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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#651

Post by KoolKat23 »

trashtester wrote: post #572
chx wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, that won't happen, the next scam will be different it was crypto until FTX collapsed then the usual suspects led by a16z leaned on OpenAI to rush whatever they had on market hence the odd naming of ChatGPT 3.5. When the hype is finally realized to be just mass printing bullshit -- relevant bullshit, yes, which sometimes can be useful but not bill…

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative. AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more. AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than intern…

I agree with you on the AI point, but with crypto not all is what it seems.

Yes you may have short term growth, this is solely due to there being less regulation.

Despite what many people think regulation is a good thing, put in place to avoid the excesses that lead to lost livelihoods. It stops whales from exploiting the poor, provides tools for central banks to try avoid depressions.

Costs wise, banks acting as trust authorities actually can theoretically be cheaper too.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#652

Post by jorvi »

jameshart wrote: post #589
dgacmu wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computing progress from 78 to 90 was mind-blowing. 1978: the apple ][. 1mhz 8 bit microprocessor, 4kb of ram, monochrome all-,caps display. 1990:Mac IIci, 25mhz 32-bit CPU, 4MB ram, 640x480 color graphics and an easy to use GUI. Ask any of us who used both of these at the time: it was really amazing.

They were amazing, and the progress was incredible, but both of those computers - while equally exciting and delightful to people who saw the potential - were met with ‘but what can I actually use it for?’ from the vast majority of the population. By 1990 home computer use was still a niche interest. They were still toys, mainly. DTP, word processing and spreadsheets were a thing, but most people had little use for t…

> The internet is what changed everything.

Broadband. Dial-up was still too much of an annoyance, too expensive.

Once broadband was ubiquitous in the US and Europe, that's when the real explosion of computer usage happened.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#653

Post by sonofaragorn »

loopdoend wrote: post #388
nightowl_games wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't a company like that get a huge tax benefit from the SRED program?

The amount of paperwork involved makes it unworkable

Not true. I've done SRED every year for the past ~7 years. It is work, but there are specialized consultants that do most of it. If the work is truly R&D (which would be the case for a cutting-edge AI company) and you track your work in JIRA or something like that, then it's mostly just writing a few pages describing the efforts.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#654

Post by trashtester »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #645
varjag wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI in the past (adjusted for 1980s) was pretty well funded. It's just that fundamental scientific discovery bears little relationship to the pallets of cash.

Funding in the 1980s was sometimes very good. My company bought me an expensive Lisp Machine in 1982 and after that, even in “AI winters” it mostly seemed that money was available. AI has a certain mystique that helps get money. In the 1980s I was on a DARPA neural network tools advisory panel, and I concurrently wrote a commercial product that included the 12 most common network architectures. That allowed me to ste…

That funding may have felt good at the time compared to some other academic fields.

But compared to the 100s of billions (possibly trillions, globally) that is currently being plowed into AI, that's peanuts.

I think the closest recent analogy to the current spending on AI, was the nuclear arms race during the cold war.

If China is able to field ASI before the US even have full AGI, nukes may not matter much.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#655

Post by sonofaragorn »

izend wrote: post #366
snowbyte wrote: post #365

When walking around the U of Toronto, I often think that ~10 years ago Ilya was in a lab next to Alex trying to figure things out. I can't believe this new AI wave started there. Ilya, Karpathy, Jimmy Ba, and many more were at the right time when Hinton was there too.

And none of them build AI companies in Toronto. I’m Canadian and disappointed at how ineffective we are at building successful companies.

Aidan Gomez, Nick Frost, and Ivan Zhang, all of whom were Hinton's students at UofT started Cohere (https://cohere.com/about)

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#656

Post by trashtester »

jedrek wrote: post #582
trashtester wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative. AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more. AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than intern…

AI? Yes. LLMs pretending to be AI? No.

What you call "AI" is generally named AGI. LLM's are alredy a kind of AI, not just generic enough to fully replace all humans.

We don't know if full AGI can be built using just current technology (like transformers) given enough scale, or if 1 or more fundamental breakthroughs are needed beyond just the scale.

My hypothesis has always been that AGI will arrive roughly when the compute power and model size matches the human brain. That means models of about 100 trillion params, which is not that far away now.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#658

Post by Jensson »

Zambyte wrote: post #621
fprog wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except OpenAI hasn’t yet finished discovery on its true goal: AGI. I wonder if they risk plateauing at a local maximum.

I'm genuinely curious: what do you expect an "AGI" system to be able to do that we can't do with today's technology?

An AGI could replace human experts at tasks that doesn't require physical embodiment, like diagnosing patients, drafting contracts, doing your taxes etc. If you still do those manually and not just offload all of it to ChatGPT then you would greatly benefit from a real AGI that could do those tasks on their own.

And no, using ChatGPT like you use a search engine isn't ChatGPT solving your problem, that is you solving your problem. ChatGPT solving your problem would mean it drives you, not you driving it like it works today. When I hired people to help me do taxes they told me what papers they needed and then they did my taxes correctly without me having to look it through and correct them, an AGI would work like that for most tasks, it means you no longer need to think or learn to solve problems since the AGI solves them for you.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#659

Post by casebash »

can16358p wrote: post #407
Tenoke wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ilya cares about AI Safety and AGI. Meta's whole positioning is to dismiss it. No way he goes there.

Perhaps that's exactly why he might go there: to change it for a reason (a new company path long term, or just upcoming potential regulations etc.) I don't believe it either, but in case it happened, it might make some sense that way.

Not possible because they've got LeCun.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#660

Post by chasd00 »

KennyFromIT wrote: post #251
chasd00 wrote: post #245

I wonder if he thinks LLMs are an AGI dead end and he's not interested in selling a product. There's some academic papers floating around coming to the same conclusion (no links. sorry, studying for a cert exam).

Yeah, I study* that way too. *procrastinate

> Yeah, I study* that way too

I’m not the only one?

So this is what it’s like when doves cry! - Milhouse

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