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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

641–650 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#644

Interesting the wikipedia article of the Mar-a-Lago Accord has been deleted https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago_Accord Last archival I've found https://web.archive.org/web/20251110042359/https://en.wikipe...

> This appears to be an AI-generated draft with severe hallucination problems bordering on WP:HOAX. For one, it calls it the "Margo Largo Accord" -- a name that is not and never was real. The draft also claims the accord was already introduced, and goes into detail about its supposed contents, effects, and reactions to it; the problem is, no actual accord was introduced at the time (or now), so pretty much all of that is made up. The sourcing gives an impression of WP:SIGCOV [significant coverage] but almost all of it appears to be background information about various topics that aren't the accord.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletio..., the discussion that concluded with the article's deletion

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#645

Contrary to what everyone thinks - Dollar losing its reserve currency _canbe_ a good thing. https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

I can't figure out what in that article is supposed to be a good thing, and the article doesn't seem to hold an opinion of that sort. My first question is: good for whom? Second question is: how? It's definitely good for holders of whatever replaces the dollar, but it's disastrous for everybody in the US, as far as I can tell.

> As applied to the United States, the current account version of Triffin runs as follows. The global accumulation of dollar reserves requires the United States to run a current account deficit. Since desired reserves rise with world nominal GDP, which is growing faster than US nominal GDP, the growth of dollar reserves will raise US external indebtedness unsustainably. Either the United States will not run the current account deficits, leading to an insufficiency of global reserves. Or US indebtedness will rise without limit, undermining the value of the dollar and the reserves denominated in it.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians are lining up to go to war under the promise of money, around 30k a month last time I checked. Americans not so much, in particular not against Europeans. It's different in my view.

As an American, a sizable number of Americans are lining up to join ICE under the promise of money. And also, our whole military recruitment strategy here outside of drafts has been "the GI bill" – paid tuition in exchange for lining up to go to war. I don't know that the gap in morals is as wide as you think.

But is it 30k people a month, for years on end (or rather 75k considering US population is around 2.5x the size of russias population)?

Russians are much, much worse than Americans in terms of their eagerness to kill others, in my opinion. I wish it were not so.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#647
post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more of a payment processor issue than a device issue. If you are in a country or area with a large Chinese population, you can usually pay easily in RMB with Alipay. If you use Visa and Mastercard, you are subject to US regulations, sanctions, and embargoes. Many alternative payment processor exist, PIX in Brazil, UPI in India, etc. There are several systems in the EU: Wero, Bizum, BLIK It is urgent that Europe…

An integrated European payments system should be very high up on the priorities list of the European Commision. I believe every EU country already has its own version of a QR code payment, I don't know why can't they connect "easily" connect them.

It's complicated, there are two types of applications and networks.

1) Direct payment systems via mobile phone, generally designed initially for payments between friends and family. They have been set up in several countries by neobanks, generally based on the Mastercard network (very common among neobanks). A Latvian neobank may expand into the Baltic countries, but is unlikely to succeed in Portugal. These systems are not interoperable with each other.

2) Systems promoted by banking networks, such as Bizum in Spain, which has expanded to the Iberian Peninsula, and Wero, which is supported by BNP Paribas (France, Belgium, Germany). These networks are independent of Mastercard, Visa, etc., but they seek to favor their members and do not seek to become widespread.

Discussions have been ongoing for years to achieve interoperability. The idea for the moment was to let the market structure itself naturally without too much intervention, other than to say “we must move towards interoperability at the European level.” This approach has worked very well for bank transfers, which have become simple, fast, and relatively secure, but it has taken a long time (Europe, consensus, etc.).

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#648

I'm hopeful that any loss in dominance translates directly to economic pain for all Americans. Nothing will rose those sleepwalking through the rise of fascism faster than not being able to make ends meet.

I'm not sure that is true at all. I think the sleepwalkers are just as likely to blame immigrants, foreigners, and continue to hand the current regime more power.

Yeah, on second evaluation I think you're right. People are less likely to be motivated to act, and more likely to be more easily manipulated.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#649

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…

What were the political commitments of the writers of the pre-WWI history you read? Could they have an incentive to characterize things this way?

Margaret MacMillan is a modern historian with a liberal world view and no ideological incentive to defend Bismarck, and in her phenomenal work The War that Ended Peace (2013) she largely supports this view.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't figure out what in that article is supposed to be a good thing, and the article doesn't seem to hold an opinion of that sort. My first question is: good for whom? Second question is: how? It's definitely good for holders of whatever replaces the dollar, but it's disastrous for everybody in the US, as far as I can tell.

> As applied to the United States, the current account version of Triffin runs as follows. The global accumulation of dollar reserves requires the United States to run a current account deficit. Since desired reserves rise with world nominal GDP, which is growing faster than US nominal GDP, the growth of dollar reserves will raise US external indebtedness unsustainably. Either the United States will not run the curre…

Can you be a bit more explicit about what the benefit is, and who benefits? It's not clear what your thinking is.
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