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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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641–650 of 734 posts

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US was really serious about microchips being critical infrastructure we'd want over production. We have more roads than makes sense, we should have more chips on-hand than our critical power and data infrastructure needs to be rebuilt in the event of a catastrophe.

Strategies like this are how you end up with warehouses full of rusting parts. Government-funded overproduction leads to stockpiling at the taxpayer's expense. It's been done many times before (weapons, food, etc.) and always leads to the exact same result: garbage heaps and no available resources when they're actually needed. Offering companies grants and favors to encourage building real, sustainable, on-shore busi…

That assumes there is no use for the "overproduced" parts.

I assure you there would be plenty of customers for $10 cpus that are as fast as modern $100 cpus.

Smart tvs, routers, modems, drones, toys, iot devices.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has switched off the gas before, such as when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. Hell, there's a Wikipedia page listing all of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis... ). One of the stated motivations for Nord Stream 2 was to improve reliability of gas to Europe in case Russia decided to cut off the gas because of a spat with one of the transit countr…

>>>Russia has switched off the gas before, such as when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. Russia switched off the gas 7 years after Putin was screaming from the rooftops that the US sticking ABMs in Eastern Europe was a red line for Russia. That's Russia being an unreliable partner?

Russia switched off the gas essentially because a pro-Russian Ukrainian government was insufficiently pro-Russian.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#643
post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like we did with Ukraine?

Ukraine wasn't blockaded. Taiwan does have fairly good stocks of weapons and ammo. It's also great terrain for fighting a defensive guerilla war. It'd be China's roleplay of "Russia in Afghanistan".

You’re missing the point, which is that we very much did not arm Ukraine ahead of time, just like we are not arming Taiwan right now in required volumes. China could literally blockade Taiwan tomorrow, and our arms are simply not there. What you propose depends very much on getting enough intelligence to ship all the arms they need before the blockade actually starts, and China not blockading Taiwan as soon as it learns about shipments leaving our ports.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#644
post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Expensive private tutoring companies were a hot startup sector until the government crackdown. This is almost entirely due to the Gaokao. Also, there's a difference between prizing education as a means to make money, and prizing education as a means to make a well-rounded person. The concept of a 'liberal arts' education in China barely exists, from the standpoint that education isn't about vocational skills to enr…

galangalalgol's assertion, as I read it, was that China was domestically consuming only 81% of its production because the populace was insufficiently educated because not enough money was being spent on education, and maybe that the cause of this was economic inequality. Are you supporting that assertion, or are you making an unrelated point about educational models? Because the connection isn't clear to me. To the q…

> Are you supporting that assertion, or are you making an unrelated point about educational models? Because the connection isn't clear to me.

I'm just reacting to the point about tutoring as a proxy for valuing education, when in my experience (living in China, and with my extended Chinese family), this mostly results from pressure over the Gaokao. In the US, college admissions aren't so test focused, indeed, a lot of colleges don't even require the SAT/ACT or AP scores for application.

> And, despite paying lip service to free questioning and rebellion, Western schooling consists almost entirely of intensive training in obedience and conformism

Yes, K-12 is mostly about indoctrinating kids into the requirements of society. Nevertheless, Western kids rebel against their parents and school, and media even celebrates this rebellion. Moreover, a growing number of parents commit to alternative K-12 schooling. I sent my kids to Montessori schools when it was possible.

> But I think that's more a matter of the surrounding society than the school system

The school system is a reflection of the surrounding society. If we were analyzing a country where most of the schools were religious schools that drilled a religious book, we'd obviously view the structure of the school as based on the values of the society. To the extent that K-12 education strips kids of their individualities and passions and independence, as it happens in both the US and China, the degree of harshness is substantially more in Asia in general. US school kids come home and after homework (if they do it), tend to play. Asia is renown for kids finishing school, then beginning after-school education, tutors, etc some of them study from 13-16 hrs/day in junior year.

My son is a senior in HS, his first class is 9am, he gets home at 3:30. He has 1hr lunch, and 1hr during the school day of advisory/study hall (tutoring). 2hrs of homework a day max. So about 8-9 hrs of study total. His peer in Shanghai is doing almost double that.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#645
post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?

Blockading Taiwan would require cooperation from Japan, and that's not going to happen

And also the US. China would have to immediately use the "do what we say or we'll nuke you" to keep the world out of helping Taiwan.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#646
post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?

