Live data from Hacker News

AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

fortune.com

641–650 of 783 posts

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I see people thinking modern AI models can’t generate working code. Really? Can you show any examples of someone claiming AI models cannot generate working code? I haven't seen anyone make that claim in years, even from the most skeptical critics.

Scroll up a few comments where someone said Claude is generating errors over and over again and that Claude cant work according to code guidelines etc :-))

That not the same.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've created a tautology: Socialism is bad because bad models are socialism and better models are not-socialism. > You cannot point at it and say "hey, successful socialism" Yes I can because ideological purity doesn't exist in the real world. All of our countries are a mix of capitalist and socialist ideas yet we call them "capitalist" because that's the current predominant organization. > Tito was a mortal enemy…

" no socialist or communist nation has been allowed to exist without interference from the US through oppressive economic sanctions that would cripple and destroy any economy regardless of its economic system" That is what COMECON was supposed to solve, but if you aggregate a heap of losers, you won't create a winning team. "Socialism is not synonymous with Marxist-Leninist doctrine. It's a fairly simple core idea th…

> That is what COMECON was supposed to solve, but if you aggregate a heap of losers, you won't create a winning team.

What kind of disingenuous argument is that? Existence of COMECON doesn't neutralize the enormous disadvantage and economic pressure of having sanctioned imposed on you.

> Of that infinite number

I'm glad we agree that Soviet communism is not synonymous with "socialism".

> Aside from that one, worker cooperatives of more than 1000 people are rare birds.

You're applying pointless capitalist metrics to non-capitalist organizations and moralizing about how they don't live up to them.

> No one in the former socialist bloc will experiment with that quagmire again.

You're experimenting with socialist policies and values right now, you just don't want to call it by that name because of your weird fixation. Do public healthcare, transport, education, social security benefits ring any bells?

If you talked to people from ex-Yugoslavia, you'd know that many would be happy to return to that time.

> We should stop trying to ride dead horses.

We should stop declaring horses extinct when it's just your own horse that has died.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The implication is that companies in a private market can't possibly be hugely inefficient for irrational reasons that can ultimately be self-harming. An interesting take.

I used the term "private market" when I actually meant the private sector. I just mean all labor that isn't government owned - public companies, private companies etc. So yes - in a reasonably functioning capitalist market (which the U.S still is in my eyes) I expect gross inefficiencies to not be prevalent.

> So yes - in a reasonably functioning capitalist market (which the U.S still is in my eyes) I expect gross inefficiencies to not be prevalent.

I am not sure that is true, though. Assume for a moment that Google would waste 50% of their profits. Truly, a huge inefficiency. However, would that make it likely some other corp could take their search/ad market share from them? I doubt it, given the abyss of a moat.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now if only companies knew how to correctly assess actual impact and not perceived impact.

Acquisition rate, retention rate, revenue, profit margin?

By those metrics, Microsoft lost 20% of it's value due to hopping on the AI coding assistance train.

I'm not saying it is the case, just making it apparent how unreliable it is to measure productivity by comparing what's happening at the lowest level in a company to its financials.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#645
post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would like to see the day when the context size is in gigabytes or tens of billions of tokens, not RAG or whatever, actual context.

Context size helps some things but generally speaking, it just slows everything down. Instead of huge contexts, what we need is actual reasoning . I predict that in the next two to five years we're going to see a breakthrough in AI that doesn't involve LLMs but makes them 10x more effective at reasoning and completely eliminates the hallucination problem. We currently have "high thinking" models that double and tripl…

Wasn’t this idea the basic premise of coq? Why didn’t it work?

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parts that are only done to maintain status quo with a competitor aren’t productive, and that’s quite a bit of it. Two (or more) sides spend money, nothing changes. No good is produced. The whole exercise is basically an accident. Like when a competing country builds their tenth battleship, so you commission another one to match them. The world would have been better if neither had been build. Money changed hands…

You’re describing redundant effort from competition as waste. Is it a waste of effort when both people try to get the same job and only one succeeds? Is it a waste of effort when two companies try to make the best electric car? If it is wasteful what does aw orld look like where nobody ever spends resources on a goal which overlaps with someone else?

I think you’ve misunderstood what I’ve written here. Graeber’s book might make it clearer for you, he probably did a better job of explaining it than I do. It’s about spendy Red Queen’s races, not just trying to make something better or trying to compete in general. The application of the idea to military spending is pretty much standard and uncontroversial stuff (hell, it was 100-plus years ago) while his observation of a similar effect in some notable component of ad spending is novel (at least, I’d not seen that connection made before).

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#647
post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ... and yet project velocity does not go much faster 1) The models like us have finite context windows and intelligence, even with good engineering practices system complexity will eventually slow them down. 2) At the moment at least, the code still needs to be reviewed and signed off by us and reading someone else's code is usually harder than writing it.

Are people still reading PRs in detail manually? I am after the automated PR agents have all passed a PR I tend to let Claude Code and Codex give me a summary, with an MCP skill to read the requirement story. I trust their ability to catch edge cases and typos more than me. I just check the general structure of the PR

Anthropic, OpenAI, Google et. al. have EULAs and the best lawyers money can buy ready to argue that any damage done by publicly releasing bad or malicious code produced or reviewed with their systems is the developers responsibility for not checking properly.

> I trust their ability to catch edge cases and typos more than me.

Given the vendors EULAs etc, if poop really hits the fan with released code, then how is that likely to sound if the lawyers get involved?

> Are people still reading PRs in detail manually?

Ultimately it all depends on circumstance and appetite for risk, but yes many/most places still manually checking releases.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#648
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if LLMs are optimizing the average office worker's productivity but the work itself simply has no discernable economic value? This is argued at length in Grebber's Bullshit Jobs essay and book.

The thesis of Bullshit Jobs is almost universally rejected by economists, FYI. There’s not much of value to obtain from the book.

… what’s the thesis?

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used the term "private market" when I actually meant the private sector. I just mean all labor that isn't government owned - public companies, private companies etc. So yes - in a reasonably functioning capitalist market (which the U.S still is in my eyes) I expect gross inefficiencies to not be prevalent.

> So yes - in a reasonably functioning capitalist market (which the U.S still is in my eyes) I expect gross inefficiencies to not be prevalent. I am not sure that is true, though. Assume for a moment that Google would waste 50% of their profits. Truly, a huge inefficiency. However, would that make it likely some other corp could take their search/ad market share from them? I doubt it, given the abyss of a moat.

True. Therefore, what?

One could say: True, therefore search is not a reasonably functioning capitalist market.

Yeah, I know, this can turn into "no true capitalist market". Still, it seems reasonable to say that many markets work in a certain kind of way (with lots of competition), and search is not one of those markets.

Re: AI adoption and Solow's productivity paradox

#650
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And really the problem isn’t that it can’t make working code, the problem is that it’ll never get the kind of context that is in your brain. I started working today on a project I hadn’t touched in a while but I now needed to as it was involved in an incident where I needed to address some shortcomings. I knew the fix I needed to do but I went about my usual AI assisted workflow because of course I’m lazy the last th…

>>The AI doesn’t know anything about the full scope of all the things in my head about my company’s environment and the information I need to convey to it. This is your problem: How should it know if you do not provide it? Use Claude - in the pro version you can submit files for each project which are setting the context: This can be files, source code, SQL scripts, screenshots whatever - then the output will be base…

And your problem is that you didnt understood the point of their post. The full context was so complex and would be so time consuming to relay that they might as well code themselves.
Post reply on HN