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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#651

Post by xyzzyz »

rnk wrote: post #645
skhr0680 wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blockading Taiwan would require cooperation from Japan, and that's not going to happen

And also the US. China would have to immediately use the "do what we say or we'll nuke you" to keep the world out of helping Taiwan.

Why nuke? Why assume that China cannot achieve military success using conventional means?

Observe that "the world" will not be helping Taiwan. India won't. Russia won't. Brazil won't. Nigeria won't. Pakistan won't. Bangladesh won't. Nigeria won't. You get the drill. US will, and probably Europe too, but why assume that these will 1) be able to defeat China in a conventional war in its own back yard, and 2) will even try to do so?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#652

Post by [deleted] »

undersuit wrote: post #613
tobyjsullivan wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strategies like this are how you end up with warehouses full of rusting parts. Government-funded overproduction leads to stockpiling at the taxpayer's expense. It's been done many times before (weapons, food, etc.) and always leads to the exact same result: garbage heaps and no available resources when they're actually needed. Offering companies grants and favors to encourage building real, sustainable, on-shore busi…

>Offering companies grants and favors to encourage building real, sustainable, on-shore businesses has a much higher likelihood of success. So I'm arguing we should over-produce infrastructure and you're arguing we should over-produce capacity? OK but you have to continue offering the favors else the on-shore companies are just going to fold up when times get tough. In a catastrophic event though I argue the over-pro…

[deleted]

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#653

Post by rnk »

xyzzyz wrote: post #651
rnk wrote: post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also the US. China would have to immediately use the "do what we say or we'll nuke you" to keep the world out of helping Taiwan.

Why nuke? Why assume that China cannot achieve military success using conventional means? Observe that "the world" will not be helping Taiwan. India won't. Russia won't. Brazil won't. Nigeria won't. Pakistan won't. Bangladesh won't. Nigeria won't. You get the drill. US will, and probably Europe too, but why assume that these will 1) be able to defeat China in a conventional war in its own back yard, and 2) will even…

Good point, it would not be the world. In short, the free countries of the world will come together to protect a democracy from tyranny. Yes, this is imperfect, lots of small countries were not protected, we protect the "good ones" which is unfairly decided.

The democratic countries will come together, the same ones that helped Ukraine; delete from that list authoritarian (democratic or not) countries, and democracies that are led by authoritarian dictator wanna-bes (so if Trump comes back he'd be conflicted, because he loves authoritarian power, but indicated his displeasure with China). Probably not Hungry. Russia doesn't matter if they aren't nuking you. India, there is the authoritarian bent the country it is on - non Hindu people aren't feeling so happy about their country. I'd think India will feel torn because they want to fight Pakistan freely but don't want to increase the power of China. Brazil is another partially fallen democratic country, wonder how that vote will turn out at the end of Oct.

There are two reasons those countries will help Taiwan - because they don't want authoritarian dictators to take over democracies, and because Ukraine reminded us all of the importance of stopping dictators - we can't wait for them to decide they have enough. It's over 80 years since the last time the world went through it, German and Japan were the original threats (with Italy and a few others), now it's China and Russia. The chip making part of Taiwan will all be decimated in the first few hours of a war (you thought that would be one of my reasons to intervene ;-)). It will be re-created bit after bombing it and damage and just losing power it will be hugely weakened, hurting both sides.

Ukraine showed how much more powerful the militaries of the western alliances are. I'm sure China will not be so weak and kleptocratically weakened as Russia was, but they haven't been in battles recently so they will need some ramping up to really organize. I'm sure China will be able to do major damage to navys trying to operate around Taiwan, sink a few us carriers. But the US and the other western countries are about a lot more and they can operate in countries around there.

China is a powerful country, they have brilliant engineers and scientists and that economy and a vast population. They are not to be under-estimated. The world must move forward to promote democracy and stop dictators.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#654

Post by kamaal »

Sakos wrote: post #202
sylware wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it means that chinese SMIC announced '7nm' implies they have EUV working?

No, they don't have EUV. They have 7nm which they're doing with DUV, but they're hitting the same issues Intel did with abysmal yields and there's no guarantee that SMIC will be able to solve something Intel was never able to.

They do have EUV machines, albeit unreliable. Like you yourself mentioned the yields are the problem here.

This is really more of an engineering problem, you need more cycles for quality and reliability. But it's not something unsurmountable. Intel had no reason to try hard enough, Intel is never going to get sanctioned.

'Necessity is the mother of all innovation' might come to play here. If it comes down to living vs dying, people go to no ends to make things happen.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#655

Post by tsimionescu »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #567
tsimionescu wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For China it's about nationalism, for US it's about protecting allies/upholding treaties and protecting democracy from the strongest authoritarian regime. I doubt this is true for China (I very much suspect economic concerns trump any other concerns for them as well), but I am quite convinced you are wrong about the USA - one of the biggest supporters of non-democratic regimes in the world. There is little in US hi…

one of the biggest supporters of non-democratic regimes in the world... ...to fight the spread of Communism.

How is supporting Saudi Arabia helping fight the spread of Communism?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#656

Post by shitpostbot »

steve_taylor wrote: post #608
Balgair wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

National security. TSMC is one of the key players in the 21st century. As we've seen with the supply chain issues from covid and the Ukrainian conflict, high quality semiconductors are a vital resource for modern nations' security and economies. TSMC is the only entity that can make the highest quality chips (3nm being not actually 3nm, but just called that way for marketing purposes). If Taiwan looses that unique ab…

That’s quite the gamble. If a competitor develops a 5nm capability, Taiwan and TSMC are both screwed. The fact that only TSMC in Taiwan has this capability makes Taiwan a jucier target for the CCP. All this talk of reunification may be little more than a power grab. Control the best semiconductors, control the world.

No post body was provided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#657

Post by missedthecue »

elsonrodriguez wrote: post #650
missedthecue wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan imports 60-70% of it's food and they can't increase domestic production because they import fertilizer and they can't make their own fertilizer because they import natural gas, and they don't have any domestic gas fields. China doesn't need to storm the beaches, they can passively blockade Taiwan until they give in.

Taiwan has hundreds of anti ship misiles with a range of over 100km. China doesn’t have to storm beaches to be within shooting range. If Taiwan were an easy conquest it would have been conquered. It’s not impossible that China would attempt some sort of belligerence, but Taiwan is capable responding to any threat with enough firepower to deter such actions.

You don't need ships to blockade

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#658

Post by NavinF »

ThatMedicIsASpy wrote: post #391
NavinF wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're waiting for a "payable video card" after prices crashed to an all time low? There are 3090s getting dumped for <$800 now. Is a 50% drop not enough for you?

That's a 3090 with terrible power draw. Not a decent 200-300€ card

The power limit is adjustable lol. It will perform a lot better than say a 3060 at the same power limit.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#659

Post by NavinF »

svnt wrote: post #83
NavinF wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lay off the shrooms for a bit.

Explain where you think he is wrong.

That's the problem. He's not even wrong. That whole comment is just incoherent rambling.

What does the Pico have to do with RPi shortages? Why would anyone buy a rPi400 as a RPi replacement? WTF does 30 year old DEC tech have to do with today's Intel? Why force Apple to sell consumer chips and how does he think that's gonna work out in the long run when all the software required to use them is single-source?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#660

Post by totalZero »

lvl102 wrote: post #47

Intel messed up big time and I hate to see the US govt dump more money on incompetence. They are failing their way to success.

It would be stupendously bad judgment to permit the semiconductor fabrication industry to exist with no redundancy whatsoever. Tail risk is ever present and the tails seem to be getting fatter every day.
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