651–660 of 698 posts
Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.
The Federal Reserve Bank system was supposed to prevent busts. We've had some pretty big ones recently - 2000, 2008, 2022. Let's face it. The FRB cannot stop busts. The real reason for the FRB is so the federal government can inflate the currency.
I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…
I wonder to what degree generational culture plays a part. My father, for example (born pre-WWII), would never buy growth stocks. Not even when he was young. He bought only dividend yielding stocks, reinvested 100% of the dividends and never sold anything until his retirement. My generation (X) has a more balanced approach, with a mix of growth and value stocks dependent on risk tolerance, trending toward value stock…
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> The stock market as a whole will always bounce back Japan is the common counterexample. It is entirely possible the stock market will stagnate in the future as the era of American economic hegemony comes to an end.
> Japan is the common counterexample. That only provides a counter example to investing all your money into a single country. Unless you think every stock market in the world is going to do poorly, that's a reason to buy a globally diversified index fund (like VT), so even if American economic hegemony ends, you can pick up on growth of other countries.
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I sure hope so because I'm out here reading Stroustrup and CLRS to start a career at 30. But it really seems like there's a glut of tech companies with investment capital paying people 300k to make apps for stuff that's trivial. Juicero tier stuff, all over the place. I worry it will collapse and SWE is gonna be your run of the mill 45k job from then on.
I don't think so.. good software engineers are still somewhat rare and you need good ones to not blow up your code base once it reaches a certain size/complexity. Any high school kid can make a website, but if you want your app to grow for 3 or more years, it has to be built well-ish.
My view is that capital and investment will dry up and companies that are operating at a loss(many in tech right now) will either have to downsize or close up completely. This will cause a domino effect. People will lose jobs, and some of those people will have bought a million dollar shack in the past 2 years and they might have to sell at a loss or foreclose. Generally I think we have yet to see any real macroecono…
That could be true but the impact would still be limited compared to 2008. Credit/bank failures are far worse for the general economy than some tech startups failing.
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what's the most expensive SaaS that other SaaS use out there? The first one to go? I'm thinking distributed tracing companies are going to get pwn'd
AWS & Salesforce are among the most expensive for saas, those aren’t going anywhere
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I look forward to this. Atm there are benefits to owning multiple houses... [alef] [bet] [Alef] https://www.realtor.com/advice/finance/second-home-tax-benef... [Bet] https://homeguides.sfgate.com/tax-deduction-multiple-homes-m...
Why do they do this? Why do they just keep pulling on the benefits to people that already have enough?
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The Taylor rule gives the math behind it, but the layman's explanation is that as long as rates are lower than inflation, you turn a profit by borrowing money and buying a basket of assets, since their price will rise alongside inflation. This incentivizes people to borrow more money, which increases the money supply, which further exacerbates inflation. This is the first term 'p' in the Taylor rule, which corrects t…
> you turn a profit by borrowing money and buying a basket of assets, since their price will rise alongside inflation That explanation doesnt make sense when the basket of assets has a expiration date and/or significant storage or maintenance costs.
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The war isn't over because Putin doesn't care what the costs are. It's not sustainable though. Ukraine will keep fighting and the west will keep supporting it. What are Russia's options? So sure, not decisively defeated. It's not like the entire Russian army was wiped out and Ukrainians are marching in Moscow. But still defeated for all intents and purposes and all around loss (world status, material etc.). This has…
> What are Russia's options? My prediction is that they’re going to take the Russian speaking portions of the country as they originally laid out. That’s effective up to the middle of the country. If Ukraine keeps fighting they may take Odessa and leave Ukraine without a sea port. That’s something like 60-70% of Ukraine’s GDP btw. Russians have already captured 30% of Ukrainian GDP. I don’t think that’s a loss by any…
The Russians have also used up most of the precision guided weapons and are having to resort to using unguided bombs and rockets for the majority of their attacks. With sanctions in place, they won't be able to replace these weapon stocks due to their reliance on Western electronics.
Russia didn't go into this war trying to liberate the Donbas; and if fact most of the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine have turned against Russia. Russia wanted the entire country and failed.
And Russia will shortly have two new NATO members on its borders. That's a huge geopolitical failure. Russia has instantly strengthened and rejuvenated NATO with its invasion of Ukraine.
But you keep pushing that Russian Success Strategy. We'll see how things pan out by August.