651–660 of 1001 posts
90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.
I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong. You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today. I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.
90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.
I think the big picture that many people are missing here is the motivation that all these AI/tech companies have for buying up so many GPU's in the first place: achieving AGI/ASI. And while some still try to portray a dedication/duty to AI Alignment, I think most have either secretly or more publicly moved away from it in the race to become the first to achieve it. And I think, given that inference time compute is s…
That’s spitting distance from “we don’t know”.
I think most of these valuations are made by people without the expertise to predict what the next one year of AI looks like, never mind 3-10 years.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure if I believe it’s bearish, but the PC made computers cheaper and demand exploded, yet wasn’t very good for IBM.
It could have been great for IBM if they had done things differently
NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…
90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
– Michael Crichton (1942-2008)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong. You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today. I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.
> Jevon’s Paradox I've now seen this referenced two dozen times today which is well up from the 0 times I've seen it over the past year. Is there some recent article referencing it that everyone is regurgitating?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you’re wrong and Wallstreet got Deepseek’s impact wrong. You say DeepSeek should decrease Nvidia demand. Wallstreet agreed today. I say DeepSeek should increase Nvidia’s demand due to Jevon’s Paradox.
Long term: Likely true. Short-to-medium term: Nope.
NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…
Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…
But at some point, if the marginal product gets high enough, the world needs not as many, because money spent on other inputs/factors pays off more.
This is a classic problem with extrapolation. Making people more efficient through the use of AI will tend to increase employment... until it doesn't and employment goes off a cliff. Getting more work done per unit of GPU will increase demand for GPUs ... until it doesn't, and GPU demand goes off the cliff.
It's always hard to tell where that cliff is, though.