651–660 of 1001 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Penicillin has gotta be on that list. Just randomly happened to culture on a Petri dish left out on vacation, happened to be the worlds first antibiotic
I can't imagine what it must have been like for people to hear about yet another "miracle drug" that cures most diseases – and then gradually realize that this one actually works.
and you CAN imagine it : Viagra
The last week reminds me of the story of Bardeen & Brattain's invention of the transistor (e.g. in The Idea Factory ). It barely worked and heaven forbid you bump the table. There was even a third slighted figure who wanted credit. Part of me wants to be skeptical but OTOH if it's hard to reproduce that seems totally normal. How exciting that some other people have got it working now.
Things also tend to be invented at about the same time at different places. I wonder if there are other people who were this close to invent it but just couldn't get it right.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can one know how many people are in that market? When prediction markets where mentioned early during the LK-99 story, I looked a bit around out of interest, which platforms exist, which topics they cover, how many people participate in that markets. Where I could find the number of predictors, it seemed pretty underwhelming - one, ten, fifty, a hundred, I think the highest I ever saw was a bit over a thousand, but e…
I wanted to bet 10$ or so, but the two links above both seem to be some sort of cryptocurrency thing. I dunno, isn’t there a way to gamble on the future that isn’t so… shifty?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> this pushes my odds above 50% for the first time. Time for you to make some money then? :D https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor...
Can one know how many people are in that market? When prediction markets where mentioned early during the LK-99 story, I looked a bit around out of interest, which platforms exist, which topics they cover, how many people participate in that markets. Where I could find the number of predictors, it seemed pretty underwhelming - one, ten, fifty, a hundred, I think the highest I ever saw was a bit over a thousand, but e…
One somewhat ironic fact of this story is that the rogue former employee perhaps deserves some credit for bringing this thing out into the world. They had been working on this for quite a long time themselves, rightfully so. But now the whole world is working on it and exploring other methods and combinations of materials I would assume (to improve upon the original design and avoid any patents). How long would they…
I think there are multiple big reasons they didn't publish sooner. It is pretty clear that they were convinced, but had insufficient evidence to convince others. Additionally there had recently been a sensational fraud in their field so journals would have been extremely sceptical. It seems to me they were just in the process of constructing a convincing paper, which included convincing tests and could have been acom…
The only problem would be if they worded it in a sensational way without evidence to backup their claims like almost all battery tech seems to be these days "we discovered a solid state battery that will change the world, make EVs, flying planes, ships, trucks and remote control toys orders of magnitude cheaper, faster, safer blah blah ** once we figure out how to get it working in real world conditions and test it for real. We were talking about possibilities extrapolated from our little theoretical progress."
I still believe the scientific community is smart and moral to accept statements held true by evidence. Scoffs are reserved for hyperbolic claims.
To make my argument, see the recent paper on achieving energy positive nuclear fusion - the authors didnt wait until they could achieve Nett energy positive condition (where total energy to the system is lower than what was produced). They published when they achieved energy to the reaction < energy output from the reaction which was a big deal in itself eventhough the practical goal would be achieved in future by building upon this..
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can one know how many people are in that market? When prediction markets where mentioned early during the LK-99 story, I looked a bit around out of interest, which platforms exist, which topics they cover, how many people participate in that markets. Where I could find the number of predictors, it seemed pretty underwhelming - one, ten, fifty, a hundred, I think the highest I ever saw was a bit over a thousand, but e…
Manifolds main market on LK99 has 4.6k predictors now. This is a pretty strict version, at 33% now by 2025 https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Anti-gravity 2. Light year capable transport 3. Inertia dampers 4. Mass scale carbon capture technology 5. Robots to prepare space for habitation 6. World recognition to manage resources globally
> 6. World recognition to manage resources globally Do you mean communism?
I have no reason to doubt the quality or integrity of research published elsewhere but I would love to see some research from multiple sources including a diverse geography.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A minor observation - pretty much all of those describe a type where applicable, except for iPhone. "Smartphone" would have been consistent and more accurate. I don't know if that's a bias or proofreading issue. It's an interesting and thought-provoking list though.
Smartphones existed before the iPhone, but Apple blew the market open.