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The American Healthcare Conundrum

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641–650 of 690 posts

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can pay cash without insurance, then you don't need the insurance. Insurance is (should be) addressing the risk of unexpected expenses that you cannot afford. Not predictable, small expenses that everyone has.

This ignores catastrophic scenarios.

???

This explicitly addresses catastrophic scenarios.

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last year this podcast said that nobody wants to solve this because solving it is going to eliminate (IIRC) hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which is a point to consider. Why not simply hire them to do something that isn't pointless - like dig ditches or clean garbage

You could say the same to tech workers after AI.

Do you expect US government to create a huge regulated industry similar to health insurance to keep tech workers employed?

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#643

Healthcare administrative overhead in the US is pretty huge and has been for a long time. Back in the early 90s I worked on claim processing software and I recall it being discussed as being around a third of healthcare costs. Last year this podcast said that nobody wants to solve this because solving it is going to eliminate (IIRC) hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which is a point to consider. In 2021, the U.S. spent…

>Last year this podcast said that nobody wants to solve this because solving it is going to eliminate (IIRC) hundreds of thousands of jobs. That's the reason why a lot of inefficiencies are kept in countries around the world: it keeps people employed and moves money through the economy. If broken things were suddenly to be made efficient overnight, the government wouldn't be able deal with masses of angry people/vote…

I would assume reducing healthcare costs would make absolute majority of voters happy.

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Middle men in processes add overhead, but on various analyses I've seen.. zeroing all middleman (insurance, PBM, etc) out still leaves us as far more expensive than the rest of the rich world. One thing which is not terribly popular to point out is that at least on procedure pricing - wages are way way higher here. Some of that is that education is far more expensive so then we need to pay very well to pay that down.…

Malpractice insurance is a big part of the higher salaries.

Care to provide reference for your claim? AFAIK malpractice insurance for nurses is quite cheap.

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#645
post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure there is a lot of nuance but long term healthcare outcomes are generally lower in the US compared to other countries. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/quality...

I think this difference mostly disappears if you group Americans by wealth. So wealthy Americans have similar life expectancies to those in other countries. It's really the poor that are most affected by our dystopian healthcare system, which is probably a big part of why it never gets fixed.

The obesity adjustment is worth quantifying. US adult obesity: 42% (CDC). UK: 28%, Australia: 31%, Germany: 22%. Those gaps are real, but they don't explain a 2.5x per-capita spending differential. The Commonwealth Fund's 2021 analysis controlled for age, income, and chronic condition burden; the US still spent roughly $5,000 more per capita than the next-highest spender (Switzerland).

Obesity also matters less than assumed in hospital pricing: a hip replacement costs $29,000 commercially in the US regardless of patient BMI, vs. $15,000 in Germany and $9,000 in Spain (iFHP 2024). The cost structure is in the pricing system. Johns Hopkins researchers estimated eliminating US obesity would reduce healthcare spending by about 12%, real but not 2.5x. Repo with methodology: https://github.com/rexrodeo/american-healthcare-conundrum

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does "not for profit" actually solve anything? Aren't most private universities also not-for-profit, while also being major real estate owners, developers, managing massive investment portfolios, etc?

It doesn't. The Netherlands has a system with both not-for-profit and for-profit insurers, that works reasonably well. - Transparent, identical rules for minimum coverage and strict rules on minimum and maximum deductible for all insurers and insurees. - Mandatory coverage for everyone (just like liability insurance is mandatory for cars in the US) - Insurers do not have the right to refuse any applicants based on pr…

The Dutch model is a useful counterexample to the argument that you need a single-payer structure to contain costs. Netherlands uses regulated private insurers with community rating and risk equalization, yet achieves per-capita spending well below the US (roughly $7,200 vs. $14,570 in 2023 OECD data). The direct insurer-hospital negotiation you describe is also how Germany's sickness funds operate.

