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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#651

Post by brenden2 »

vikramkr wrote: post #103
VikingCoder wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest daily point loss in the Dow is -1,190. Today we briefly hit -2030. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the Dow is -7.32%. Today we briefly hit -7.9%. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the S&P 500 is -7.18. Today we briefly hit -7.2%. If you don't classify that as a "crash," then please state your criteria for us to examine. It may not be a major crash, but it's definitely notable. https://en…

Point losses don't make sense because it's percentages that matter. The other metrics you mentioned do suggest this is of course a noteworthy market crash, but whether that becomes a recession or is anything to seriously worry about long run is a different question.

They like to cite points in the news because the numbers are bigger and it generates more clicks.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#652

Post by itsameta4 »

pjkundert wrote: post #556
akhilcacharya wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that why American society declined in the early 20th century when there were effectively open borders? Oh wait, no it didn’t.

A 3-month harrowing journey into unforeseen circumstances is an excellent filter, indeed. Please do not be flippant or purposely obtuse.

Like, for instance, thousands of miles through the desert?

Or are only sea voyages from Europe harrowing enough?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#653

Post by VikingCoder »

Youden wrote: post #604
VikingCoder wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The largest daily point loss in the Dow is -1,190. Today we briefly hit -2030. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the Dow is -7.32%. Today we briefly hit -7.9%. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the S&P 500 is -7.18. Today we briefly hit -7.2%. If you don't classify that as a "crash," then please state your criteria for us to examine. It may not be a major crash, but it's definitely notable. https://en…

The DJIA is asinine [0], please try not to perpetuate it. Look at any other index instead. [0]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010917/opini...

Like how I looked at the S&P 500 in my comment?

And it's gotten worse, here's an update from CNN:

"The S&P 500 fell by 7.7%, blowing through the first circuit-breaker level that it tripped minutes after trading opened for the day. The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst day since December 1, 2008, when stocks fell by just over 9%.

The Nasdaq was down "only" 6.7%."

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#654

Post by jacques_chester »

magicsmoke wrote: post #141
pradn wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we can use garbage-collected languages in trading systems without turning on the garbage collector - just collect it all at the end of the trading day. I'm joking but this is a real technique.

It is, there was this HFT firm I interned at once that rebooted all their servers at the end of the trading day to make sure they would start clean and fast the next day.

It also ensures you can come back up after an unexpected shutdown.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#655

Post by anm89 »

thedance wrote: post #340
zyang wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't shuffle your retirement investments based on market volatility. Best thing is just do nothing and ride it out.

This advice is both common and crazy. Each individual does not live the average life. Being able to recognize once-in-a-lifetime events, and act on them, is a rational strategy, even if it seems like it is not the optimal strategy for the perfectly spherical portfolio belonging to a person with infinite lifetime.

Well said.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#656

Post by anm89 »

allovernow wrote: post #403
twblalock wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What? That's how you minimize risk because there's a good chance the markets will continue to slide. You don't minimize risk by reacting to daily market fluctuations. You minimize risk by choosing an asset allocation that allows you to ignore those fluctuations.

The market has been dropping for a week. Indicators across the board are long term negative. We are well past the realm of daily market fluctuations.

I don't disagree with your read, but you are certainly trying to time here.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#657

Post by mcguire »

neural_thing wrote: post #339
cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

The Japanese economy and especially its financial markets were completely insane in the '80s. As in, large scale structural problems; some investors were "too important" to lose money so the brokers would reimburse them. See also the "Lost Decade(s)". (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan).) The Nikkei's decline cannot be described as a normal "downturn".

But, useful inferences for the current market are left to the reader.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#658

Post by totalZero »

caymanjim wrote: post #608
wycy wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you think about it, the whole market sort of follows these arbitrary-seeming rules. The actual prices of stocks are constantly changing 24/7/365, but the market is only open from 9:30am-4:00pm on weekdays excluding holidays.

> The actual prices of stocks are constantly changing 24/7/365 They are not. For any meaningful interpretation of "actual", the only price is the market price during trade hours. Speculative overnight agreements between private parties at agreed-upon values are contract agreements. The stock price doesn't change between market close and open.

What is the "market price"?

Is it the bid? Is it the offer? Is it the last trade? The VWAP?

The stock market only tells you where shares have traded and where the order book would trade them. There is no observable "actual price."

A useful way to think about the price is to imagine a theoretical fair value that is always changing, and a theoretical bid/offer that is always floating around the fair value.

This theoretical fair value is not posted anywhere. Some people give the name "price discovery" to the process of identifying where the theoretical fair value lies. With liquid stocks like AAPL on calm days, price discovery is a simple affair. With other assets, price discovery can be more opaque.

When the stock is trading steadily at high volume, then sure. The last trade is a great representation of the theoretical fair price. But in choppy trading, when there are dislocations between related assets and spreads are wide? The last trade is not representative of the whole picture.

Consider assets whose transactions must be reported to TRACE. If you are long, you have an incentive not to sell aggressively because a downtick will mark down the value of your position. So what's the fair price? Is it the last trade? Not necessarily, because that trade may not represent the current state of the market.

Also, there is generally some illiquid trading taking place pre-/post-market. And US futures trade overnight in other markets. And companies may be exposed to assets that trade outside of US trading hours (eg, refiners that have storage tanks full of crude, or companies that have currency exposure).

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#659

Post by empath75 »

arcticbull wrote: post #502
philwelch wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully expect South Korea to be an outlier in this respect.

The WHO is reporting 0.6% in China excluding Wuhan so probably not.

the number of cases seems to have an impact on the CFR. If the health care system is overwhelmed, it'll shoot way up. That's why shutting down travel and events is important.

It's the difference between .5% CFR and 3.5% CFR.

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