Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place • Hacker News Board

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#651

Post by chii » Sat, May 14, 2022, 2:47 AM UTC

gonzo41 wrote: post #92

lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…

> really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects

give me an example of large infrastructure projects like this. The only examples i can think of are things which gov't fund via tax payer money, and don't expect to be able to reap private profit off; things like roads, rail, electrification of the grid etc.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#652

Post by hnov » Sat, May 14, 2022, 2:48 AM UTC

dreamcompiler wrote: post #575

abzolv wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If average Jane, who is not a raving Tesla fan, wants to spend circa $140K on an EV, and she has to choose between the Mercedes EQS 580 and the Tesla Model X, which one would you say is the no-brainer (better value for money)? https://www.mbusa.com/en/vehicles/class/eqs/sedan https://www.tesla.com/modelx That is the future of Tesla. Increasing competition by better products offered by manufacturers with far more expe…

It is indeed a no-brainer. The Tesla wins hands down. I've owned many very good German cars for the last 30 years and loved them, but my Model Y makes them all seem quaint and obsolete. --Electric cars don't need dealers. I want to be able to buy a car online without spending an hour kicking gravel and haggling with some commissioned salesperson over the price. --Electric cars don't need as much service as ICE cars,…

It’s not snobbery, as a luxury car a Tesla is unimpressive. The styling and interior quality is comparable to a Mazda, not a Mercedes. I’m not a fan of the giant tablet for controls unless the car genuinely drives itself, even a generation old BMW’s iDrive 6 paired with carplay is preferable for me. They’re really different categories of product, IMO a Chevy Bolt is closer in spirit to a model 3 than a 3 series is.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#653

Post by richiebful1 » Sat, May 14, 2022, 2:51 AM UTC

chiefalchemist wrote: post #618

chiefalchemist wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, The Fed goes over the top with what they can do and Congress refuses to lean in on its supervision of The Fed. Imagine that. You refuse to do your job and you still have a job. Only in America.

Dear Down-voter Congress has the power to monitor and "regulate" The Fed. That is, The Fed is not - or isn't supposed to be - completely autonomous. It has oversight, or should. The reality is, it does not. Congress lets The Fed run wild. That might be the status quo, but it's not how it legally needs to be. So yes, Congress isn't doing their job. And no one (read: the media) is questioning that negligence. Again, on…

Even more, Congress just elected Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell to another term in office. If they were unhappy with him, they'd fire him

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#654

Post by DangitBobby » Sat, May 14, 2022, 2:51 AM UTC

mupuff1234 wrote: post #491

labcomputer wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would be shocked if they were able to maintain those margins. I wouldn't be. They have fundamental and very broad patents on important things like: * Pre-heating the battery on the way to a charging stop (enables the battery to accept faster charging without damage on road trips) * Using motor waste heat for battery heating (increases range while use the above strategy) * Dynamically adjusting charge rates due to…

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you

Good. The fact that very specific mechanisms that anyone could have thought of for something everyone understands is beneficial (keeping your battery warm) is patentable to begin with is... not great.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#655

Post by thoms_a » Sat, May 14, 2022, 2:58 AM UTC

chiefalchemist wrote: post #618

chiefalchemist wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, The Fed goes over the top with what they can do and Congress refuses to lean in on its supervision of The Fed. Imagine that. You refuse to do your job and you still have a job. Only in America.

Dear Down-voter Congress has the power to monitor and "regulate" The Fed. That is, The Fed is not - or isn't supposed to be - completely autonomous. It has oversight, or should. The reality is, it does not. Congress lets The Fed run wild. That might be the status quo, but it's not how it legally needs to be. So yes, Congress isn't doing their job. And no one (read: the media) is questioning that negligence. Again, on…

Not a down-voter and I agree with your positions, but why stop at congressional oversight? Why should a private company [1] be controlling a nation's money supply?

1. https://publicbankinginstitute.org/money-banking-basics/

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#656

Post by thoms_a » Sat, May 14, 2022, 3:04 AM UTC

boucher wrote: post #402

im_down_w_otp wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The central bank doesn't control policies like that though. They have scant few actual knobs to turn on their own without Congressional intervention.

The fed actually has more tools than the ones it currently uses, some of which have been used in the past. Robert Hockett has written a lot about productive investments via the federal reserve banks, and how that could be used to transform the economy. Here's one recent paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4023614 He wrote a short book about it as well: https://www.amazon.com/Financing-Green-New…

Indeed, and since it is a privately owned entity [1] with a figurehead appointed by a politician to give the illusion of public accountability, the Fed has very little incentive to do anything but enrich its shareholders: private banks.

"Liberal Democracy" is all theatre, all the time. It is a plutocracy with an extremely advanced propaganda arm designed to fool even the most intelligent observer, as can be seen by the high degree of trust placed in the system by my esteemed colleagues here at HN.

Alas, we get the rulers we deserve.

1. https://publicbankinginstitute.org/money-banking-basics/

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#657

Post by chii » Sat, May 14, 2022, 3:06 AM UTC

wrycoder wrote: post #628

SauciestGNU wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

Thirty years ago in Massachusetts, if you had DMV business, you just walked in, waited half an hour, and conducted your business. And we complained about that. Things have not improved, to say the least.

i think the OP's efficiency reference isn't talking about the user's efficiency in using the service, but the cost-based efficiency; aka, how much budget the DMV has, vs how much "work" they produce.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#658

Post by FunnyBadger » Sat, May 14, 2022, 3:09 AM UTC

Economics is like gravity - what goes up must ALWAYS come down. It's only a matter of time.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#659

Post by thoms_a » Sat, May 14, 2022, 3:10 AM UTC

arminiusreturns wrote: post #409

WalterBright wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I'm aware of the legal fiction that they are not part of the government. But they are, as they are run by people appointed by the government, and therefore serve the government.

I rather think the fiction is that they serve the government, but I also have The Creature from Jekyll Island in the backseat for light reading so my perspective probably is heavily biased.

You aren't biased at all [1]. Our dear colleagues (along with the majority of the American populace) are just deeply ideologically committed to the idea of the Federal Reserve being a public institution, because they've been told this implicitly all their lives.

The truth, which is difficult to uncover and requires digging into some legislation, is of course unsettling, because it points to the nature of the American system and which institutions have power. Hint: if an institution is immune to bankruptcy or prosecution, it's probably the one in charge.

1. https://publicbankinginstitute.org/money-banking-basics/

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#660

Post by chii » Sat, May 14, 2022, 3:15 AM UTC

Ekaros wrote: post #535

sgc wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. I for one am very happy with the wider EV push, because I will never need to buy a Tesla. I am sure many other people have similar sentiments. Obviously they are valued for their batteries and solar as well, but their business model and product offerings there are far from a fit for everybody either. It all does not add up to current value, although it is hard to see where the mad dash to buy "the future^TM"…

Solar is race to bottom, very low margin competition with Chinese manufactures. Batteries will follow as well. And if that was really going great why did SolarCity get bailed out by Tesla money? I would have expected it to be a massive company as well. Also, I never really understood robotaxis as something magical high margin business. It is also race to bottom operating with very thing margins. And probably only aft…

The way i can see robotaxis getting out of the thin-margin category is to ensure they have proprietary AI etc for the nagivation and safety.

This way, there would be a huge barrier for entry to any competition, and they can keep the price high.

And thus, i would want to see the gov't set legislation to prevent this from happening - the AI and navigation software must be made open (ostensibly for audit purposes...but it would be something that is hard to prove you've copied it?). After all, the thin margins of such a business means benefits to society at large.