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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#651

Post by turk73 »

jermaustin1 wrote: post #12
torstenvl wrote: post #5

Time to get more conservative with your investments. Just moved my retirement accounts from 100% in a 2050 lifecycle fund to 75% in a 2030 lifecycle fund and 25% in just government bonds. Not all investment vehicles have a "lifecycle" fund but its intent is to be appropriately conservative for a target date. As the date grows closer, the fund gets more conservative in order to lessen the risk of sudden swings right b…

I'm 40% in cash, 50% in S&P and 10% in small-cap. The last few months, all of my contributions have been going into cash, so that when the fall happens, I can hopefully scoop up a deal.

If you're under age 50, don't fucking bother. Just buy S&P 500 and leave it there. Small caps are such bs as are most mutual fund and ETF offerings.

Don't take my word for it. Go over to portfolio visualizer and compare your allocation to a simple 1 fund S&P 500 at 100%, compare over 30 years and draw your own conclusions. I'm not recommending a 1 fund portfolio, btw, but that you do that as a basis for comparison.

As far as cash goes, have 3-6 months of expenses available not in a brokerage but in a bank account, checking, or actual cash.

Waiting to "scoop up a deal" is a shitty strategy.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#652

Post by dragontamer »

thwythwy wrote: post #617
dragontamer wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

The second sentence in your post is so alarmingly inappropriate that I can't focus on anything else.

The N word is simply the Latin word for black. It was probably used a lot by Latin, and maybe medieval age scholars to describe lots of things in a non-racist way. The issue is that MODERN racists have decided that the N-word is an insult to a subset of the community. As such, the N-word has become an insult.

My point is that words have meaning based on who uses the word. The N-word is used by racists and is now avoided by polite society (unless you wish to explicitly label yourself a racist)

"Deep State" is used by conspiracy theorists who wish to destroy government workers and their positions. Its a phrase that should be avoided unless you wish to paint yourself a conspiracy theorist.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#653

Post by SkyBelow »

tempguy9999 wrote: post #533
SkyBelow wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You missed the part where I was (sarcastically) demanding the proof in a specific form that I know the reader doesn't have. It is one thing to say [citation needed]. It is quite another to say [citiation needed and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements].

Here's the original question "The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything" What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth? Because that's fundamentally what's being requested. I don't think those exact documents are needed if there are good alternatives. Suggest some alternatives.

You are quoting only half of the post, particularly the half I wasn't responding to. Try quoting the other half. Also my claim is that he is rich, not some exact measure or level of wealth.

>What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth?

You really think that you need tax returns to prove he is currently wealthy? Is that a consistent standard you apply to everyone? When someone says that Bill Gates is rich, do you request the same level of documentation before you believe it? Are you doubting the relevance of other indicators of wealth such as lifestyle and property holdings?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#654

Post by tempguy9999 »

SkyBelow wrote: post #653
tempguy9999 wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the original question "The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything" What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth? Because that's fundamentally what's being requested. I don't think those exact documents are needed if there are good alternatives. Suggest some alternatives.

You are quoting only half of the post, particularly the half I wasn't responding to. Try quoting the other half. Also my claim is that he is rich, not some exact measure or level of wealth. >What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth? You really think that you need tax returns to prove he is currently wealthy? Is that a consistent standard you appl…

You're being obtuse. Original comment:

> The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth

So this is about HOW MUCH he is worth. Hence the request for docs quantifying it.

Then I say

> Suggest some alternatives

And you just snowjob with questions in return. I asked a question. Please answer it by stating what publicly available docs will show trump's wealth.

> Are you doubting the relevance of other indicators of wealth such as lifestyle and property holdings?

Irrelevant.

We want to know how much so as to judge his competency at business. Please answer, what public documents will show his wealth.

Also why are you so willing to assume he is a competent businessman without actual, audited financial evidence to back up his claims?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#655

Post by Ambele »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

Does this mean we can blame the stock market drop on the orange haired man in the office?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#656

Post by koolba »

ashelmire wrote: post #650
koolba wrote: post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternatively we should allow career professionals to act as a dampener on the will of the people when it does not align with their own views.

What exactly are you asserting? I get that you're reiterating the Trump talking point about "Deep State" nonsense, but the majority of people in this nation have voted for Democratic candidates in the last several elections, including both 2016 and 2018. If anything, the electoral college and gerrymandering are what dampen the will of the people.

