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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#641

Post by euvin »

chairmansteve wrote: post #639
hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Think of AI as an excavator. You know, those machines that dig holes. 70 years ago, those holes would have been dug by 50 men with shovels. Now it's one guy in an excavator. But we don't have mass unemployment. The excavator just creates more work for bricklayers, carpenters etc. If AI lives up to hype, you could be the excavator driver. Or, the AI will create a ton of upstream and downstream work. There will be no m…

If AGI is the excavator, why wouldn't it become the driver, bricklayer, and carpenter as well?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#642

Post by sakopov »

Maybe I'm missing something vital, but how does anything that we've seen AI do up until this point or explained in this experiment even hint at AGI? Can any of these models ideate? Can they come up with technologies and tools? No and it's unlikely they will any time soon. However, they can make engineers infinitely more productive.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#643

Post by kirab »

FYI: Codeforces competitive programming scores (basically only) by time needed until valid solutions are posted

https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/133094

That means.. this benchmark is just saying o3 can write code faster than must humans (in a very time-limited contest, like 2 hours for 6 tasks). Beauty, readability or creativity is not rated. It’s essentially a "how fast can you make the unit tests pass" kind of competition.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#644

Post by fruit_snack »

creer wrote: post #576
hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

You are going through your studies just as a (potentially major) new class of tools is appearing. It's not the first time in history - although with more hype this time: computing, personal computing, globalisation, smart phones, chinese engineering... I'd suggest (1) you still need to understand your field, (2) you might as well try and figure out where this new class of tools is useful for your field. Otherwise...…

This reply irked me a bit because it clearly comes from a software engineer’s point of view and seems to miss a key equivalence between software & physical engineering.

Yes a new tool is coming out and will be exponentially improving.

Yes the nature of work will be different in 20 years.

But don’t you still need to understand the underlying concepts to make valid connections between the systems you’re using and drive the field (or your company) forward?

Or from another view, don’t we (humanity) need people who are willing to do this? Shouldn’t there be a valid way for them to be successful in that pursuit?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#645

Post by realce »

chairmansteve wrote: post #639
hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Think of AI as an excavator. You know, those machines that dig holes. 70 years ago, those holes would have been dug by 50 men with shovels. Now it's one guy in an excavator. But we don't have mass unemployment. The excavator just creates more work for bricklayers, carpenters etc. If AI lives up to hype, you could be the excavator driver. Or, the AI will create a ton of upstream and downstream work. There will be no m…

Is there any possible technology that could make labor, mastery, or human expirence obsolete?

Are there no limits to this argument? Is it some absolute universal law that all new creations just create increasing economic opportunities?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#646

Post by jebarker »

sakopov wrote: post #642

Maybe I'm missing something vital, but how does anything that we've seen AI do up until this point or explained in this experiment even hint at AGI? Can any of these models ideate? Can they come up with technologies and tools? No and it's unlikely they will any time soon. However, they can make engineers infinitely more productive.

You need to define ideate, tools and technologies to answer those questions. Not to mention that it's quite possible humans do those things through re-combination of learned ideas similarly to how these reasoning models are suggested to be working.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#647

Post by bdjsiqoocwk »

ripped_britches wrote: post #544

Sad to see everyone so focused on compute expense during this massive breakthrough. GPT-2 originally cost $50k to train, but now can be trained for ~$150. The key part is that scaling test-time compute will likely be a key to achieving AGI/ASI. Costs will definitely come down as is evidenced by precedents, Moore’s law, o3-mini being cheaper than o1 with improved performance, etc.

[dead]

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#648

Post by lucubratory »

miki123211 wrote: post #542
bluecoconut wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

some other imporant quotes: "Average human off the street: 70-80%. STEM college grad: >95%. Panel of 10 random humans: 99-100%" -@fchollet on X So, considering that the $3400/task system isn't able to compete with STEM college grad yet, we still have some room (but it is shrinking, i expect even more compute will be thrown and we'll see these barriers broken in coming years) Also, some other back of envelope calculat…

It's also worth keeping in mind that AIs are a lot less risky to deploy for businesses than humans. You can scale them up and down at any time, they can work 24/7 (including holidays) with no overtime pay and no breaks, they need no corporate campuses, office space, HR personnel or travel budgets, you don't have to worry about key employees going on sick/maternity leave or taking time off the moment they're needed mo…

>secretly turn out to be a pedophile and tarnish the reputation of your company

This is interesting because it's both Oddly Specific and also something I have seen happen and I still feel really sorry for the company involved. Now that I think about it, I've actually seen it happen twice.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#649

Post by neom »

salter2 wrote: post #506
OhioMan2943 wrote: post #456

I'm 22 and have no clue what I'm meant to do in a world where this is a thing. I'm moving to a semi rural, outdoorsy area where they teach data science and marine science and I can enjoy my days hiking, and the march of technology is a little slower. I know this will disrupt so much of our way of life, so I'm chasing what fun innocent years are left before things change dramatically.

I'm the same age as you; I feel lost, erring in being a little too pessimistic. Feels like I hit the real world just a couple years too late to get situated in a solid position. Years of obsession in attempt to catch up to the wizards, chasing the tech dream. But this, feels like this is it. Just watching the timebomb tick. I'd love to work on what feels like the final technology, but I'm not a freakshow like what th…

Put another way, you have deep conviction in a change that vast majority of people have not even seen yet, never mind grokked, and you're young enough to spend some decent amount of time on education for "venn'ing" yourself into a useful tool in the future. If you have a baseline education, there are any number of orthogonal skills you could add, be it philosophy, fine art, medicine, whatever. You know how to skate and you know where the puck is going, most most people, don't even see the rink.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#650

Post by stocknoob »

ripped_britches wrote: post #544

Sad to see everyone so focused on compute expense during this massive breakthrough. GPT-2 originally cost $50k to train, but now can be trained for ~$150. The key part is that scaling test-time compute will likely be a key to achieving AGI/ASI. Costs will definitely come down as is evidenced by precedents, Moore’s law, o3-mini being cheaper than o1 with improved performance, etc.

It’s wild, are people purposefully overlooking that inference costs are dropping 10-100x each year?

https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/

Look at the log scale slope, especially the orange MMLU > 83 data points.

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