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A coder considers the waning days of the craft

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Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#641
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d need to see it. I can’t get ChatGPT to outperform a novice. And now I’m having candidates argue that they don’t need to learn the fundamentals because LLMs can do it for them.. Good luck HTML/CSS expert who couldn’t produce a valid HTML5 skeleton. Reminds me of the pre-LLM guy who said he was having trouble because usually uses React.. So I told him he could use React. I don’t mean to rag on novices but these guy…

I'm always asking it to stitch together ad hoc bash command lines for me, eg "find all the files called *.foo in directories called bar and search them for baz". (`find / -type d -name 'bar' -exec find {} -type f -name '*.foo' \; | xargs grep 'baz'` apparently.) I would have done that differently, but it's close enough for government work.

Same here! Thats the main use I have for ChatGPT in any practical sense today - generating Bash commands. I set about giving it prompts to do things that I've had to do in the past - it was great at it.

Find all processes named '*-fpm' and kill the ones that have been active for more than 60 seconds - then schedule this as a Cron job to run every 60 seconds. It not only made me a working script rather than a single command but it explained its work. I was truly impressed.

Yes it can generate some code wireframes that may be useful in a given project or feature. But I can do that too, usually in about the time it'd take me to adequately form my request into a prompt. Life could get dangerous in a hurry if product management got salty enough in the requirements phase that the specs for a feature could just be dropped into some code assistant and generate product. I don't see that happening ever though - not even with tooling - product people just don't seem to think that way in the first place in my experience.

As developers we spend a lot of our time modifying existing product - and if the LLM knows about that product - all the better job it could do I suppose. Not saying that LLMs aren't useful now and won't become more useful in time - because they certainly will.

What I am saying is that we all like to think of producing code as some mystical gift that only we as experienced (BRILLIANT, HANDSOME AND TALENTED TOO!!) developers are capable of. The reality is that once we reach a certain level of career maturity, if we were ever any good in the first place, writing code becomes the easiest part of the job. So theres a new tool that automates the easiest part of the job? Ok - autocomplete code editors we're cool too like that. The IDE was a game changer too. Automated unit tests were once black magic too (remember when the QA department was scared of this?).

When some AI can look at a stack trace from a set of log files, being fully aware of the entire system architecture, locate the bug that compiled and passed testing all the way to production, recommend, implement, test and pre-deploy a fix while a human reviews the changes then we're truly onto something. Until then I'm not worried that it can write some really nice SQL against my schema with all kinds of crazy joins - because I can do that too - sometimes faster - sometimes not.

So far ChatGPT isn't smarter than me but it is a very dutiful intern that does excellent work if you're patient and willing to adequately describe the problem, then make a few tweaks at the end. "Tweaks" up to seeing how the AI approached it, throwing it out and doing it your own way too.

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#642
post #613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I recently asked ChatGPT to produce similar CSS and it did so flawlessly. I use ChatGPT every day for many tasks in my work and find it very helpful, but I simply do not believe this. > The article points this out: middling generalists can now compete with specialists. I'd say it might allow novices to compete with middling generalists, but even that is a stretch. On the contrary, ChatGPT is actually best suited to…

I agree with this. There are cases where it produces good results, but there are also cases where it produces bs, and it's not always obvious. I find it to work fine for cases where I know what I want but could use a starting point, but it often invents or misunderstands all kinds of things. The most frustrating situations are those where it invents a function that would miraculously do what's necessary, I tell it th…

> there are also cases where it produces bs, and it's not always obvious

Particularly annoying because I wind up risking not actually saving time because it’s producing subtle bugs that I wouldn’t have written myself.

So, you save yourself the time of thought and research at the risk of going down new and mysterious rabbit holes

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#643

Do people seriously consider this the waning days of the craft? I don’t understand that. My view is that I am about to enter the quantum productivity period of coding. I am incredibly excited about AI assistance on my coding tasks, because it improves not only what I’m writing, but also helps me to learn as I go. I have never had a better time writing software than I have in the last year. I’ve been writing software…

I agree it's amazing. But your comment doesn't touch on the key economic question that will decide for how many people it will be this amazing new dev experience. If AI makes developers twice as productive (maybe a few years down the road with GPT-6), will this additional supply of developer capacity get absorbed by existing and new demand? Or will there be half as many developers? Or will the same number of develope…

To me this looks like a Jevons Paradox situation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox [1]

Increased developer productivity will lead to a lot more software development, at all levels, rather than less.

1. "In economics, the Jevons paradox occurs when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the falling cost of use induces increases in demand enough that resource use is increased, rather than reduced."

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#644

I have a simple front-end test that I give to junior devs. Every few months I see if ChatGPT can pass it. It hasn’t. It can’t. It isn’t even close. It answers questions confidently but with subtle inaccuracies. The code that it produces is the same kind of non-sense that you get from recent bootcamp devs who’ve “mastered” the 50 technologies on their eight page résumé. If it’s gotten better, I haven’t noticed. Self-d…

So, don't leave us in suspense; what do you ask of it? Because I'm quite sure it can already pass it. Your experience is very different from mine anyway. I am a grumpy old backend dev that uses formal verification in anger when I consider it is needed and who gets annoyed when things don't act logical. We are working with computers, so everything is logical, but no; I mean things like a lot of frontend stuff. I ask o…

I'm not the person you're responding to, but here's an example of it failing subtly:

https://chat.openai.com/share/4e958c34-dcf8-41cb-ac47-f0f6de...

finalAlice's Children have no parent. When you point this out, it correctly advises regarding the immutable nature of these types in F#, then proceeds to produce a new solution that again has a subtle flaw: Alice -> Bob has the correct parent... but Alice -> Bob -> Alice -> Bob is missing a parent again.

