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Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

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Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#651
This is somewhat ingenious.

Microsoft holds the keys to almost all endeavors of OpenAI. Soon, such privileges will also be enjoyed by Altman and Brockman.

Concurrently, it seems reasonable to speculate that their stint at Microsoft might not be drawn-out, as startup prodigies are often not inclined to work in such established firms.

They have the chance to achieve stability, leverage OpenAI’s invaluable data and models devoid of any expenditure, access Microsoft's GPUs at minimal cost, and eventually set up another venture. As a result, Microsoft stands to gain a substantial equity stake in the new enterprise.

While Altman requires no financial backing from Microsoft, the corporation now has an invaluable direct link to OpenAI.

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#652

In 1990 Microsoft hired all of the important talent from Borland who up until that point had been outpacing them in terms of product development. We got Access, Visual Studio, and .Net / C# as a direct result. Borland faded into obscurity. Hard not to feel like there will be a parallel here.

That was 33 years ago. What's the point of lingering on a potential parallel there? If it does go that way, how could you call it anything but a coincidence considering all the counter examples in Microsoft's history?

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#654
post #640

I don't buy into the whole AGI hyper-hypewave, but on the off chance that we're somehow heading towards it with these fancy chatbots we have, what a depressing fucking outcome it's gonna be if Micro$oft of all things is the one in control of it. We really are entering the dystopia of the cartoonishly evil megacorp enslaving all of humanity to make the graph go up by 1.2%.

Could have been worse. Could have been google. This way at least there are two big dogs

Microsoft and OpenAI? Microsoft and Anthropic?

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#655
post #288

I don’t quite buy your Cyberpunk utopia where the Megacorp finally rids us of those pesky ethics qualms (or ”shackles“, as you phrased it.) Microsoft can now proceed without the guidance of a council that actually has humanities interests in mind, not only those of Microsoft shareholders. I don’t know whether all that caution will turn out to have been necessary, but I guess we’re just gleefully heading into whatever…

I am not claiming how right or wrong the final outcome would be, but owning the technology with a clear "for-profit" objective is definitely a better structure for Microsoft and for Sam Altman as well (considering, his plans for the future). I have no opinion on AI risk. I just think that a super valuable technology under a non-profit objective was simply an untenable structure, regardless of potential threats.

This was essentially already in the cards as a possible outcome when Microsoft made it's big investment in OpenAI, so in my view it was a reasonable outcome at this juncture as well. For Microsoft, it's just Nokia in reverse.

If you looked at sama's actions and not his words, he seems intent on maximizing his power, control and prestige (new yorker profile, press blitzes, making a constant effort to rub shoulders with politicians/power players, worldcoin etc). I think getting in bed with Microsoft with the early investment would have allowed sama to entertain the possibility that he could succeed Satya at Microsoft some time in the distant future; that is, in the event that OpenAI never became as big or bigger than Microsoft (his preferred goal presumably) -- and everything else went mostly right for him. After all, he's always going on about how much money is needed for AGI. He wanted more direct access to the money. Now he has it.

Ultimately, this shows how little sama cared for the OpenAI charter to begin with, specifically the part about benefiting all humanity and preventing an unduly concentration of power. He didn’t start his own separate company because the talent was at OpenAI. He wanted to poach the talent, not obey the charter.

Peter Hintjens (ZeroMQ, RIP) wrote a book called "The Psychopath Code", where he posits that psychopaths are attracted to jobs with access to vulnerable people [0]. Selfless talented idealists who do not chase status and prestige can be vulnerable to manipulation. Perhaps that's why Musk pulled out of OpenAI, him and sama were able to recognize the narcissist in each other and put their guard up accordingly. As Altman says, "Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.”[1] Perhaps this apply to him as well.

Amusingly, someone recently posted an old tweet by pg: "The most surprising thing I've learned from being involved with nonprofits is that they are a magnet for sociopaths."[1] As others in the thread noted, if true, it's up for debate whether this applies more to sama or Ilya. Time will tell I guess.

It'll also be interesting to see what assurances were given to sama et al about being exempt from Microsoft's internal red tape. Prior to this, Microsoft had at least a little plausible deniability if OpenAI was ever embroiled in controversy regarding its products. They won't have that luxury with sama's team in-house anymore.

[0] https://hintjens.gitbooks.io/psychopathcode/content/chapter8...

[1] https://archive.is/uUG7H#selection-2071.78-2071.166

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38339379

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#656

Have to give it to Satya. There's a thin possibility that Microsoft would have to write-off its whole $10B (or more?) investment in OpenAI, but that isn't Satya's focus. The focus is on what he can do next. Maybe, recruit the most formidable AI team in the world, removed from the shackles of an awkward non-profit owning a for-profit company? Give enough (cash) incentives and most of OpenAI employees would have no qua…

Agreed, Satya is a first rate executive, other than Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX, I can't really think of anyone in the same league. There was a lot of discussion on HN the past few days regarding the importance (or lack thereof) of a CEO to an organization. It may be the case that most executives are interchangeable and attributing success to them is not merited, but in the case of the aforementioned, I think it is mer…

Tim Cook is not in the same league?

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#657
post #8

Anyone else find it strange that startup founders of the magnitude of Sam & Greg would join a gigantic corporation as employees? It sounds very out of line of what you'd expect.

In the end it's just labels. What matters is what kind of funds will they be given, what they can work on, what sort of control they have over it.

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#658
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leadership - To stay top of the game, you can't just rely on brunch of engineers, but a person/team to pull everything into shape. Seeing how many employees are leaving for sama, you get the sense.

what leadership? what examples of his leadership have been visible to the outside world? as far as I can tell, his entire career was: 1. failed startup 1. YC staff member 1. very creepy cryptocurrency grifter 1. openai ceo where has he demonstrated such enormous value?

In the last day this site has been all about him. That goes to tell you the mindshare he commands. This was a major victory orchestrated by Satya.

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#659
I would expect most people to be concerned about how AGI can be really useful to most of humanity without creating power concentration and more inequality, but these goals seem to be implicitly conflated for some reason with the value of MS stock and Sam Altman's and others' career paths. At least those seem to be the emphasis of most of the drama; admittedly they are much simpler and familiar topics to tackle than what path forward would better suit humanity as a whole.

Re: Sam Altman, Greg Brockman and others to join Microsoft

#660
What do you think Microsoft's medium to long term plan is? Will they clone GPT-x and use their own copy? Will they make their own model and train it from scratch? Will these former OpenAI people start with commercial LLMs like they were doing at OAI, or do you think they want to concentrate on AGI that are a more long-term project?
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