I'm calling it now, this is going to hollow out twitter in extremely rapid fashion. I give twitter a couple of months once this launches, they'll do a Wile E Coyote where they walk off the cliff, followed by plummeting. Meta is going to grind the blue bird to a fine powder, not saying this as a Meta fan, just a casual observer. There's massive pent-up demand for an alternative, and so far Bluesky and Mastodon haven't…
The stickiness of Twitter isn't just about reliability and handling scale, but also (and in fact mostly) the network effects. You can't transfer over your content, likes, replies, followers. So even in the best case scenario where Threads picks up and outshines Twitter in the long term, do expect that to be a long term. At least few years. That is, unless Elon continues on his steady path of catastrophic degradation…
Threads, an Instagram app
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Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#642(To be clear: I'm 100% expecting "Threads" to become that in the short-to-medium term, unless they have some specific moderation techniques in place.)
This won't make your life "great", mind me. I'm pretty sure it will make it better.
Good luck.
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#643Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stickiness of Twitter isn't just about reliability and handling scale, but also (and in fact mostly) the network effects. You can't transfer over your content, likes, replies, followers. So even in the best case scenario where Threads picks up and outshines Twitter in the long term, do expect that to be a long term. At least few years. That is, unless Elon continues on his steady path of catastrophic degradation…
Networks move when there is a general consensus that their future is at risk though.
Therefore beyond the facade of the public discourse, people will keep using Twitter while it works. Anything else they will do to have plan B will be in addition to Twitter, not instead of.
Meaning few did and will abandon their accounts outright, but they will have the link to this and that in their bio.
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#644Earlier quoted context omitted.
The AI mania has been great for Meta. The android, Zuckerberg is ideally suited to take advantage of it. All year, Meta has been publishing a steady stream of fun, almost-open-source AI models. They have, no doubt, gained a huge amount of kudos, in a short time, from all the AI bros who have taken over twitter. Credit where it's due, the 2023 firmware and model updates to Zuckerberg have been quite impressive.
Just going to post this here, was reading an article about Threads, but it mentioned Twitter as well : >Twitter no longer has a press department. Questions sent to the former email address received a poop emoji as the auto-response. What the heck?
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#645I'm calling it now, this is going to hollow out twitter in extremely rapid fashion. I give twitter a couple of months once this launches, they'll do a Wile E Coyote where they walk off the cliff, followed by plummeting. Meta is going to grind the blue bird to a fine powder, not saying this as a Meta fan, just a casual observer. There's massive pent-up demand for an alternative, and so far Bluesky and Mastodon haven't…
Time will tell. The issue is not scalability. The main issue is conflict. Twitter has both sides there. Truth social is not mainstream even if the main actor is posting every day. Same goes for the other side. There's also social media fatigue. Tiktok came with something "new" and it's growing because of that. Twitter is trying to move into yt space. Fb is trying to stay relevant in anything related to their core bus…
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#646- Monopolistic apps are problematic and unreliable for users - Need for an open standard for communication on these apps, similar to UPI in India for transactions - These apps are used like utilities but governed as services. It is effectively impossible to exist without big tech products right now, as an individual and as a business. We need to fight for digital rights. - Communication should be as essential a utili…
The issue with this theory is that there is no obvious way to have both deep interoperability between apps as well as innovation. Interoperability is a contract,and that contract will slow down product evolution and lead to worse consumer products.
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#647Having said that, the cultures on Instagram and Twitter are no doubt different. So it's hard for me to tell what will transpire here. However, how much of these cultural differences are due to Instagram not having had a live text feed for breaking news etc. before? And how malleable is social network culture?
Threads will also move Instagram closer to Twitter with this. I think how well Meta suceeeds at this is vital to how much of a threat to Twitter this is going to be. Not only this app itself needs to find users; for a real threat they also need to use it for similar things as on Twitter, e.g. politics, a controversial celebrity post here and there, breaking news on the Ukrainian war, earthquakes, imploding submarines...
Finally, I wonder how this will affect Facebook! With both a photo feed, a TikTok-style reels feed, Snapchat-like stories, and Twitter-like Threads... This app that is NOT Facebook is certainly starting to look very complete indeed. Facebook is big where I live so I "need" to be on it to stay in touch, but I can see myself residing more and more on Messages and Marketplace alone, now more than ever.
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#648“Soon, you’ll be able to follow and interact with people on other fediverse platforms, like Mastodon. They can also find you with your full username @username@threads.net.” [1] Did not expect Fediverse integration from Meta. [1] https://9to5google.com/2023/07/03/threads-instagram-app-coun...
They used to run an XMPP bridge on chat.facebook.com
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#649Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agreed. I think this succeeds or fails based on the ability to follow different kinds of things from users separately. If I can follow someone's Threads and not their Reels, I'd be glad to have such an easy migration path off of Twitter (I'm having a lot of fun on bluesky, but it's not ready). I'm not optimistic about that though, because you already can't choose to not follow reels separately from pictures.
I never got a Bluesky invite and I've seen a couple comments mentioning "it's not ready" so I'm wondering why people keep saying that? It has been in development for a while, so I would assume it is ready at this point in time.
Re: Threads, an Instagram app
#650Earlier quoted context omitted.
People on the Fediverse expected it very much. Meta already was trying to talk to the larger instances "off the record"[1]. Fediverse users are already planning to boycott any instance which federates with Meta to block any Embrace, Extend and Extinguish moves. [1] https://fosstodon.org/@kev/110592625692688836 edit: More info here: https://wedistribute.org/2023/06/fedipact-blocking-meta/
This behavior is pathetic. As long as Meta is open to federation to other instances, this can only be a good thing for the entire ecosystem.
That’s a pretty doubtful condition, especially if Threads becomes too successful for the Fediverse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguis...
> Fediverse users are already planning to boycott any instance
Though if this is true, yeah, I dislike that too. It should be individual admins’ choices.