The US equivalent would be all-payer rate setting. Maryland has run a statewide all-payer hospital rate system since 1977 with documented cost containment. Issue #3 of this series focuses on a lighter-weight near-term version: capping commercial hospital payments at 200% of Medicare (already used by Montana Medicaid and thousands of self-insured employers). The Dutch model shows a stronger structural fix is feasible. The question is political path, not technical feasibility.

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are extremely close to arriving at the solution, which is medicare for all. Cover everyone, then almost noone uses the insurance except when they need it, which is when they get old. If the US had the equivalence of Canadian health insurance, the spending reduction would be so big, that as a working person, your health insurance bill would go to zero, out of pocket costs to zero, and everyone would have health in…

Medicare's admin cost is around 5%, private insurance is around 33% of claim dollars. There are around 27-28% uninsured. The money is already there who pays needs to be moved to the Billionaire and Multimillionaire class to reduce the annual costs for those who work for a living.

Those figures are in the right range, and the full picture is larger. The CMS NHE 2023 data puts total US healthcare administration at roughly $1.1-1.7T annually (depending on methodology), building on Woolhandler and Himmelstein's 2020 Annals paper ($812B in 2017 dollars). The per-capita comparison against 10 OECD peers: US $4,983 vs. a peer average of $884. That 5.6x gap is the number Issue #5 of this series will examine in detail, covering three separate computation methodologies and why the estimates range so widely. All source code will be in the repo: https://github.com/rexrodeo/american-healthcare-conundrum

The policy lever that addresses this is billing standardization, not just insurer reform. Countries like Germany and Switzerland run much lower admin under private insurance through standardized claims formats and all-payer rate setting.

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#648
post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They still do, because that's a minimum . If they have to spend 80% of premiums on medical care, then they make a lot more profit by spending just that mandated 80%, as opposed to 85% or 90%. Which they can achieve by denying claims. That's the direct financial incentive.

You seem to be confused about basic arithmetic. First of all, the minimum MLR for most health plans is actually 85% (and most come in significantly above that for competitive reasons). And due to the MLR, health plans actually have a perverse incentive to approve more claims because 15% of a large number is more than 15% of a small number. This is one of the many reasons why total healthcare costs have continued to g…

Or perhaps you're the one who is confused.

First of all, I used 80% as an example, and it is the number for individual and small-group plans which are very common. On the other hand, 85% is the number for large-group plans. However, many plans don't have to follow the MLR at all when they're self-insured employer plans, which are also very common.

Second, your claim about the "perverse inventive" is simply incorrect. The denominator here of the 80 or 85% is premiums, not expenses. There is never any incentive like that to approve more claims above the minimum. Your arithmetic is simply backwards here. This is not a reason for rising healthcare costs.

Third, even if health plans do come in over the legally mandated minimum --let's say it's 85% for one plan, and they come in at 88%, that's often because they're creating a buffer since it's impossible to know perfectly in advance where it will hit by the end of the year. Premiums are known and constant, expenses are unknown and variable.

The basic relationship holds true: the more medical expenses they approve (beyond the MLR when it exists), the smaller their profit margin is.

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What an amazing system! Poof! just like magic you can pretend that sophisticated medicines, that are years in development, should cost nothing just because! And then you can act all smug about it!

Not at all. The majority of the cost is subsidised by the Government who acts as a central purchaser to minimise profiteering and keep prices down. Everyone pays a little bit towards it all via general taxation but if you prefer a system where individuals have to front the vast majority of their own costs, much of which is just being extracted as profit, then you are welcome to that. I prefer the option that leans a…

Ok, but that wasn’t part of the discussion was it? Just “lol drugs only cost a nickel here, silly USA” seems disingenuous

Re: The American Healthcare Conundrum

#650
post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What an amazing system! Poof! just like magic you can pretend that sophisticated medicines, that are years in development, should cost nothing just because! And then you can act all smug about it!

Cost nothing to the user , yes. You can then have the state, a sophisticated purchaser, decide what it's willing to pay.

Sure, sure, “sophisticated”
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