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Artificial intelligence is losing hype

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you’ve used LLMs enough. They are revolutionary, every day. As a coder I’m several times more productive than I was before, especially when trying to learn some new library or language.

Are you making several times as much money? IME LLMs are great at giving you the experience of learning, in the same way sugar gives you the experience of nourishment

Developer productivity doesn't map very directly to compensation. If one engineer is 10x as productive as another, they're lucky if they get 2x the compensation.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#642

The sweet spot of the current LLMs (not whatever the next gen might or might not improve on) for me is similar to suddenly having an army of idiots at my fingertips. There are a lot of smallish tasks/problems people/systems needs to deal with, some of them even waste notable real engineering capacity, and a highschooler could do manually quite easily by hand. Example: find out if a text contains an email address, inc…

The problem is that these idiots are very expensive for now.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#643

If anything, i'm getting more hyped up over time. Here are the things i've used LLMs for, with success in all areas as a solo technical founder. Business Advice including marketing, reaching out to investors, understanding SAFE notes (follow up questions after watching the Y Combinator videos), customer interview design. All of which, as an engineer, I had never done before. Create SQL queries for all kinds of busine…

> Helping with challenging code problems that would otherwise need hours of searching google or reading the docs. I'm glad this has been working for you -- generally any time I actually have a really difficult problem, ChatGPT just makes up the API I wish existed. Then when I bring it up to ChatGPT, it just apologizes and invents new API.

LLMs aren't good when you drift out of the training distribution. You want to be hitting the meat in the middle and leveraging the LLM to blast through it quickly.

That means LLMs are great for scaffolding, prototypes, the v0.1 of new code especially when it's very ordinary logic but using a language or library you're not 100% up to speed on.

One project I was on recently was translation: converting a JS library into Kotlin. In-editor AI code completion made this really quick: I pasted a snippet of JS for translation in a comment, and the AI completed the Kotlin version. It was frequently not quite right, but it was way faster than without. In particular, when there was repeated blocks of code for different cases that different only slightly, once I got the first block correct, the LLM picked up on the pattern in-context and applied it correctly for the remaining blocks. Even when it's wrong, if it has an opportunity to learn locally, it can do so.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're currently already relying on overworked, underpaid interns who draft those documents. The lawyer is checking it anyway. Now the lawyer and his intern have time to check it.

I suggest we do not repeat the myth and urban legend that LLMs are good for legal document review. I had a couple of real use cases used for real clients who were hyped about LLMs to be used for document review and trying to save salary, for Engish language documents. We've found Kira, Luminance and similar due diligence project management stuff as useful being a timesaver if done right. But not LLMs. Due to longer c…

I'm not talking about reviewing, only drafting. Every word should be checked. A terrible idea relying on the advice of an LLM.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're currently already relying on overworked, underpaid interns who draft those documents. The lawyer is checking it anyway. Now the lawyer and his intern have time to check it.

I have no idea what type of law you're talking about here, but (given the context of the thread) I can guarantee you major firms working on M&As are most definitely not using underpaid interns to draft those documents. They are overpaid qualified solicitors.

Apologies I mean candidate attorneys when I say interns. Those overpaid qualified attorneys, read it and sign off on it.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your LLM on the other hand, has no context in which it shows such a level of cognitive capacity Yes, it will be confused as well, and for all outwards observable signs will fail to make sense of the stimuli, yet it will "aware" of its inability to understand, much like a human brain would. If you doubt that, open a new session and type some random tokens, you will get the answer that it's confused. Any other statem…

You persist in talking nonsense. >Yes, it will be confused as well, and for all outwards observable signs will fail to make sense of the stimuli, yet it will "aware" of its inability to understand, much like a human brain would. >If you doubt that, open a new session and type some random tokens, you will get the answer that it's confused. There is no empirical evidence of any awareness whatsoever in any LLM, at all.…

It seems you've lost the train of your own argument.

> has no context in which it shows such a level of cognitive capacity

You claim LLMs have no context at all in which it shows a similar level of cognitive capacity.

Yet clearly this claim is in contention with the fact that an LLM will indeed be able to evince this, much like a human brain would: by attesting to its own confusion. That is ostensibly empirical and evidential to a nonzero degree.

Thus your claim is too strong and therefore quite simply wrong. Claim mimicry? Then prove human brain consciousness does not derive from the process of mimicry in any form. You can't. In fact, the free energy principle, neuroscience's leading theory of human consciousness, argues the opposite: that prediction and mimicry encompass the entirety of what brains actually do. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_coding

> There is no empirical evidence of any awareness whatsoever in any LLM, at all.

