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Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

desfontain.es

641–650 of 662 posts

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Approval Voting would be an easier pill to swallow for most americans. It’s hard to explain “yeah Trump got the most #1 votes but still lost” and easy to explain “this other candidate got the most checkmarks”. https://www.rangevoting.org/CompChart.html#votsysts

RCV completely solves the “spoiler candidate” problem, which is a huge issue limiting choice and innovation in the two-party-dominated US. Approval Voting remains susceptible to spoilers. In the US there are already people who complain that any election they lose must been “rigged”, including the current occupant of the White House. Choosing Approval Voting over RCV is not going to bring such people around; it’s rhet…

no it does not.

http://rangevoting.net/CoreSuppPocket https://wonk.blog/duopoly

approval voting actually DOES and it is better in every other way too.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#642
post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RCV completely solves the “spoiler candidate” problem, which is a huge issue limiting choice and innovation in the two-party-dominated US. Approval Voting remains susceptible to spoilers. In the US there are already people who complain that any election they lose must been “rigged”, including the current occupant of the White House. Choosing Approval Voting over RCV is not going to bring such people around; it’s rhet…

No, approval voting effectively solves spoilers. For example, the Green Party can't be a spoiler for the Democratic Party as people who like both will simply vote for both. RCV has its own novel form of spoiler: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_squeeze The 2022 Alaska special election is a great example of RCV failing where approval voting wouldn't. And FairVote had the nerve to say it showed Alaskans understood…

thanks for actually knowing what you're talking about.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We already have a system where the person with the most #1 votes can lose. A third party candidate that only got a couple states would be able to prevent a majority. And people complain about it. If you were trying to make a change from some other status quo to that, it would be a significant impediment. > Approval voting would be an improvement over the status quo but it makes it a lot harder for me to influence t…

> Approval voting is the range compressed version of score voting. I'm not thrilled with score voting to begin with, and compressing it down doesn't change much. > Use score voting and you can give your favorite candidate a different score than your second favorite without giving them the same score as your least favorite. That doesn't solve my problem. Take exactly what I said before, but replace "check" with "give…

score voting is extremely good.

https://www.rangevoting.org/BayRegsFig

compressing it to approval voting doesn't hurt very much and makes the ballot extremely simple.

> I don't see how.

i just showed you how. better average voter satisfaction, better resistance to strategy, etc.

https://www.rangevoting.org/BayRegsFig

not to mention radically simpler:

https://web.archive.org/web/20190219005733/

https://sites.google.com/a/electology.org/www/approval-votin...

IRV is a strategic mess that maintains a two party system.

wonk.blog/duopoly

https://clayshentrup.medium.com/later-no-harm-72c44e145510

https://clayshentrup.medium.com/star-voting-is-simpler-than-...

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not thrilled with score voting to begin with, and compressing it down doesn't change much. Compressing it makes it slightly worse, but some people think it makes it easier to understand. I tend to think that's silly; people can understand "score each candidate on a scale of 1 to 10" perfectly well. But approval voting would still be a significant improvement over FPTP, and even over RCV. > That doesn't solve my…

> Suppose your favorite candidate is the first choice of 20% of the population, your second favorite is 25% and the two candidates you hate are at 25% and 30% respectively. RCV makes you give your top pick to the second candidate so they can beat one of the two candidates you hate and ensure the runoff isn't between both of the candidates you hate. Let's call those candidates A B X Y. I don't see the issue. I vote my…

> I vote my actual ranking

no you don't. take a warren supporter who votes biden to stop trump. that person ranks:

biden 1st, warren 2nd, trump 3rd

they don't want warren to be a spoiler.

http://rangevoting.net/TarrIrv

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If this scenario isn't super weirdly convoluted, more of those votes shift to B than X, so X is eliminated next. It doesn't have to be that convoluted, all it takes is for the eliminated candidate to be a moderate so their votes go in two different directions. But you're right that I messed up that example; the percentages are wrong. The problem case is when your second most favored candidate would otherwise be eli…

