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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#651

Post by varjag »

valuearb wrote: post #608
smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

And auto makers are estimating they won’t be able to ship 1M cars this quarter because of chip shortages, but that’s less than 4% of demand. That’s no crisis. Let’s face it, automakers not only made their own bed here, but as soon as they canceled their orders PC makers swooped in and claimed the released production because PC sales were through the roof. Next year Pc sales aren’t likely to continue at this pace. We…

Nope, 4% of global demand not met is very much a crisis.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#652

Post by gostsamo »

azeirah wrote: post #645
rhodozelia wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parts were made by humans once, they can be made by humans again. The only question is is it worth it

Not completely sure on this one, for example how the Romans had better concrete than we have now, even despite all of our scientific advancements

We know how they did it, it just does not scale, because it is not worth it causing a volcano every time we need some more ash.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#653

Post by pyb »

baybal2 wrote: post #536
exmadscientist wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

STM32 isn't the only Cortex-M microcontroller series in the world, you know. They're popular because they're pretty decent, low cost, have good dev boards and offer a wide variety of parts. However, their software sucks (okay, so do all of the other options...), their peripherals are not as good as some of the other options (in particular I'm thinking of peripheral clock trees when I say this, among other things), an…

> They're popular because they're pretty decent, low cost, have good dev boards and offer a wide variety of parts. Now find a single person who can program bare hardware on a short notice on above Arduino level. The current chip shortage has claimed 6 of our firmware devs, all hired by companies ready to spend just any money for anybody "who can replace that ____ing STM|NXP|Renesas thing" People downstream in the ind…

Where in the world is this happening ? Maybe I should get back into this game. Low-level development hadn't been a well rewarded area in recent years.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#654

Post by KirillPanov »

varjag wrote: post #647
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Re-spinning a board, LOL. Dude, there's copper substrate shortage on the market, people have delays getting their already ordered PCBs delivered.

> there's copper substrate shortage on the market, people have delays getting their already ordered PCBs delivered.

Any details on this? Media/tradejournal links?

I wouldn't have believed you six months ago, but hey, everything's changed. Still, copper-clad board shortages... I mean if that really is for real we're headed back to the stone age real quick. I hope it's just a rumor.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#655

Post by Mauricebranagh »

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Yes - it was obvious that the pandemic had a finite life and the that demand would re bound.

Sounds like accountants who know the cost and not the value of things over ruled the production engineering teams who should have accepted the one off cost to stockpile.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#656

Post by OldTimeCoffee »

dahfizz wrote: post #200
nradov wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smaller trucks are available for those who want them. Most buyers prefer larger trucks.

Can you give an example? Modern "compact" pickups like the Tacoma are significantly larger than something from 20 years ago like an S10.

A 1995 Tacoma xtracab length was ~ 200 inches. Today's Double Cab is ~ 212 inches. The Tacoma really hasn't changed in length in over 25 years. They have gotten about 10 inches wider in 2004 and a few inches taller (every model is the Off Road height now).

Side note, no one would call a Tacoma "compact". It was a small pickup in 1995 when it was introduced and now people call a 'midsize' truck.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#657

Post by OldTimeCoffee »

undeadcomment wrote: post #231
Snoozle wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim? Last I checked this (common) misconception is patently false.

Curb weight of base Tacoma has increased almost 2000 pounds (2700lb to 4400lb) from 1990 to 2021. Length increased >3ft (174" to 212"). The 1990 Tacoma was shorter and lighter than a "modern" sedan. But you really should learn how to use the internet, it's rad.

1990 wasn't a Tacoma, it was a T100/Pickup. The Tacoma was introduced in 1995. It weighed 3155 lbs for a 2WD in 1995 not 2700 lbs. You're also comparing the Regular Cab to the Access Cab for length. Regular isn't made anymore (because it didn't sell), but Regular to Regular is 174 to 190 (2004-2015).

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#658

Post by rapjr9 »

TomVDB wrote: post #281
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. This is just not true. But when it happens, there is usually an announcement well ahead of time (e.g. 1 year), as well as a last time buy option. Historically, there has never been a need to buy the chips of all the boards of a revision. If you are in the position of being able to buy all the components of all the boards you'll ever make for a cert…

Depends on the chip manufacturer. Nordic obsoletes versions of their Bluetooth chips at the drop of a hat. I worked for 2 years on a smartwatch that used the nRF51822 and they went through about 8 revisions of the chip during that time, occasionally obsoleting the software API as well. It was a nightmare to work with. We open sourced our design but it is useless to anyone now because they changed the hardware and API's yet again. Any open source hardware likely encounters the same problem eventually.

I think this churn in parts is hurting innovation since it makes things very difficult for small companies just starting out. It also wastes enormous amounts of human effort redesigning boards and rewriting software. People who could be inventing new products are tied up rehashing the existing ones. The cost to the world must be enormous. I do not understand how anyone could think this is a good thing and a reasonable way to run things. It is completely insane.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#659

Post by beowulfey »

baybal2 wrote: post #365
neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. What you are suggesting is quite impractical, unless you are a really big business with cash, which can simply direct order components. Small businesses, even in Shenzhen, a place inundated with supply chain abundance, always have to either…

Call it wailing if you want, but what you are really describing is a different philosophy in product design: stability vs. flexibility. Western brands aim for stability for customers to be able to buy the same products, with the same guarantees, for longer periods. I am not saying one philosophy is better than the other, but they are not whining out of laziness; it is a different set of design requirements and assumptions for customer products.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#660

Post by syshum »

sgtnoodle wrote: post #607
syshum wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>A Ford Mustang has the same sticker price as it did when I bought mine 10 years ago. So, if there's inflation, Mustangs have comparatively gotten cheaper. I am not sure where you are getting your prices, in 2011 Base Mustang v6 coupe sticker was $22,145. Adjusted for CPI to official 2021 dollars that would be $26,076. Base model 2021 Mustang v6 Coupe starts at 27,155, which is about 4% more than CPI indicated would…

I think you're possibly reading more into my statements than there was. No need to be so confrontational. Retail price for the V6 premium trim Mustang I bought was about $26000 retail. The modern equivalent I would say is a V4 with basic trim, because the 2021 base model comes with considerably more technology than the 2011 premium. The only practical difference is leather vs. cloth seats. The retail price for that c…

>> No need to be so confrontational.

Not about being confrontational it about dealing in actual facts

I disagree with your comparison of a v6 premium to a Base v4 and calling it "the same". Also I think it is unfair to account for technology in the way you have, if we looked at technology in that way then we would have MASSIVE deflation in the world, as a $1500 computer 10 years go would cost $35 to buy a comparable processing power. Saying that technology has gotten better there for no inflation is on of the biggest problems I have with the CPI in general

On the Peg Board, I am not sure what "locally" is but assuming you live in a large city the cost of operating a business in the city can easily increase the prices that high compared to where most lowes are located which often have less taxation, lower properly costs, and over all lower expenses. I am not surprised a local hardware store would charge a premium for a product, convenience it worth something. Clearly you thought the price was worth that vs driving out to the Lowe's to get your sheet. The excuse of "it would not fit" does not work either as Lowe's would cut it down for you to the dimensions you need for free

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