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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#641

Post by UltraSane »

scotty79 wrote: post #633
FabHK wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or even good old centralised distributed systems that do it another 4 to 6 orders of magnitude more efficiently than PoS.

It sounds terrible when you approach it from the point of money. Of course you can do money more efficiently. But if you approach this form the side of energy it's a way to organically tie a value to any energy produced. Even the energy produced at times when production vastly exceeds the demand. And that's going to be most of the energy produced since we need to develop renewables capacity and can't really wait for…

Using crypto to consume stranded wind and solar is an elegant idea.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#643

Post by balamatom »

lukan wrote: post #386
balamatom wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>robocops will still be limited in numbers The population of developed countries is already at least 75% robocops

Erm, what qualifies as a robocop to you?

Being robotic and policing.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#644

Post by dandellion »

mirekrusin wrote: post #584
someuser54541 wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My team is doing the same, and yet all of us still aren't sure that we're actually more productive overall. If anything it seems to me like we've just swapped coding with what is effectively a lot more code review (of whatever the LLM spits out), at the cost of also losing that long term understanding of a block of code that actually comes from writing it yourself (let's not pretend that a reviewer has the same depth…

If you work in a team then you are likely already not writing most of the code yourself. There will be point where ai will consistently write better prs - you can already start to see it here and there - finding and fixing bugs in existing code, refactoring, writing tests, writing and updating documentation and prototyping are some examples of areas where it often surpasses human contribution.

All the comments of AI writing code and making PRs remind me a lot of all the promises about self driving cars. That was more than 10 years ago and today I still don't know anybody that has a car that drives itself. Will AI write useful PRs one day? Probably. Will it do that before I retire or die of old age? Considering I have been using agents for about a year or so, and seen little to no improvement in that time, I'm afraid the current version of AI probably has already peaked and we'll only see marginal improvement due to diminishing returns.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#645

Post by pmarreck »

thrance wrote: post #364
pmarreck wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this argument. Speaking as a kid who grew up middle-class as an 80's teen obsessed with (the then still new) computers, a non-rich person has access to more salient power today than ever in history, and largely for no or low cost. There are free AI's available that can diagnose illnesses for people in remote areas, non-Western nations, etc. and which can translate (and/or summarize) anything to any…

You have an incorrect reading of history and economy. Basically none of the wealth and comfort we (regular people) enjoy were "gifted" or "left over" willingly by the owner class. Everything had to be fought for: minimum wage, reasonable weekly hours, safe workplaces, child labor, retirement, healthcare... Now, ask yourself, what happens when workers lose the only leverage they have against the owner class: their lab…

> Everything had to be fought for: minimum wage, reasonable weekly hours, safe workplaces, child labor, retirement, healthcare...

Fair enough. True.

> Once AI is able to replace a significant part of workers

But it won't do that. It's going to shift people around a lot, like literally every other technological development in the history of mankind, sure. But there's literally no evidence that it's going to do what you're claiming, which means you're arguing against a spooky strawman. It's not like people are going to just sit around doing nothing and going homeless, dude. Ideas (and activity that ends up being economically-tangible) will fill the vacuum.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#646

Post by pmarreck »

amrocha wrote: post #245
pmarreck wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this argument. Speaking as a kid who grew up middle-class as an 80's teen obsessed with (the then still new) computers, a non-rich person has access to more salient power today than ever in history, and largely for no or low cost. There are free AI's available that can diagnose illnesses for people in remote areas, non-Western nations, etc. and which can translate (and/or summarize) anything to any…

This is a simplistic, individualistic view of the impact of AI. You’re imagining the world we have today, but with AI. In reality it’ll be a world that’s completely different, and most likely in a worse way, and AI is the tool used to make it worse.

> it’ll be a world that’s completely different

And this is all wild negative speculation by you. And if you deny that, you're lying. It may be different, but not unmanageably different.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#647

Post by pmarreck »

tbossanova wrote: post #213
pmarreck wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this argument. Speaking as a kid who grew up middle-class as an 80's teen obsessed with (the then still new) computers, a non-rich person has access to more salient power today than ever in history, and largely for no or low cost. There are free AI's available that can diagnose illnesses for people in remote areas, non-Western nations, etc. and which can translate (and/or summarize) anything to any…

The problem is if the system leads to demotivating people more than motivating them on average, which risks a negative feedback loop where people demotivate each other further and so on

What is demotivating people is negativist-framing-obsessed doomer assholes like you dooming and glooming all the possible negatives and absolutely none of the positives. There's no actual unmanageable bad things occurring, and a ton of upside occurring.

People are literally quitting CS majors because of this BS. Hopefully only the people who aren't meant to do it in the first place, but anyway.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#648

Post by pmarreck »

mlrtime wrote: post #438
tbossanova wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is if the system leads to demotivating people more than motivating them on average, which risks a negative feedback loop where people demotivate each other further and so on

Yes, just read reddit or this thread. I'd love to see the people's lives saying how bad it is now. My guess is they have every luxury afforded to them. There is strong negativity bias.

Yes. This, 100%.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#649

Post by pmarreck »

zekrioca wrote: post #326
pmarreck wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this argument. Speaking as a kid who grew up middle-class as an 80's teen obsessed with (the then still new) computers, a non-rich person has access to more salient power today than ever in history, and largely for no or low cost. There are free AI's available that can diagnose illnesses for people in remote areas, non-Western nations, etc. and which can translate (and/or summarize) anything to any…

“Free ai” lol

I bought a Mac IIci computer in 1990 from my savings working throughout high school, for my freshman year of college. It cost over $8k, which in today's dollars is over $20k.

So imagine my lack of sympathy when people complain about things being literally free (as long as you don't mind signing away your social media profile data)

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#650

Post by piva00 »

bko wrote: post #551
uncomputation wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what are billions of people doing on Facebook if it's harmful? I don't know. This is extremely naive and akin to asking "why do people drink if it’s bad for you then??" Popular != healthy

I think it's incredibly naive and arrogant to tell billions of people who use a product through their own free will "ackchyually its really bad and you should stop". Almost everyone would give you a response similar to mine. They use it because its easy way to plan events since so many people are on it, or a small business can easily create a website, sell something or just kill some time on the can. Give it a rest.

Would you say the same about cigarettes? Billions of people used to smoke it as well, it was (and still is) quite popular, is it arrogant and patronising to tell them: this is unhealthy for you, and affects society in harmful ways?
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