on these things, and again, compensation is staggered over various performance targets staggered over…

> Reality. The businesses that have the best long term performance over the previous decades are the ones that have done the most buybacks, hence buybacks do not cause short term-ism. It’s just as easy as a business cutting expenses now to juice dividends in the near term, we’ve seen it time and time again with businesses that sacrifice quality and innovation in the short term which eventually cede ground to new busi…

> The businesses that have the best long term performance over the previous decades are the ones that have done the most buybacks, hence buybacks do not cause short term-ism

This is mixing up cause and effect. If I have lots of free cash flow, then I can do buybacks which increases EPS. Lots of free cash flow is associated with better performance, which is perhaps why people believe this.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#657

Post by windward »

QuiEgo wrote: post #622
windward wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're zooming out and considering this negative sentiment with similar times in the past. I think that's wise. I think we should keep zooming out to other industries. Imagine you're an engineer for GM in Detroit in the 70s - would you consider the mean to be your contemporary middle-class lifestyle, or what it is in 2025? Similar for steel and semiconductors. It goes for other places, too. Is the US's financial stre…

Let’s hypothetically say we’re all doomed. Say our jobs are going the way of manufacturing in the 70s-80s. What’s the play then? If I was a new college grad I’d stay away from programming, but that’s been true for a while regardless of offshoring, the job market is just too soft until managers figure out they are killing their senior engineer pipeline and go back to investing in people. What about the people already…

Good question. I've gone with:

>Live under your means and save as much as possible?

which, while obvious, isn't being done by all of us.

A part of me gets angry that collective action was so unpopular thanks to the view that it dragged down those who could excel individually. Every time I see software people act powerless in front of these steamrolling, enormous tech giants that control every facet of our lives, I think about how much power we had - and are on the verge of giving up.

I also try to confront the future, rather than turn a blind eye to it. Can I be happy and find self-actualisation without this identity and financial status? That's a question everyone should think about regardless of what happens.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#658

Post by j-bos »

jiveturkey wrote: post #570
j-bos wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you tried jobs.now ? In theory those are positions legitimately looking to be filled.

they aren't. those are market tests, not open reqs.

How do you reckon? My understanding is that they're valid perm positions that legally must be offered to US citizens before they can be filled by anyone else.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#659

Post by reactordev »

CalRobert wrote: post #654
reactordev wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only to those who refuse to hear it. They will continue to ignore the advice while those who hear it put it into practice and when you’re both 50, they will have their house, a retirement account. While you’ll be bidding on your starter home.

"Why yes I know you're already scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to housing, but have you thought about finding something even worse?" In all honesty, when was the last time you tried to rent a place to live? My brother makes decent money in his mid-20's and _still_ wound up living out of his car for a couple months when his attempt to find something cheaper backfired.

Yesterday actually. Don’t assume you know someone’s position simply because they give you advice you don’t want to hear. I lived in my car for 6 months. I’ve been through tough times, homelessness, home ownership, all of it. Currently I spent the last 9 months trying to find a new place to live.

Plans fail. Have backup plans. Attempting to min max has disadvantages too. My advice has always come from experience and never “this is what they say you should do”. I would not be so presumptuous.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#660

Post by reactordev »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #628
reactordev wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don’t want to hear it. They don’t understand because they haven’t hit middle aged with nothing. Experience is one hell of a teacher and I hope these young professionals realize what’s at stake. There’s no hand outs.

I hope they realize that they are probably going to have to take their fair share with violence because right now that is probably the only thing the wealthy class will listen to

If it has to come to that…

People still have the power. Always have. They just need a reason to wield it.

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