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String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

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Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#641

Post by IshKebab »

waveBidder wrote: post #618
lostdog wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, what a perfect description of why their probability-logic leads to silly beliefs. I've been wondering how to argue within their frame for a while, and here's what I've come up with: Is the likelihood that aliens exist, are unfriendly, and AGI will help us beat them higher or lower than the likelihood that the AGI itself that we develop is unfriendly to us and wants to FOOM us? Show your work.

the term you're looking for is pascal's mugging, and it originates from within rationalism

It seems a bit nonsense to me.

> The mugger argues back that for any low but strictly greater than 0 probability of being able to pay back a large amount of money (or pure utility) there exists a finite amount that makes it rational to take the bet.

This is a basic logic error. It ignores the very obvious fact that increasing the reward amount decreases the probability that it will be returned.

E.g. if the probability of the reward R being returned is (0.5/R) we get "a low by strictly greater than 0 probability", and for that probability there is a (different) finite reward that would make it rational to take the bet, but it's not R.

This is even simpler and more stupid than the "proofs" that 0=1. It does not change my opinion that philosophers (and lesswrong) are idiots.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#642

Post by suddenlybananas »

shadowgovt wrote: post #599
lostdog wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, what a perfect description of why their probability-logic leads to silly beliefs. I've been wondering how to argue within their frame for a while, and here's what I've come up with: Is the likelihood that aliens exist, are unfriendly, and AGI will help us beat them higher or lower than the likelihood that the AGI itself that we develop is unfriendly to us and wants to FOOM us? Show your work.

Much of philosophy throughout history seems to operate this way. I think philosophy is a noble pursuit, but it's worth noting how often people drew very broad conclusions, and then acted on them, from not very much data. Consider the dozens of theories of the constitution of the world from the time of the Greek thinkers (even the atomic theory doesn't look very much at all like atoms as we now understand them), or th…

The idea that you need evidence to justify your beliefs is a philosophical position.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#643

Post by zozbot234 »

RIMR wrote: post #560
nkurz wrote: post #49

Most of the news coverage I've seen of this story is omitting what some might consider a relevant detail: almost all the members of this group are trans. This is a divisive topic, but failing to mention this makes me worry a story is pushing a particular agenda rather than trying to tell the facts. Here's what the story looks like if the trans activism is considered central to the story: https://thepostmillennial.com…

I'm sorry, but Andy Ngo is beyond "biased" - he is deliberately derogatory towards the trans community whenever he has the opportunity. If the gender identities of the Zizians aren't being brought up in the mainstream press, it's likely because it isn't relevant to the story. Responsible reporting includes not bringing up details that could encourage moral panic or hate crimes if they aren't demonstrably relevant to…

The fact that a death/murder cult might be deliberately targeting vulnerable trans folks for recruitment and indoctrination can certainly be relevant. I agree that merely talking about "a vegan trans" murder cult, as some media outlets did, would be something rather different however.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#644

Post by Seattle3503 »

suddenlybananas wrote: post #642
shadowgovt wrote: post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of philosophy throughout history seems to operate this way. I think philosophy is a noble pursuit, but it's worth noting how often people drew very broad conclusions, and then acted on them, from not very much data. Consider the dozens of theories of the constitution of the world from the time of the Greek thinkers (even the atomic theory doesn't look very much at all like atoms as we now understand them), or th…

The idea that you need evidence to justify your beliefs is a philosophical position.

It's a pretty good one.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#645

Post by sph »

rachofsunshine wrote: post #149

[Former member of that world, roommates with one of Ziz's friends for a while, so I feel reasonably qualified to speak on this.] The problem with rationalists/EA as a group has never been the rationality, but the people practicing it and the cultural norms they endorse as a community. As relevant here: 1) While following logical threads to their conclusions is a useful exercise, each logical step often involves some…

Great summary, and you can add utilitarianism to the bucket of ideologies that are just too rigid to fully explain the world and too rational for human brains not to create a misguided cult around

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#647

Post by HeatrayEnjoyer »

rachofsunshine wrote: post #149

[Former member of that world, roommates with one of Ziz's friends for a while, so I feel reasonably qualified to speak on this.] The problem with rationalists/EA as a group has never been the rationality, but the people practicing it and the cultural norms they endorse as a community. As relevant here: 1) While following logical threads to their conclusions is a useful exercise, each logical step often involves some…

Eliezer is many things but I don't see him behaving egotisticaly. He has always come across very genuine.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#648

Post by gosub100 »

Aurornis wrote: post #346
kiba wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The community/offshoot I am part of is mostly liberal/left. My impression that lesswrong is also liberal/left.

> The community/offshoot I am part of is mostly liberal/left There isn't an official "rationalist" community. Some consider LessWrong to be the center, but there have always been different communities and offshoots. As far as I know, a lot of the famous rationalist figures haven't participated much in LessWrong for a long time now. The far right offshoot I was referring to is known as "TheMotte" or "The Motte". It wa…

This is more of a reddit problem. They don't allow true discourse anymore and this is the consequence. It's harder to have a rational debate about a difficult topic while still courting advertisers. So it became an echo chamber and a bunch of people left. That's what you're describing.

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#649

Post by StefanBatory »

juanani wrote: post #591
rachofsunshine wrote: post #149

[Former member of that world, roommates with one of Ziz's friends for a while, so I feel reasonably qualified to speak on this.] The problem with rationalists/EA as a group has never been the rationality, but the people practicing it and the cultural norms they endorse as a community. As relevant here: 1) While following logical threads to their conclusions is a useful exercise, each logical step often involves some…

[flagged]

any reason you decided to use slurs here?

Re: String of recent killings linked to Bay Area 'Zizians'

#650

Post by saagarjha »

ars wrote: post #475
nejsjsjsbsb wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why Trump won is an interesting topic. There is a mixture of reasons but I think high up there was Biden pulling out last minute and Kamala being unpopular with little time to do a campaign. She also had the backfoot of having been in power while there was inflation and support for the Gaza genocide. Therefore Trump won less then Kamala lost. There is a subreddit dedicate to people both democrats who refused to vote,…

[flagged]

> I don't know why you would write that

Really?

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