The outcome of the electoral college is de facto the will of the people.

Similarly, any unelected bureaucrat working in the executive branch that pursues their personal agenda or tries to slow progress on the plans of the duly elected executive is de facto going against said will of the people.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#657

Post by cestith »

fucking_tragedy wrote: post #427
cestith wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure we can blame our fentanyl problems on China any more than our cocaine problems on Colombia or our heroin problems on Mexico. Currency control comes with being a sovereign nation. Our government and the Federal Reserve in the US issue more or less new money into the economy and raise or lower interest rates to control the strength of the US dollar all the time. I'm not sure dumping is a real problem for m…

The vast majority of fentanyl on the US black market is synthesized in 'clandestine' labs in China and shipped directly from there to dealers in the US via the post.

I'm not sure how a trade war on legal goods with one current producer of an untracked import addresses the demand for the drug or the domestic dealers. Buyers change suppliers all the time. And you're not putting a tariff on what's shipped clandestinely from clandestine labs.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#658

Post by fucking_tragedy »

cestith wrote: post #657
fucking_tragedy wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of fentanyl on the US black market is synthesized in 'clandestine' labs in China and shipped directly from there to dealers in the US via the post.

I'm not sure how a trade war on legal goods with one current producer of an untracked import addresses the demand for the drug or the domestic dealers. Buyers change suppliers all the time. And you're not putting a tariff on what's shipped clandestinely from clandestine labs.

China has been dragging its feet for years when it comes to banning fentanyl analogues when in the past they were quick to literally execute their citizens for manufacturing legal highs a decade ago.

The scale of the operations suggest that the state is involved. It used to be the case that actual clandestine labs would produce a kilogram or drum of illicit substances here and there, which is what happens in some Canadian labs. However, we're regularly intercepting unprecedented amounts of fentanyl analogues from China.

There's literally no where else in the world where both the manufacturing ability and severe lack of accountability both exist to produce novel fentanyl analogues in excess.

Also, China is selling thousands of doses of fentanyl to individual American kids online, so there's that, too.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#659

Post by cestith »

fucking_tragedy wrote: post #658
cestith wrote: post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how a trade war on legal goods with one current producer of an untracked import addresses the demand for the drug or the domestic dealers. Buyers change suppliers all the time. And you're not putting a tariff on what's shipped clandestinely from clandestine labs.

China has been dragging its feet for years when it comes to banning fentanyl analogues when in the past they were quick to literally execute their citizens for manufacturing legal highs a decade ago. The scale of the operations suggest that the state is involved. It used to be the case that actual clandestine labs would produce a kilogram or drum of illicit substances here and there, which is what happens in some Can…

Well, at that scale tariffs on other things could be used as a cudgel to encourage enforcement on the Chinese facilities by China, sure. There would still be some fentanyl available, and opioid users are fairly flexible with the specific opioids they use. Heroin, oxycontin, hydrocodone, codeine, and such tend to come from elsewhere. As one lab in China shuts down, another in China could pop up. Or in Nigeria, or in Pakistan, or in Venezuela.

I lived in Missouri before we had to sign for psuedoephedrine. Trust me when I say busting a lab here and there doesn't stop production. Reports I've read say you can invest $4,000 to easily make a kilo of fentanyl and after cutting and distribution it's worth $1,500,000 ( such as https://www.gangsterismout.com/p/fentanyl-w18.html ). Carfentanyl is supposed to be basically as easy to make and about 100x as powerful. This leads me to believe no state sponsorship is required to quickly ramp up production. If you can sell a $4k investment for over a hundred million dollars, you can ramp up quite quickly for your next several thousand kilos.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#660

Post by ethbro »

pdonis wrote: post #619
ethbro wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation is size of economy / money supply. Printing more money doesn't inexorably produce inflation, for a lot of reasons. If the money printed is used unwisely, in ways that do not grow the economy, then it certainly does.

> Inflation is size of economy / money supply. No, inflation is either an increase in the money supply (according to classical, i.e., pre-Keynesian, economics) or an increase in the average price level, often qualified to be the average price level of "wage goods" (according to Keynesian economics). The underlying argument behind "size of economy/money supply" is that if the economy is growing (more precisely, if the…

So, ignoring the digression into wealth transfer and central banking, we agree that...

> [inflation] is a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy

... is not a fully accurate statement?

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