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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#641

Post by louthy »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

> Maybe it was the deficit outlook, maybe the global response to tariffs

Or, maybe, and hear me out on this, maybe it was Donald Trump literally saying he might default on US debt.

Maybe.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#642

Post by amelius »

davidguetta wrote: post #469
compumike wrote: post #305

Is it just the historical legacy of international trade that tariffs apply only to physical goods, but not to something like software-as-a-service subscriptions, digital media, or intellectual property? As the latter categories are more representative of US exports, it would surely be an interesting escalation if other countries were to start including them in their “retaliatory” tariffs.

I still wonder why this was not done instantly by EU. US has an imbalance on goods that was used to calculate the tariff amount, but it has the opposite imbalance on service from what I've read

What I don't understand is why other countries didn't make the threat to make any tariffs hold for a year or longer. That would scare Trump away from doing these stupid experiments.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#643

Post by Spooky23 »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

I think you’re projecting more advanced thinking here than you can give them credit for. The administration doesn’t have military guys keeping discipline.

You have Trump who has an instinctive affinity for tariffs, and a wack pack of various characters doing whatever. I’d guess they thought the Chinese would roll over rather that start dumping bonds.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#644

Post by dmonitor »

Herring wrote: post #552
slg wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely wondering why so many people are still giving the Trump administration this much benefit of the doubt that their moves are strategically sound? We're really still doing the whole "3D chess" thing with this guy after he has shown over and over again that he mostly just acts on impulse and the primary qualification for his advisors is loyalty over any type of intelligence or expertise?

[flagged]

That's not it at all. I'm sure there's lots of sycophants out there, but a lot of people just don't find "he's stupid and it's random" a satisfying explanation for his actions, even if they disagree with them.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#645

Post by Aperocky »

tombert wrote: post #133
davidw wrote: post #33

One thing companies love is lots of uncertainty like this. It keeps their accountants entertained! "Maybe we should build a factory in the US" ... 24 hours later ... "well, not today". What's really amazing is all the muttering from "Very Important Wall Street" type people who are saying that he's insane. Like... with that kind of salary, weren't you paying attention? We've known he wasn't right in the head for a whi…

At this point, I do wonder if long-dated (2-3 months) American-style Puts are a good idea. The weirdness of this administration has created a lot of volatility. With American-style options you are allowed to exercise early, so if you think there's going to be a ton of ups and downs in the next few months, I wonder if this could be lucrative. I might try this just as an experiment with one of the cheaper options.

Given my exposure I've loaded up with long puts right after this news.

Puts are a necessary hedge now for your 401ks or stock grants.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#647

Post by magicreadu »

hayst4ck wrote: post #606
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

Both you and OP are not looking at this from the right angle. The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping.

US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the have that right.

And China has shown that agreement with them has no value. Remember that China promised trump in term 1 to massively import US goods and reduce fentanyl, in part to slow trumps tariff down. They did neither of those things. Trump hasn’t forgotten that.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#648

Post by Hikikomori »

pb7 wrote: post #368
mtremsal wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many EU countries have done the same in recent weeks. This is less about putting diplomatic pressure, and more about warning people to avoid traveling to the US due to real danger.

There is no real danger so this is mostly diplomatic pressure.

German and another Europeans were detained by ICE and ended up spending weeks in solitary confinement, past their plane back.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#649

Post by palmotea »

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #42

So we're all in for another ride like this in 3 months? How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment? As nice as this surge is, I'm more focused on upping my cash reserves and bracing myself for a recession.

> How are businesses supposed to plan anything in this environment?

Honestly, that's one thing that makes me happy about these tariffs: big business is used to getting its way, and tariffs are very much not what they wanted. I've enjoyed the articles about Wall Street Billionaires getting mad and feeling helpless.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#650

Post by spacemadness »

hayst4ck wrote: post #606
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize. These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever…

People are so desperate for this to be rational. Which itself is entirely irrational given the information at hand.
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