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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#651

Post by jjgreen »

magicloop wrote: post #546
macspoofing wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury You're making it seem that there's a plan ... but what if this is just regular incompetence coupled with capricious behavior from a chaos agent? I'm watching various officials give interviews and all of them are non-committal as it pertains to expectations. Why? Because none of them actually know!!!…

I'd like to expand out why I hold this belief. The political cohort behind the president is roughly in two halves. The first half are the original MAGA crowd (looking out for the working class, pro-liberty, anti-woke, etc.). The second half are the billionaire crowd. The second group are active on pod casts, on Twitter/X, and are partly represented in government (directly or as advisors). An easy way to follow up on…

I wonder who of those will prevail, a second Röhm purge maybe?

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#652

Post by shigawire »

muzani wrote: post #529
slg wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

A lot of this stuff is on a YouTube education level, not even a degree. I would be shocked if the US does not have a bunch of economic advisors who tell them what problems there are and what should be done. They've probably mapped out all the next steps. Most US presidents are Harvard-level smart, but the White House has been around long enough to find a way to deliver reports to the simpler ones. There's a lot of ob…

>I feel like, if anything, he's an overplanner.

Trump is famous for ad libbing and making up whatever he wants in the moment. His first administration was not prepared to govern. I'm not sure how this is seen as over planning.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#653

Post by [deleted] »

magicreadu wrote: post #647
hayst4ck wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

Both you and OP are not looking at this from the right angle. The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping. US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the ha…

[deleted]

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#654

Post by baq »

gsanderson wrote: post #524
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Donald is weak. He was always going to fold. Once China and the EU called his bluff and retaliated, he was done. Lasted less than 24 hours.

The tariffs that he kept on would be nothing to sneeze at in more… civilized times. The market overreacted, as was priced in the vix at 50+. We are not out of the woods yet.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#655

Post by jmyeet »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Uncertainty is a massive problem and may itself bring on a recession more than any tariffs. It's a huge factor in the oil market crash that's currently going on. I've seen one oil expert say that Obama was the best president for the oil industry because he did... nothing. There were no kneejerk policy changes on a weekly basis. And anything requiring large capital investments thrives on certainty.

As for Treasury yields spiking, that was no accident. As part of China's (justified) retaliation to the tariffs, they started selling off 10 year Treasuries intentaionlly to spike the rates because that's one thing the Trump administration seemed to care about.

I still don't know what the endgame is/was here. Some seem to think devaluing the dollar was the goal to boost exports but also to effectively devalue US soverieng debt. There's precedent for this eg FDR's sovereign devaluation of the dollar and Reagan's Plaza Accord.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#656

Post by miltonlost »

alabastervlog wrote: post #597
thfuran wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't pass muster. If they had much interest in balancing the books, they wouldn't be ripping huge holes in revenue collection.

These "here's the actual reason they're doing this!" things rarely hold up under any amount of scrutiny. Then again, they're tempting because the things they're doing are also really bad ways to accomplish Trump's stated goals.

The "actual reason" always seems to be virtuous in the end. Like "omg Trump had such good intentions!!! He just made a lil implementation booboo". It's always giving mountains of good faith to people who have lied for decades and lie today. Nothing about the clear market manipulation or greed of the party.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#657

Post by throw16180339 »

magicreadu wrote: post #647
hayst4ck wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

Both you and OP are not looking at this from the right angle. The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping. US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the ha…

[flagged]

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#658

Post by solfox »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

No. This isn't an economic policy.

It’s time to stop bending over backwards pretending that Trump’s tariff threats are part of a coherent economic strategy. They’re not.

When you drop the economic lens and view tariffs as a political tool for consolidating power, everything suddenly makes sense.

Here’s how it works: - Tariffs hurt corporations. They jack up costs, raise costs. Executives know this. The markets know this. - But there’s a loophole: carve-outs. Trump has the power to exempt individual companies or industries from these tariffs. That means if you’re a CEO and your business is on the line, your only option is to go to Trump and ask for mercy. - That’s not policy. It’s leverage. It creates a system where corporate leaders must show loyalty to get relief. Not because it’s good for the economy, but because it’s good for Trump. Maybe it's public support for his initiatives, attacks on his enemies. Whatever it is, it gives him political power.

This mirrors the playbook used by authoritarian leaders throughout history. Look at Putin. His use of tariffs wasn’t about growing Russia’s economy—it was about punishing enemies, rewarding loyalty, and projecting control. Tariffs became a way to rewire power dynamics.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#659

Post by parliament32 »

java-man wrote: post #135
kart23 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1143082727259... > THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! - @realDonaldTrump today at 6:37 AM PST

How is this legal??

Out of curiosity, on what basis would this be illegal? Given that it was posted publicly and all.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#660

Post by misantroop »

So much different analysis for something as simple as insider trading. Remember, Trump always said stock market performance was everything. Then this week suddenly, stock market doesn't matter. In retrospect, it's all so obvious. Neither me nor anyone else could expect them to be so bold about it.
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