> A B X Y It's very unlikely that the two candidates I hate are on opposite extremes and both popular. > Score voting is a Condorcet method. That gains it a point but there are much better methods. Ones where I don't feel the need to balance risk versus reward for candidates I moderately dislike. Then the guarantee of the pairwise winner coming out on top is actually using accurate information on what everyone wants.…

> That gains it a point but there are much better methods.

utterly false.

https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/vse-graph.html

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's very unlikely that the two candidates I hate are on opposite extremes and both popular. It's easy to hate the candidate on the opposite extreme from the way you lean, so all this really requires is for the extremist on your side to be a corrupt populist who gets support by telling people the lies they want to hear or is paying off the right people to get favorable media coverage or valuable endorsements. Or is…

> This is Arrow's Impossibility Theorem again. All of them do that They do not. There are voting methods where I feel they work well enough that I don't worry about strategy, and I don't worry about what threshold to use for approval, I just rank choices honestly and then I'm done. > Suppose your true ratings would be 10 for your most preferred candidate, 7 for the second best and 1 for the inhuman monster the opposi…

score voting gets better results than the alternatives with ANY AMOUNT OF STRATEGIC VOTING.

https://www.rangevoting.org/BayRegsFig

https://electionscience.org/research-hub/tactical-voting-bas...

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#647
post #603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Russia ... have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight What do you mean? In the last 25 years life expectancy in Russia has risen by almost 10 years [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locat...

Since your other comment got rightfully flagged, I'll respond to you here. The numbers from 2024 are reflective of the complete disappearance of russia from global markets. For instance, there have been no military procurement deals after 2023, only deliveries of previously ordered stuff. The poorly hidden debt crisis is within the regions paying the death and recruitment bonuses, and the military contractors forced…

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Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#648
post #603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since your other comment got rightfully flagged, I'll respond to you here. The numbers from 2024 are reflective of the complete disappearance of russia from global markets. For instance, there have been no military procurement deals after 2023, only deliveries of previously ordered stuff. The poorly hidden debt crisis is within the regions paying the death and recruitment bonuses, and the military contractors forced…

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> For example, I'd love to see the source for this one.

How do I prove the lack of something? Prove there have been any Russian military exports.

What you're missing with the polls is "if there are Western military guarantees". That is not something russia is actually proposing, or would ever agree to. So it's a moot question, because it's not reflective of reality. When you look at what russia actually proposes, the majority of Ukrainians are against that.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Approval voting is the range compressed version of score voting. I'm not thrilled with score voting to begin with, and compressing it down doesn't change much. > Use score voting and you can give your favorite candidate a different score than your second favorite without giving them the same score as your least favorite. That doesn't solve my problem. Take exactly what I said before, but replace "check" with "give…

score voting is extremely good. https://www.rangevoting.org/BayRegsFig compressing it to approval voting doesn't hurt very much and makes the ballot extremely simple. > I don't see how. i just showed you how. better average voter satisfaction, better resistance to strategy, etc. https://www.rangevoting.org/BayRegsFig not to mention radically simpler: https://web.archive.org/web/20190219005733/ https://sites.google.co…

> i just showed you how.

That comes across as weirdly aggressive when you're referring to earlier in the same post. Like I'm dumb for not somehow seeing that before I finished my own post.

Also what's the definition of honesty for approval voting? Where am I supposed to draw the line?

The chart is pretty but I'm not trusting that chart without a lot more info.

> IRV is a strategic mess

I didn't say I want instant runoff in particular.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#650
post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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> For example, I'd love to see the source for this one. How do I prove the lack of something? Prove there have been any Russian military exports. What you're missing with the polls is "if there are Western military guarantees". That is not something russia is actually proposing, or would ever agree to. So it's a moot question, because it's not reflective of reality. When you look at what russia actually proposes, the…

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