Blockading Taiwan would require cooperation from Japan, and that's not going to happen

Why? PRC will be operating in TW EEZ which it considers Chinese waters anyway. What is Japan going to do except watch helplessly from Yonaguni.

Practically, PRC can simply mine TW ports, crater run ways, via glide mines and MLRS all within PRC borders (that can hit anywhere in TW + adjacent). US + co doesn't remotely have the demining, sealift or airlift capacity to logistically support TW off PRC waters. Nor will they convince any commercial fleet/insurers to go on suicide mission of... invading One China territory. It's like how Operation Starvation crippled JP during WW2. Except TW is much smaller than JP and PRC is a much larger industrial power than US during wartime. PRC can unilaterally and trivially render TW inaccessible - it can blockade TW with basically zero sustained naval or air effort.

And really if US/JP try to run the blockade they're legally invading Chinese sovereign territory and it's WW3 anyway. TW may have chance to survive a PLA invasion, but IMO no chance of breaking a PRC blockade. Folks are grossly underestimating the proponderous of advantages PRC has near her coast.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan's constitution prohibits a traditional military as a result of surrender in WW2. Not having the right to solve your own disputes sounds like vassalization to me. From a face saving perspective "powerful ally country" is probably the status of every vassal state. From a de facto perspective they are not allowed to solve their own disputes and house military bases of a country that solves disputes (with the threa…

Japan is free to change their constitution at any time. AFAIK they are no longer bound by WWII-era treaties with the US. (Can anyone confirm/refute that? Google fails me.)

Japan at least have recently changed a few laws to increase their military forces. Japan is a free country and they could change treaties if they wanted. We are just better off working together. I wonder what would have happened if say China & Russia didn't exist. Then there's be no one to threaten Japan, make them want to be a buddy of the US.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#648
post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

galangalalgol's assertion, as I read it, was that China was domestically consuming only 81% of its production because the populace was insufficiently educated because not enough money was being spent on education, and maybe that the cause of this was economic inequality. Are you supporting that assertion, or are you making an unrelated point about educational models? Because the connection isn't clear to me. To the q…

> Are you supporting that assertion, or are you making an unrelated point about educational models? Because the connection isn't clear to me. I'm just reacting to the point about tutoring as a proxy for valuing education, when in my experience (living in China, and with my extended Chinese family), this mostly results from pressure over the Gaokao. In the US, college admissions aren't so test focused, indeed, a lot o…

I agree with almost all of your comment.

But I do think Chinese culture has greatly valued education (and standardized testing) for about 20 times as long as the gaokao has existed; in that sense, too, the school system is a reflection of the surrounding society, not only vice versa. It's true that the "education" in question has often been more a matter of convincingly repeating established doctrines than of repudiating them, and often valued because it was a gateway to material gain, by way of standardized testing.

On the other hand, I never see the kind of anti-intellectualism that got Trump elected in the US (and Hitler in Germany) in the families of my Chinese friends. I know it can exist in Chinese culture — the Cultural Revolution had plenty of it — but it doesn't seem to be a dominant thread the way it is in the US. And this is true of families from Taiwan, too; it's not just a Mainland Chinese reaction to the CR. They just don't seem to have the nerd/egghead stereotype.

(And I still don't understand why that other person thinks Chinese people don't spend enough on schooling or why they would consume more if they did.)

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#649
post #153

semi stocks are at all time lows and PE levels. Don't let this doom and gloom piece prevent you from buying more

If you didn't sell semi stocks at their peak last November, when will you sell them? And if you didn't buy till they were near their peak, did you really care about PE ratios?

About the time I need to retire is when I will sell

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US isn't going to be caught off guard by China. What the west has been doing for Ukraine in the last few months in terms of weapons, the US and other countries have been doing for Taiwan over the last few decades: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_US_arms_sales_to_Taiwa... The latest sale involves adding 60 Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the pile of hundreds they already have. China will not have an easy time…

Taiwan imports 60-70% of it's food and they can't increase domestic production because they import fertilizer and they can't make their own fertilizer because they import natural gas, and they don't have any domestic gas fields. China doesn't need to storm the beaches, they can passively blockade Taiwan until they give in.

Taiwan has hundreds of anti ship misiles with a range of over 100km.

China doesn’t have to storm beaches to be within shooting range.

If Taiwan were an easy conquest it would have been conquered. It’s not impossible that China would attempt some sort of belligerence, but Taiwan is capable responding to any threat with enough firepower to deter such actions.

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