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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#651

Post by rsynnott »

OJFord wrote: post #187
Gregaros wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been seeing people call this GEXIT, or global exit.

As a comparison to Brexit? At what point even momentarily was that in a worse situation, nevermind as an ongoing matter?

Currently, Trump’s tariffs have kinda broken the stock markets, and caused some difficult-to-measure economic damage (investments will have been delayed or cancelled, that sort of thing). If, tomorrow, Trump chokes on a well-done steak, or Congress puts him back in his box (remember, his ability to do _anything_ with tariffs is entirely within the gift of Congress), or otherwise the tariffs go away, then the markets will pretty much spring back, and the economic hit will be small enough that it’s hard to measure.

While estimates of the damage done by Brexit are of course very politically sensitive, nearly everyone agrees that some substantial damage has been done, particularly to trade and jobs (one estimate has the UK with _over 2 million_ fewer jobs today than it would otherwise have, Goldman Sachs says that the UK economy is 5% smaller than it ‘should’ be, etc etc)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#652

Post by rsynnott »

losvedir wrote: post #309
OJFord wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a comparison to Brexit? At what point even momentarily was that in a worse situation, nevermind as an ongoing matter?

Are you pretty young? The narrative when it was happening was pretty catastrophic. I remember reading about people not being able to get prescriptions, for example, because no one knew how imports worked. I don't know how things panned out, but the discussions in the early days around Brexit were absolutely on par or even worse than what we're seeing in these two days of discussions around tariffs.

Note that these tariffs largely don’t take effect til the 9th. That’s when we start seeing what the second-order effects are.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#653

Post by rsynnott »

eddythompson80 wrote: post #477
losvedir wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you pretty young? The narrative when it was happening was pretty catastrophic. I remember reading about people not being able to get prescriptions, for example, because no one knew how imports worked. I don't know how things panned out, but the discussions in the early days around Brexit were absolutely on par or even worse than what we're seeing in these two days of discussions around tariffs.

What? The didn't happen, or it's not how it happened. Are you pretty young to remember Brexit? The UK voted for Brexit in 2016, but it was up to the UK itself to invoke it with the EU. They took almost 4 years to do it in January of 2020 after 4 years of arguing about it with a transition period and trade talks with the EU until the end of 2020. It wasn't a surprise and "no one knew how imports worked". Yeah people o…

> They took almost 4 years to do it in January of 2020 after 4 years of arguing about it with a transition period and trade talks with the EU until the end of 2020.

Oh, longer than that. Some transition arrangements are _still in practice in place_, for instance see https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-brexit-border-checks-dela... . Brexit is not done, yet; things will get worse before they get better.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#654

Post by rsynnott »

OJFord wrote: post #602
lazyasciiart wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vote didn’t implement anything. Britain didn’t actually leave the EU until 2020. Brexit is as of much concern in Britain, still, as Trump is - because it underlies their entire shaken economy. You think some tariffs are bad? Ok now what if Trump simultaneously tore up every trade agreement ? And cancelled the visas of every European citizen in the country, who happened to make up 10% of the medical sector?

Alright take 2020 then: year started $1.32/£, ended at 1.37. The world was shaken by SARS-nCoV-2019, but I do not remember us feeling particularly extra shaken by Brexit crisis. That is not really relevant anyway, the up-thread suggestion was that there was some current ongoing crisis more significant than anything happening in the US. That user didn't even mention Brexit, but if that is what they meant, no, I assure…

Thing is, Brexit didn’t _really_ happen in 2020. The UK was, for practical purposes, in the single market until 2021 under a transition arrangement, and even after that, it kind of petered out over years. Some special arrangements are _still in place_: https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-brexit-border-checks-dela...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#655

Post by rsynnott »

biophysboy wrote: post #154
xnx wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.

Reversing the actions would require either a 2/3 veto proof majority or Trump realizing he is wrong, both of which will probably take a while...