Easy to miss this if you don't know what you're doing, and it's the kind of bug that will hit you one day and cause you to tear your hair out when half your program has a Bob-with-parent and the other half has an Orphan-Bob.

Phrase the question slightly differently, swapping "Age: int" with "Name: string":

https://chat.openai.com/share/df2ddc0f-2174-4e80-a944-045bc5...

Now it produces invalid code. Share the compiler error, and it produces code that doesn't compile but in a different way -- it has marked Parent mutable but then tried to mutate Children. Share the new error, and it concludes you can't have mutable properties in F#, when you actually can, it just tried marking the wrong field mutable. If you fix the error, you have correct code, but ChatGPT-4 has misinformed you AND started down a wrong path...

Don't get me wrong - I'm a huge fan of ChatGPT, but it's nowhere near where it needs to be yet.

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#645
post #624

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree it's amazing. But your comment doesn't touch on the key economic question that will decide for how many people it will be this amazing new dev experience. If AI makes developers twice as productive (maybe a few years down the road with GPT-6), will this additional supply of developer capacity get absorbed by existing and new demand? Or will there be half as many developers? Or will the same number of develope…

> “ If AI makes developers twice as productive (maybe a few years down the road with GPT-6), will this additional supply of developer capacity get absorbed by existing and new demand? Or will there be half as many developers? Or will the same number of developers get paid far less than today? ” Something to remember is that every new innovation in software development only raises the expectations of the people paying…

I agree that demand will very likely grow with expectations to absorb some of the additional capacity. But there is a limit to that because companies compete on more than just software. They also compete on price and on other things that have nothing to do with software.

If the price of software drops, it's not a given that all of the savings will be spent more and better software.

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#646
post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was on a team developing a critical public safety system on a tight deadline a few years ago, and i had to translate some wireframes for the admin back-end into CSS. I did a passable job but it wasn’t a perfect match. I was asked to redo it by the team-lead. It had zero business value, but such was the state of our team…being pixel perfect was a source of pride. It was one of the incidents that made me to stop fron…

> I recently asked ChatGPT to produce similar CSS and it did so flawlessly. I use ChatGPT every day for many tasks in my work and find it very helpful, but I simply do not believe this. > The article points this out: middling generalists can now compete with specialists. I'd say it might allow novices to compete with middling generalists, but even that is a stretch. On the contrary, ChatGPT is actually best suited to…

That's about my experience.

The worst dev on my team uses ChatGPT a lot, and its facilitated him producing more bad code more quickly. I'm not sure it's a win for anyone, and he's still unlikely to be with the team in a year.

It allows a dev who doesn't care about their craft or improving to generate code without learning anything. The code they generate today or a year from today is the same quality.

Part of it is that it allows devs who lean into overcomplicating things to do so even more. The solutions are never a refinement of what already exists, but patch on top of patch on top of patch of complexity. ChatGPT is not going to tell you how to design a system, architect properly, automate, package, test, deploy, etc.

For the team it means there's a larger mess of a code base to rewrite.

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#647

I have a simple front-end test that I give to junior devs. Every few months I see if ChatGPT can pass it. It hasn’t. It can’t. It isn’t even close. It answers questions confidently but with subtle inaccuracies. The code that it produces is the same kind of non-sense that you get from recent bootcamp devs who’ve “mastered” the 50 technologies on their eight page résumé. If it’s gotten better, I haven’t noticed. Self-d…

It is likely that LLM have an upper border of capability. Similarly with denoising AI like stable diffusion.

You can put even more data into it and refine the models, but the growth in capability has diminishing returns. Perhaps this is how far this strategy can bring us, although I believe they can still be vastly improved and what they can already offer is nevertheless impressive.

I have no illusion about the craft of coding becomes obsolete however. On the contrary, I think the tooling for the "citizen developer" are becoming worse, as well as the ability for abstraction in common users since they are fenced into candyland.

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#648

I have a simple front-end test that I give to junior devs. Every few months I see if ChatGPT can pass it. It hasn’t. It can’t. It isn’t even close. It answers questions confidently but with subtle inaccuracies. The code that it produces is the same kind of non-sense that you get from recent bootcamp devs who’ve “mastered” the 50 technologies on their eight page résumé. If it’s gotten better, I haven’t noticed. Self-d…

That's been my experience both with Tesla AP/FSD implementation & with LLMs. Super neat trick the first time you encounter it, feels like alien tech from the future. Then you find all the holes. Use it for months/years and you notice the holes aren't really closing.. The pace of improvement is middling compared to the gap to it meeting the marketing/rhetoric. Eventually using them feels more like a chore than not usi…

Yep, lots of people are using LLMs for problems LLMs aren't good at.

They still do an alright job, but you get that exact situation of 'eh, its just okay'.

Its the ability to use those responses when they are good, and knowing when to move on from using an LLM as a tool.

Re: A coder considers the waning days of the craft

#650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say we don't need coders. We need less average/bad ones and a very large amounts of coders that came after the 'coding makes $$$$' worldwide are not even average. I won't say AI will not eventually make coding obsolete; even just 2 years ago I would've said we are 50-100 years away from that. No i'm not so sure. However, I am saying that I can replace many programmers with gpt right now, and I am. The prompt…

In my mind, we need more folks who have both the ability to code and the ability to translate business needs into business logic. That’s not a new problem though.

That's what we are doing all day no? I mean besides fighting tooling (which is getting a larger and larger % of the time building stuff).
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