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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#641

Post by rchaud »

scrollaway wrote: post #42
jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

Early 2022 the fears of Russia invading were real. They were downplayed and not talked about much in the mainstream but come January many already saw what Russia was up to. Mostly it’s just that many of us, Ukrainians included (I speak from personal experience - I have Ukrainian close relatives), closed our eyes to Russia actually pulling the trigger. It is just unthinkably stupid and so, so disgusting. That said, th…

> They were downplayed and not talked about much in the mainstream

The western military intelligence communities were aware and had warned about Russian mobilization for months. They were downplayed only by far-right voices in the west that were invested in building up Putin as an effective authoritarian against the slow-moving "woke" bureaucrats of the EU and the US Democrats.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#642

Post by wan_ala »

cpsns wrote: post #562
bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> Year of Linux desktop! After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop. I was blown away by how nice ChromeOS is to use, how seamless everything is, and how well Crostini (I think it's called this) works at running Linux programs. ChromeOS is honestly the single best Linux experience I have…

As someone who used ChromeOS for a year or so, I think its kinda cool that mainstream people are using Linux, but 1: They don't know they are using Linux. Most users dont even know what Linux is. 2: Not open source. 3: Not privacy respecting.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#643

Post by raphar »

nkko wrote: post #526
escapecharacter wrote: post #434

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

- Twitter will be then divided like a Roman empire and each CEO will reign different geo region.

Yahoo Japan

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#644

Post by phtrivier »

scrollaway wrote: post #467
JasonFruit wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't spend $115 billion on a country's war effort unless we are confident we're in control.

You're spending billions on Ukraine (thank you, btw) because Russia's downfall is a net benefit for the US, and Ukraine is a US ally. "Ally" and "puppet" are not the same thing.

To be fair, when your survival depends on the military spending of someone else, the lines between "alliance" and "vasalism" starts to blur. It will (understandably) take some balls for Zelensky to ever refuse anything from Biden in the short term ; and in the long term, US will likely not refrain from using the "remember when we saved you from Putin" card (we've heard this in France for, what 50 years ?)

I'm pretty sure Churchill and De Gaulle were called "pupets of the USA" at some point, and they seem to have gone on _fine_.

That being said, it would be foolish from the US to not "destroy the Russian army for less than 5% of its defense budget, without loosing any soldier".

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#645

Post by kosmos1337 »

bloopernova wrote: post #177

1. A breakthrough in "deepfake voice" is made that can emote convincingly. It is used to add Marilyn Monroe or James Dean to a TV show or movie. A US supreme court challenge to the admissibility of audio recordings is begun, after a murder case is thrown out due to evidence being shown to be an audio deepfake. 2. A single climate catastrophe-linked weather event causes tens of thousands of deaths. Governments pledge…

I'm not sure if I follow number 3, can you elaborate?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#646

Post by nine_k »

toyg wrote: post #539
maerF0x0 wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Globalization is only good for GDP and only on first order thinking. Shipping things that could easily have been made local. Second order cost -- Environmental damage. Concentration of ecological damage (eg smog in China, clear cuts instead of selective foresting etc). Decreasing the varietals of foods brought to market so they're stable for shipping , easier to grade / machine. Second order cost -- higher risk to cr…

> the people are just poorer and more desperate Precisely because of this, globalization is destined to stay. It is the ultimate wet dream of capital: an endless reserve of cheap labor. Marx might not have got the prognosis right, but his diagnosis still holds.

If you look at China, it's exactly due to the West's insatiable appetite for cheaper labor that it has become more technically competent, and more well-off, especially the coastal cities. And this is why it now (for some years) ceases to be a pool of cheap labor: the living standards, while not near Western, have risen so much, the Western customers started finding the labor cost too high. Now it's the turn of Vietnam for many industries.

Previous participants of this joyride: Japan, Korea, half of Southern Europe.

Reserves of cheap labor are not endless, and it's great that the capital actively seeks them out and eventually fills them in.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#647

Post by ThrowawayTestr »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #175
schappim wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re: - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. Has recent advances in the last month not made you more optimistic?

I have a degree in theoretical physics and I would bet money against commercial nuclear fusion within the next 40 years. It's important research, but it's one hell of a long shot.

Have you read about General Fusion and their approach to fusion?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#648

Post by wan_ala »

pfoof wrote: post #525

* there will be another hype for a technology on HN that doesn't introduce anything revolutionary but will have 20 posts on the front page per day (seen this with: SQLite, Postrgres, Rust, Zig; downvotes incoming) * Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) like there was exodus from Tumblr to Twitter, and this social network will change ToS to allow NSFW (my bets are Ins…

>* Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) Maybe I am being too optimistic but it kinda seems like that a big chunk of twitter refugees will move to Mastodon. Maybe not all of them but a lot, like how right now Mastodon is slowly entering the mainstream as sites publish articles about it and many users are already switching to Mastodon. And how the other Twitter alternatives are barely talked about but Mastodon is being brought up as an alternative all the time.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#649

Post by [deleted] »

wan_ala wrote: post #642
cpsns wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Year of Linux desktop! After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop. I was blown away by how nice ChromeOS is to use, how seamless everything is, and how well Crostini (I think it's called this) works at running Linux programs. ChromeOS is honestly the single best Linux experience I have…

As someone who used ChromeOS for a year or so, I think its kinda cool that mainstream people are using Linux, but 1: They don't know they are using Linux. Most users dont even know what Linux is. 2: Not open source. 3: Not privacy respecting.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#650

Post by wan_ala »

scrollaway wrote: post #42
jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

Early 2022 the fears of Russia invading were real. They were downplayed and not talked about much in the mainstream but come January many already saw what Russia was up to. Mostly it’s just that many of us, Ukrainians included (I speak from personal experience - I have Ukrainian close relatives), closed our eyes to Russia actually pulling the trigger. It is just unthinkably stupid and so, so disgusting. That said, th…

Yeah, I think a lot of history of the russo-ukranian war is not known by many americans. Many people didn't even know there was a war until the invasion. I remember tensions building up a few months before the invasion and some people started talking about it (I knew a political dude online who was talking about it a few months before, he was saying something about how things could go down. I wasn't really interested but now I realize he was right (except for him supporting russia tho)).
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