641–650 of 704 posts
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Complicated, costly, and, as it turns out, illegal.
We’ll see what the Supreme Court says, or what happens after he shuffles the deck a few times and yells at people more. :s The underlying issue is complete chaos and confusion caused by this situation, not just any specific actual Tariff or not.
I'm really hoping the SCOTUS wrecks his whole plan on this. We've had enough kings down through history. We'll know once and for all if they are truly sold out or not when they make this decision because clearly he has been violating the Constitution for months now with these executive orders
Clutching at straws but one silver lining from the accelerationist perspective is that the global economic damage of US Tariff War 2.0. will speed up the adoption of AI / automation. Payroll is one of the most expensive, high risk and illiquid commitments to the organisational budget, so the idea of replacing it with dial up / dial down Saas subscriptions will move from 'good idea' to 'business critical' The effect w…
If this is the silver lining I’d hate to see the cloud
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China’s GDP growth is no longer in double digits; it’s in the 4–5% range, and many analysts expect it to fall further due to demographic decline and low productivity growth due to capital investments in infrastructure not needed but politically necessary due to city politics. U.S. per-capita income is roughly $80,000, while China’s is about $13,000. Adjusted for purchasing power it would take decades (at current traj…
Debt trap diplomacy is nicely covered in a fun read called Confessions of an Economic Hit Man. Was the standard approach from the US for a while during the Cold War
U.S. aid was about Cold War geopolitics, China’s BRI is about long-term economic influence via infrastructure debt.
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The U.S. has no official language, and no one who moves here is required to learn English. Especially in NYC, where so many neighborhoods predominantly speak a language that is not English (Brighton Beach, Sunset Park, Flushing, Chinatown, etc.) Assuming someone speaking another language is both a “recent arrival” and working illegally is… something. Apparently it’s not xenophobic, but it’s not a good look.
There are and have been pockets in immigrant communities where e.g. older members would live their entire lives in US and never speak a word of English. But conversely, no one expected the rest of us to know Chinese, German, French, Italian, Japanese, Russian, ..., etc. But somehow now we are supposed to accept a sizeable subset of our nation to only speak Spanish. > Assuming someone speaking another language is both…
Good news! We share the value of "be cool about it, we're all just trying our best"
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"Risk" is the term for unknown information, and is priced in.
How can they even price it if there is no model for (true instead of theoretical) risk?
Insurance companies totally operate on evaluating and quantifying risk.
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She did, everyone just sort of... pretended she didn't. So they could have plausible deniability for voting for Trump. See also: Harris is an elite! (Trump is more elite), Trump knows business (he's a pretty bad business man), Harris did nothing in office! (She was VP), Trump is the underdog! (He's literally already been president)
She did? What was her platform? I never did figure it out.
https://www.deseret.com/politics/2024/09/09/harris-policy-pl...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-campaign-promises-...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/...
All of the above were posted prior to the 2024 election.
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Maybe if Harris had made a few she would have won…
Harris was a terrible candidate. And not chosen by the delegates. The Democrats have to take some of the blame for Trump 2.0, surely? Trump was a terrible candidate and could've been beaten if a good candidate running against him.
My point being: at some point the American electorate has to take responsibility for picking the worst available person. The Democrats did not compel them to vote for Trump.
In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…
"Growth momentum" isn't a thing, and more over China's growth is slowing . This would be wholly expected under normal circumstances because it's no longer a developing economy, it's a developed economy - the absurd GDP growth rates it had are won off the fact that industrialization is an enormous, enormous change in productivity but you only get to do it once.
Industrialization, like deindustrialization, is a continuous process. Every industry suffers from depreciation and decay which means that pace of industrialization per unit time matters.
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What do you mean “the rest of the world will take up the slack”? Is the rest of the world suddenly going to start buying something they haven’t in the past? Why? And the US consumer market is 2x the size of the next biggest (EU). How exactly is the the rest of the world going to replace the demand of something several times its size?
China exported something like 525 billion worth of goods last year to the US. Not all good can be replaced but let’s say something like 350 billion worth of goods are unmarketable because of the tariffs. Do you really think the whole world can’t swallow 350 billion of imports?
So the world needs to absorb almost half a trillion of new supply.