No-one’s seeing the impact yet (except for those who pay day-to-day attention to the markets, but that’s not a huge number of people), because nothing has actually happened yet. The tariffs go into effect on the 9th, and China’s retaliatory tariffs go into effect towards the end of the month; the EU’s retaliation will probably start hitting in May. Over the next month, it is likely that Americans will see prices go up dramatically, and significant job loss is likely. Considering how upset Americans got over expensive eggs, you’ve got to assume every congressperson is about to drown under a sea of angry calls and letters from constituents.

That might actually produce a veto-proof majority for undoing this, quite quickly.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#656

Post by llm_nerd »

outer_web wrote: post #28
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think less 4d chess and more Erlich Bachman school of negotiation. Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

>Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

Has it? To who?

Canada hasn't, and won't, negotiate a single thing. We increased border patrols for a made up problem and thus far it has entirely served to catch guns and drugs and illegals coming from the United States.

The United States has lost tens to hundreds of billions of sales to Canada. They are never, ever coming back.

Trump sabotaged a critical trading relationship in a way that Americans just cannot comprehend, through his laughably stupid "bullying".

Similarly, supposedly Vietnam has come "hat in hand". Vietnam has literally nothing to offer. It has negligible tariffs or blocks on US trade, it just happens to be a poor country. The bullying is utter stupidity.

Mexico thus far has taken being pissed in the face because they're 100% of Trump's purported problem -- from drugs, to migrants to cartels to funnelling Chinese goods, and the likelihood is that Mexico ends up being the biggest beneficiary.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#657

Post by rsynnott »

cgio wrote: post #305
wtcactus wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This all tariff imbecility created solely by Trump it’s atrocious, still, if EU response is to hit the main players in Nasdaq - where there are a lot of chip producers necessary for the ongoing AI revolution - we are just shooting ourselves majorly in the foot. Surely there are much better companies for the EU to apply directed tariffs. EU absolutely has their weaknesses, but giving blunt responses (like China just d…

I would argue that China is just playing the game and EU should do too while it lasts. No time for sophistication in a street fight, this is not chess.

China has latitude in inflicting pain on its own people that the EU does not, and simply mirroring the US’s tariffs would impose significant pain and will not be the EU’s first choice. It may happen anyway, but it’s a harder decision for the EU than for China.

To me, really, the interesting thing is that _the US_ thinks it can do it. Given how annoyed the American public got about expensive eggs, I really question whether that is true; I don’t think people will sit back and go “cool, I can’t afford consumer goods now, and I’ve just lost my job, but it is all part of Dear Leader’s plan.” The idea, which Trump has actually vocalised, that the American public will tolerate pain seems totally at odds with, well, history.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#658

Post by alphabettsy »

fzeroracer wrote: post #193
beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

Donald J. Trump lost an auction in 1988 for a 58-key piano used in the classic film “Casablanca” to a Japanese trading company representing a collector. While he brushed off being outbid, it was a firsthand reminder of Japan’s growing wealth, and the following year, Mr. Trump went on television to call for a 15 percent to 20 percent tax on imports from Japan. “I believe very strongly in tariffs,” Mr. Trump, at the ti…

He’s shown himself to be deeply motivated by petty slights so that makes a lot of sense.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#659

Post by rsynnott »

linotype wrote: post #377

Aren’t the tariffs that the US is imposing half of what other countries have? Or was that fake news from the admin?

Fakest of fake news; no developed country (except a few weird microstates) has effective tariffs higher than about 3%. Bizarrely, he based it on _trade deficits_. Today, only two countries have effective tariffs rates >20% (Bermuda and the Cayman Islands), though it will be three next week.

(Based on the World Bank metric; WTO uses a slightly different metric and says there are three; Bahamas, Sudan and Iran.)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#660

Post by lunarlull »

tasuki wrote: post #640
lunarlull wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the US, a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support owning a house with a yard, a non-working spouse, a car, and multiple children. That was never sustainable in the long run and no one can bring that back.

Why was it not sustainable? Clearly the houses were there, and the non-working spouses, and the car and the children...

It was the US benefiting from its position on the world stage as to why that was possible. The US was never and is not going to retain it's position on the world stage, and indeed under Trump it is radically declining.

The US is going to normalize with other western nations as we enter a multi-polar world.

The problem is Republicans don't accept that and think they can return to the 1950s.

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