Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces • Hacker News Board

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#651

Post by rmk » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:46 AM UTC

throw10920 wrote: post #423

ethbr0 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China invading Taiwan at some point in the future And that's the perspective this should be viewed from. The US may not have a firm interest in Ukraine. The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. The US has a serious interest in Korea, Japan, and the countries bordering the South China Sea. You have to strongly and unconditionally support international order re: Ukraine, so that Xi takes away the right message.

> The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. Why only "fairly firm"? I've heard arguments that if Taiwan is invaded and TSMC falls under PRC control, then the US faces massive chip shortages for years (possibly leading to riots and a destabilized government), and those seem plausible to me.

It is my understanding that TSMC has made arrangements to scuttle their facilities in this eventuality, denying invaders the technology.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#652

Post by trashtester » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:46 AM UTC

heartbreak wrote: post #561

chewz wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every Russian general is born with the ambition of driving his tanks to the Atlantic Ocean. And that won't be much different from what Tsar Alexander did in 1812/1813 with similiar meager resources. So yes, Putin probably is considering this scenario at least in his wet dreams... And it seems like largest country in Europe (by area), with 200 thousand strong army, tons od most sophisticated NATO weapons and 8 years o…

It’s a bit of a stretch to claim that Ukraine has collapsed. They’re massively outgunned, yet they’re still standing 24 hours later.

The balance of power is similar to Poland in 1939. I expect it will take approx 2 weeks (1-3) for Putin to force the last regular Ukrainian army unit to lay down their arms, if their leaders don't surrender before that time.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#653

Post by queuebert » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:55 AM UTC

trashtester wrote: post #576

baybal2 wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cold war high side estimate was 50M if the West lets USSR to expend the whole of its arsenal on USA standing, doing nothing. Recent figures I read were 20M-40M for worst case scenarios. Realistically, a coordinated all in launch is ~1000 warheads, with 400 of them megaton scale in R36 MIRVs from West Siberia. First strike is only possible with computerised launch infrastructure operational. Beheading the command…

My numbers included the arsenals of all countries, and casualties for all reasons, including the direct blast, fallout, breakdown of infrastructure, the possibility of a nuclear winter, reduced food production, etc. Even people in areas with no nukes, little fallout and not affected by nuclear winter could face mass starvation due to lack of fertilizers, diesel, spare parts for machines, etc. Even in North America, E…

Exactly. I bet most of us on HN live in large cities and will be killed in the first strike.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#654

Post by csee » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:57 AM UTC

lordnacho wrote: post #477

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

The problem is, it'll be the crazy one that uses those one or two nukes first. What then?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#655

Post by whoisthemachine » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:58 AM UTC

aksss wrote: post #557

DubiousPusher wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no precedent in human history for two fairly equal powers engaging in a conflict and one side refusing in totality to use almost any weapon at its disposal and certainly not one that an enemy has already used. Japan did not nuke America back in 1945 because it did not have a nuke and had lost all air superiority.

I may get downvoted into oblivion for saying this, but -- I think it's wishful thinking to imagine soldiers will make the 'right' decision when the call comes. During the Tiananmen Square debacle/massacre, interviews with people there indicate that many/most never imagined the "people's" army would act against them - they were considered on the same side. Yet act against them they did. Similarly, I think you see some…

It's one thing to kill an "other", without much risk to yourself, but another thing entirely to risk your own self and your own loved ones with MAD.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#656

Post by csee » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:59 AM UTC

bragr wrote: post #433

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but somebody has to be in control and responsible for this site to ensure, among other things, no terrorists make off with radioactive material Please… Russians will just use it for their propaganda as a support to the claim that Ukraine was working on nuclear weapons.

That would be an awkward claim considering Ukraine _had_ nuclear weapons and gave them up to Russia in the 90s for guarantees about Ukraine's territorial integrity. Obviously that didn't work so well for Ukraine now

They weren't activated nukes fyi

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#657

Post by selimthegrim » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 3:59 AM UTC

ajnin wrote: post #516

toyg wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those two don't have the resources to project significantly (like superpowers), nor the pressure of border conflict (like the others I mentioned). So their nuclear capabilities are somewhat irrelevant.

Not sure why you think North Korea and Pakistan can project and not France and UK which both have nuclear attack submarines. The heart of nuclear detterrence lies in those submarines that can cause second strike MAD.

I think Pak is buying theirs from France

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#658

Post by germinalphrase » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 4:00 AM UTC

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Or - Putin is contained, grows old and dies. The Russian people may have an opportunity to dismantle his legacy and become a new country. Perhaps, he simply needs to die without escalation the circumstances to near-MAD.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#659

Post by csee » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 4:02 AM UTC

kodah wrote: post #519

trashtester wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has a bit more than a couple of nukes, as does the US. I believe I've seen the numbers indicate that the present arsenals that are currently in service are too small to erase humanity, but they are definitely big enough to cause hundreds of millions to a few billions of deaths. If we consider the situation of just 1-2 warheads are used in a conflict, I think it really hard to gauge the effect on public percept…

Personally, I think we are well past the point of nuclear armaments. I think, if there is war, it'll be a ground and air war that's like a sophisticated yet familiar chess game and a side war that is mostly anti-war propaganda, pro-Russia propaganda, misinformation, and attacks on IOT and public infrastructure that exhaust the citizenry out of watching the fighting.

Then when Putin starts losing and faces a coup from disgruntled people at home? You sure that megalomaniac won't decide to go nuclear when pushed into a corner?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#660

Post by selimthegrim » Fri, Feb 25, 2022, 4:02 AM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #502

sidewndr46 wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While way off topic, why would Saudi Arabia need nuclear weapons? My understanding is they are pretty closely allied with Pakistan, a known nuclear state.

Pakistan is 5 minutes away from a regime change, and abandoning the Western camp. Saudi has just called back a huge multi-billion dollar loan to Pakistan.

Does this explain the IK visit to Russia? I thought Saudi called it back months ago.