Starship V3

But I'd once again push back against the idea that GPS wasn't "Earth-bound spending". Its entirely an Earth-bound thing. GPS is useless on the moon, its useless on Mars. It doesn't help space probes go to other plants. It doesn't help our space telescopes. We didn't really learn new things about going to space by building our GNSS (although IIRC we did confirm some concepts related to time dilation). We didn't build new rocket designs to put them in orbit. They weren't the first things we put in space (although they were some of the earliest things). They were not space science systems. GNSS are inherently Earth-focused spending (global being a key word there).

We didn't build Transit or GPS or GLONASS or Galileo to explore space, we did it to measure things on the Earth. GNSS are very much Earth-bound spending, and would have happened regardless of us putting a man on the moon or sending probes to Mars or beyond.

We didn't even originally build the rockets launching a lot of this for science reasons or for looking towards exploring space, we originally built them to blow up people far away from us. The Atlas LV-3B for Mercury was a modified ICBM. The Gemini Launch Vehicle was essentially a modified Titan II, a nuke-capable ICBM. These rockets were being built and launching payloads regardless of if we put people on them and did science with them. IMO its a good thing we also did science with them, but its not like they were originally built for public science like NASA programs.

Launches need permission too.

> And you're using words like "should" - should has no place in this discussion. It's an "is-ought" thing. You're saying "they should behave this way" and I'm saying, "they're going to behave this other way."

My "should" is a summary of the incentives if they acted reasonably. Without a crystal ball, don't be so confident they'll do something different.

And here's a version with no is or ought: Anyone whose goal is avoiding datacenter downsides, that could say "we forbid polluting and power grid draining datacenters here" but chooses to say "we forbid any datacenters here, go to space", is a moron. And anyone that doesn't have the power to say either is irrelevant.

> You haven't reasoned through any of this, you're saying that they "should" do something because it will be cheaper/better/whatever. And that's not how it works - it was never how it worked, but it was less obvious in prior times.

Companies almost always do what's cheaper. Your logic is incomprehensible here.

> There aren't really any better options. Your bottlenecks are power, land costs, technical stuff, and bureaucracy. In space you basically shortcut all of those problems except the technical ones

If the satellites self-powering counts as not buying electricity, then so does self-powering on land. Land in the middle of nowhere is very cheap, and so is the bureaucracy per acre when you're buying large chunks. It's less bureaucracy than rocket launches. And the technical stuff is a lot simpler on land than in space; suggesting you avoid technical stuff by using rockets is crazy.

> Sure you "could" build data centers in Arizona or whatever, but they're not going to because they'd have to ask permission, it'd be a permitting nightmare, etc.

A baseless claim.

When you're happy with the middle of nowhere, building on land only requires a handful of approved sites on the entire planet. That's very achievable, and achievable faster than it takes to set up the production lines.

Do you think the US government that's fawning over StarShield and the Golden dome is going to prohibit it? Of course not. And the permissions required for a launch or series of launches are VASTLY different than the permissions required to get something built. I spent my old life dealing with the FAA a lot. It's painful, but it's not terrible. You basically do their job for them by following their evaluation rules as you write your proposed operations up (they publish those in something that used to be called the 8900.1), then you wait and they stamp it or it goes through a series of revisions, but the time it takes is not immeasurably bad. Other departments and divisions of the government are not like that.

>And here's a version with no is or ought: Anyone whose goal is avoiding datacenter downsides, that could say "we forbid polluting and power grid draining datacenters here" but chooses to say "we forbid any datacenters here, go to space", is a moron. And anyone that doesn't have the power to say either is irrelevant.

I guess time will tell who is right. Still, the permitting costs and the time it takes will be the deciding factor in the long run. We're (that is the collective we as a people) are going to do this. We will have compute in space. Mark my words.

And "is a moron" is a bit of an overstep, unless you want to call the vast majority of people morons, which may be fair, but they're datacenters are the current zeitgeist's nuclear power plants in my experience.

> Companies almost always do what's cheaper. Your logic is incomprehensible here.

Opportunity cost is a big thing, and again, how many companies have you worked for? How many companies have you run? Just a window into my world. I just spent like 3 hours on the phone with the IRS today. It was cheaper for me to do that than to pay someone to do that, so I did. But I'll tell you, if I have to do this again I'm going to have my CPA do it. Time has a value too - it's almost more valuable than money. If you have to wait for the permitting process or just start launching datacenters ASAP, what's the "smart" choice? Well... I'd rather pay more now, and have that big compute without the headache than wait. I reckon it's not all or nothing either, we'll have space based datacenters and orbital datacenters and probably remote / rural datacenters too? But I bet we'll have them all.

We will see who is right here.

> A baseless claim.

Try to go get something big built somewhere, I dare ya. Shit, I live in Alaska which is notoriously permissive when it comes to development, I saw people TODAY on reddit squawking about a plan for a datacenter in the high arctic. I think the high arctic is a stupid place for a datacenter for a lot of reasons (basically most reasons other than cooling and cheap dirty power) and I don't think one would be built there for just logistics reasons alone, but people who will never go to those places (by the way, I've spent much of my adult life working in rural Alaska) will scream bloddy murder and fight tooth and nail to stop that project. I guarantee it.

How what kind of bandwidth are you saying a hypothetical West Texas datacenter would be able to get? How many batteries and how much solar? If you're going to take water from an already parched area, who has the water rights? You ever tried to get something built in the desert? These are all permitting hurdles that have to be stepped through point by point and approved by team after team of bureaucrats.

If the prize is "AGI++" or whatever we're calling super-intelligence in a few years, then the delay is more costly. But again, I just think, and no offense here, but you don't understand the logistical and permitting burden of building in the middle of nowhere. If you already own a rocket company, and you're launching something close to an orbital datacenter node already (starlink), then dealing with the permitting and stress from building outside Tempe, or the uncertainty of Tunisia or whatever is a nightmare. You're just going to go "up." And like I said, you can disbelieve me all you want, but I bet this is how things go. In fact I'm planning on it.

I bought land in the "middle of nowhere" last year to build our cabin on. I bought someplace with literally no-zoning/restrictions on purpose, but even on the land I bought I couldn't just pop up a multi-thousand square foot datacenter without a lengthy permitting process. Hell, even here in Alaska the permitting process for a running water is (rightfully) no joke.

I'm not trying to be an ass, but as someone who owns an (admittedly extremely small) business the opportunity cost of wading through the morass of paperwork and approval is just not worth it if I were trying to do something big. If I already had a space company, orbital datacenters would be the natural choice if I wanted more compute.

But again, we'll see who's right here.

I think you’re also exaggerating those issues considerably.