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Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

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651–660 of 688 posts

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#651

Everyone should take some time now to learn about Tether, the high likelihood that it is in fact a Ponzi scheme, and that it poses a big systemic risk to the crypto exchanges and therefore the markets themselves [1]. People have been sounding the alarm on Tether for a long time now, but we’re finally getting some hard evidence now to back the allegations [2]. Don’t say you weren’t warned. [1] https://mobile.twitter.c…

I haven't messed with crypto at all myself, but the IT guy at my office was telling me about the whole Tether scam four years ago. I'm amazed it's kept going for this long.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#652
post #414
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is tether even a Ponzi scheme? My understanding is that returns are 0. And it's "pegged" to dollar, so you can't even make any money by buying it... Ponzi scheme would mean that some investors were getting returns...

Its a fraud in that the money/gold/intrinsic fiat that is supposed to be backing it has not been credibly proven to exist, at least at a value matching the current amount of USDT in supply. --- Let's say I decide to make NerdBucks. I offer to sell you n NerdBucks for n dollars, 1-to-1, and tell you I will always buy those NerdBucks back at the same price. This is how NerdBucks get "pegged" to a dollar -- if someone w…

It's also pretty much what banks did before the Great Depression, isn't it? And now we have the FDIC.

It's fun watching the crypto folks re-learn 100 years of hard lessons about unregulated finance.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> USDC, DAI, USDT are all used more than ever, orders of magnitude more Even these cryptos aren't being used as currencies per se. They're popular, sure, but they're popular because A) they allow traders to move funds between crypto 'investments' without converting to fiat (i.e. without triggering cap gains), and B) They allow investors to "avoid market volatility" (but in a manner far riskier than fiat, given that e…

If the trader is being honest, converting cryptocurrencies to stablecoins is a taxable event triggering capital gains. The IRS considers any exchange of one cryptocurrency for another to be a sale of a capital asset and purchase of another.

How will the government track and get their dues?

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#654
post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This discussion has no value if you were the only one participating. Facebook has no value if there are no "friends" to interact with. My point is, the same kind of network effects that make social media valuable, are also inherent to cryptocurrencies like BTC. Metcalfe's law applies. Just like fiat currencies, actually. So yes, new entrants are obviously important to achieve an increase in value (and therefore, pric…

It's not the "same kind of network effects" though. It'd be the same kind of network effects if the only reason people had Facebook (or telecoms) accounts is because they thought someone else might buy their account off them for more money. And if a social network came along with that value proposition - "sure, it doesn't actually do anything but the fact I sold some to this other sucker at a higher price than I boug…

But it does do something and network effects have a tremendous positive impact on that utility: cryptocurrencies provide us platforms for decentralized finance. Make of that what you will; payments, providing liquidity, lending, storing value, whatever ... These trustless systems are what give cryptocurrency some intrinsic value which increases logarithmically with the number of participants in the network. I don't think this will disappear any time soon, on the contrary. Usage will increase as the technology develops and the world becomes ever more interconnected.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#655
post #653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the trader is being honest, converting cryptocurrencies to stablecoins is a taxable event triggering capital gains. The IRS considers any exchange of one cryptocurrency for another to be a sale of a capital asset and purchase of another.

How will the government track and get their dues?

Typically they use account information from the exchanges and follow that onchain

But they generally rely on individuals to report accurately. Obviously wage-earners arent used to that as their employers withhold money for taxes and report to the IRS so this crowd may find this new found freedom to be foreign and a chance to “get away with” something, but everyone else has lived in a world where they report their taxes voluntarily and accurately

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know... what I am curious, does this logic make sense? Why wouldn't a given % be allocated to lotto tickets?! Quite curious from a risk/reward portfolio formula.

The argument to not buy lottery tickets, is if you have no need of the return so it's not worth giving up the 5% of your portfolio that could be reliably generating returns for you. Software engineers for example are easily capable of reliably earning six figures in the US, outside of the Bay Area. With stock compensation their earnings potential is that much higher. It's a solid multi-millionaire track if you grind…

What I've read is that one has to distribute the portfolio across a risk spectrum. A big % to very low risk / low yield instruments (say, bonds), a medium % to blue chip stocks, a smaller % to more risky stocks, etc.

So, following that logic with cypto or lottery tickets, a very small % could be put in anything that has a high risk high reward.

When you say bother you mean effort but in theory you could outsource your potfolio so there's not more work by following one strategy or another.

Thus... are lottery tickets a good thing to have in the portfolio?

I'm quite curious if there is an answer to this from a statistics or investing point of view.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#657
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can criticize crypto currency’s for a lot but I still have never seen a good argument for it being a ponzi scheme. Can someone further this argument to one that wouldn't cover every investment asset?

Dividends and voting rights, off the top of my head. That's not universal to every stock, but fairly common.

What about art? Also no divs and voting rights and similar economics but seldom called a ponzi scheme.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#658

I used to be excited to see crypto currency related threads on HN's front page, bc I would be excited to see the technical discussion about he merits and criticisms of the technology. Nowadays, I am just disappointed when the discourse devolves into politics, cultism (on both sides), and misinformation. Where could I go to see discussions about just the technology?

This section of the forum: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=6.0

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#660
post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The advantage eventually will be easier ways to get funding for startups or businesses of all kinds. You need highly liquid markets in order to facilitate global finance at scale so that's where it's starting today. Rebuilding all of the financial primitives onchain. Why? Because composability of contracts onchain results in higher velocities of money; higher than whats possible in traditional finance. Imagine a worl…

None of this makes any sense at all. Composability of contracts leads to higher velocity of money? Where do you get this from? And why do we want higher velocity of money? The only people who care about velocity of money are macroeconomists. Velocity of money has literally zero impact on businesses and individuals.

Velocity of money follows the equation V = P*T/M Where P = price level; T = aggregate value of transactions per delta t and M = total nominal amount of currency in circulation.

With DeFi, you can increase T because the aggregate value of transaction per delta time increases thanks to composability of money. In the traditional system, locking up money means buying an asset where that value then becomes illiquid (like buying shares of a stock, or a bond). However in DeFi, that same asset can be tokenized and used as liquidity as a tokenized collateral. For example, I can tokenize a TSLA share and then use that as collateral in a contract where I can get a yield. I could also pair TSLA with a stablecoin as a liquidity position (1:1 TSLA/USD) and tokenize the liquidity position which can then be used in other contracts.

The total aggerate value per unit time increases thanks to composability of contracts. You should download Metamask and use DeFi, it'll become clear what I'm talking about.

You want higher velocities of money because then that value is being put to work. When you have low velocities of money it means you have hoarding behavior which leads to deflation and a shrinking economy. With DeFi, the same value is more efficient than the traditional system because that value can be allocated more efficiently (i.e. higher yields thanks to tokenized positions and composable contracts), thus you get more bang for your buck so-to-speak.

Also, just having something like Uniswap with pooled liquidity means assets are more liquid, which also increases velocity of money. More liquidity = higher velocities of money. This is how you bank the unbanked, by giving everyone access to financial markets as long as they have an internet connection.

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