And no such claim was made--"awareness" was quoted for a reason.

> It's literally designed to mimic in such a way. And you speak of discussions of consciousness being about the philosophical and unanswerable?

Yes, as this was parent's claim: "They are not cognizant let alone conscious'.

And talking about sloppy argument--it may well turn out that something can be "designed to mimic" yet still be conscious. I'll leave that for you to puzzle out how on earth that might be possible. The exercise might help you form less sloppy arguments in the future.

> You're applying the same notion to something that shows no evidence of awareness while then criticizing assumptions of consciousness in a human brain?

No. But I suppose you've lost the plot a few inferential steps prior this so your confusion is not surprising.

Protip, instead of claiming everything that goes against your sensibilities as nonsense, perhaps entertain the possibility that you might just not be as well informed as you thought.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#647

This should really be retitled to “The AI investment bubble is losing hype.” LLMs as they exist today will slowly work their way into new products and use cases. They are an important new capability and one that will change how we do certain tasks. But as to the hype, we are in a brief pause before the election where no company wants to release anything that would hit the news cycle in a bad way and cause knee-jerk l…

> But as to the hype, we are in a brief pause before the election where no company wants to release anything that would hit the news cycle in a bad way and cause knee-jerk legislation. The knee-jerk legislation has mostly been caused by Altman's statements though. So I wouldn't call it knee-jerk, but an attempt by OpenAI to get a legally granted monopoly.

They are definitely working on that, but it needs to be the right kind of knee-jerk legislation, something that gives them regulatory capture. They can’t afford to lose control of the narrative and end up regulated to death.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#648
post #207

AI (specifically Claude Sonnet via Cursor) has completely transformed my workflow. It's changed my job description as a programmer. (And I've been doing this for 13y – no greenhorn!) This wasn't the case with GPT-4/o. This capability is very new. When I spoke to a colleague at Microsoft about these changes, they were floored. Microsoft has made themselves synonymous with AI, yet their company is barely even leveragin…

I feel like I'm living in a different universe sometimes. The consensus on HN seems to be that you can be pretty productive with LLMs as coding assistants, but every time I try I find it borderline impossible to get functional code even for pretty straightforward prompts. I decided to fire up GPT-4o again today to see if maybe things have gotten better over the past few months. I asked GPT to write code to render a t…

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only thing these engines do, for me perhaps, is save some search time. This. Saving time(or money if you see them as the same) is the whole point actually. Intelligence is supposed to be in the context of a shared Goal or beliefs. In your case and case of most humans time and money is the context. Are ant(insect) networks intelligent? Possibly, They do help millions of them communicate quickly. But ants don't h…

> But ants don't have a brain. Ants have a brain, albeit a small one - some 250,000 nerve cells vs 100 billion neurons in the human brain [1] It is somewhat like saying an Intel 4004 is not really a microprocessor as it only has 2,300 transistors vs an Apple M4 with 28 billion transistors. [1] https://www.smorescience.com/do-ants-have-brains/

Debating this point is a bit like bike shedding and besides the point. The point is they can't think nearly as closely like humans, but a network of them can seemingly do intelligent things. Intelligence is only about shared goals and beliefs with an agent(the other ants in this example) and achieving them.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your response is nonsense. We don't know how consciousness arises from matter but we do have significant understandings about knowledge, reasoning, modeling, visualization, object permanence, etc. etc. that are significant parts of how the human mind works. And we know LLMs have none of these. The point of my colored shape example is that it is an illusion that there is anything resembling a mind inside an LLM. I tho…

> And we know LLMs have none of these. Go ahead and cite your sources. For every study claiming that LLMs lack these qualities, there are others that support and reinforce the connectionist model of how knowledge is encoded, and with other parallels to the human brain. So... it's inconclusive. It's bizarre why you so strongly insist otherwise when it's clear you are not informed. > The point of my colored shape examp…

We know LLMs don't have those things prima facia because they fail at all of them constantly. We also know how they work, they are token predicters. That is all they are and all they can do. What can be accomplished with that is pretty cool, but humans love to imagine there is more going on when there isn't. Just like with Eliza.

If you don't understand how your attempt to apply my colored shape analogy to a human brain is nonsensical I am not going to waste my time explaining it to you. I had a point, I made it, and apparently it escaped you.

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