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2025: The Year in LLMs

simonwillison.net

641–643 of 643 posts

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#641
post #582
post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes although even those people paying are likely still being subsidized and not currently paying the full cost. Interesting thought about current SOTA models running on my mobile device. I've given it some thought and I don't think it would change my life in any way. Can you suggest some way that it would change yours?

It will open access of llms to developers in the same way smart phones opened access to mobile general computing. I really think most everyone misses the actual potential of llms. They aren't an app but an interface. They are the new UI everyone has known they wanted going back as long as we've had computers. People wanted to talk to the computer and get results. Think of the people already using them instead of sear…

I think that's a nice reply and these products becoming the future of user computer interface is possible.

I can imagine them generating digital reality on the fly for users - no more dedicated applications, just pure creation on demand ('direct me via turn by turn 3d navigation to x then y and z', 'replay that goal that just was scored and overlay the 3 most recent similar goals scored like that in the bottom right corner of the screen', 'generate me a 3D adventure game to play in the style of zelda, but make it about gnomes').

I suspect the only limitation for a product like this is energy and compute.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#642
while most of the discourse is around text and (multimodal) LLMs, the past year has been quite interesting in other media as well. i suppose the "slop" section did hint on it briefly.

while LLM-generated text was already a thing of the past couple years, this year images and videos had the "AI or not" moment. it appears to have a bigger impact than our myopic world of software. another trend towards the end of the year was around "vibe training" of new (albeit much smaller) AI models.

personally, getting up and running with a project has been easier than ever, but unlike OP, i don't share the same excitement to make anymore. perhaps vibe coding with a phone will get more streamlined with a killer app in 2026.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#643
post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We probably work at the same company, given you used MAANG instead of FAANG. As one of the WAU (really DAU) you’re talking about, I want to call out a couple things: 1) the LOC metrics are flawed, and anyone using the agents knows this - eg, ask CC to rewrite the 1 commit you wrote into 5 different commits, now you have 5 100% AI-written commits; 2) total speed up across the entire dev lifecycle is far below 10x, mos…

Oh yes all of this I agree with. I had tried to clarify this above but your examples are clearer: my point is: all measures and studies I have personally seen of AI impact on productivity have been deeply flawed for one reason or another. Total speed up is WAY less than 10x by any measure. 2x seems too high too. By data alone it’s a bit unclear of impact I agree. But I will say there seems to be a clear picture that…

Great response, we’re like 98% aligned at a high-level. :) These next few years will be interesting.
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