What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis? • Hacker News Board

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#641

Post by noptd » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 9:35 AM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #389

ChemSpider wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> all of the people in those emails have updated their priors to favor zoonosis, According the to released FOIA'ed emails, these scientists changed their mind within 1-2 days from "wow, could really be a lab leak" to "lab leak is a conspiracy theory" - why that? None of them can explain what made them change their mind on this short time frame in spring 2020. Was there new knowledge? A break thru experiment? They ref…

> None of them can explain what made them change their mind on this short time frame in spring 2020. Was there new knowledge? A break thru experiment? They refuse to say. Again, this isn't true. Plenty of them have explained it. Just not up to the standards of the conspiracy theorists. This goes beyond the "lab leak vs. natural origin" debate and is now, what, including American scientists in covering up the lab leak…

Could you share any interview links for those interested but not familiar enough to find the info on Google?

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#642

Post by known » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 9:40 AM UTC

No post body was provided.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#643

Post by noptd » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #579

ikrenji wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is really not extremely unlikely. mainly because it happened multiple times previously in china with sars epidemic. there is a precedent https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC416634/

Just so we're clear -- your evidence for lab leak is based on the way samples were handled after the last big zoonotic pandemic in China.

Odd that you think this is some sort of gotcha given that the best predictor of future behavior is, in fact, past behavior.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#644

Post by noptd » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 9:57 AM UTC

bayesian_horse wrote: post #625

cm2012 wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest evidence for lab leak is that no one can find a wild reservoir of covid 19. The Chinese government and the rest of the world has a ton incentive to find a reservoir and havnt.

That's a very weak argument.

How so?

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#645

Post by trompetenaccoun » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 10:03 AM UTC

ayjchan wrote: post #531

This is Alina Chan, one of the co-authors of Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19. I’m going to answer some of the questions that have come up in the comments. 1. Are Chan and Ridley selling a book? Yes, the updated paperback comes out in the US next week: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/viral-matt-ridleyalin... The updated epilogue now discusses three significant new developments since the publication…

Hey Alina,

thank you for doing the work that some others are seemingly afraid to touch! There are many fair-weather scientists, but researchers who consider all credible leads and data, no matter the popularity or political implications of the results, are much rarer.

I have two questions:

1. There were genome sequences removed from the 'Sequence Read Archive', at the request of Chinese scientists.¹ It was later portrayed by US authorities as something that commonly happens. As a layperson I'm curious if that's true and it's a regular occurrence that researchers in another country ask for data to be deleted from the archive. That seems odd.

2. In case you read Chinese, do you know about that Wuhan Institute of Virology job ad where they were looking for a researcher to study coronaviruses in bats, which was posted on their website a few weeks before the outbreak became known? I saw this myself in the very early days of the pandemic, possibly before people in the West were even aware that there was a serious outbreak in Wuhan. At the time I didn't think much of it, but then 2 or 3 days later they first deleted that ad, then the whole board and when I visited today I found their entire website has been completely reworked. Have you seen this and do you know if it was saved anywhere? Not that the job opening itself seemed suspicious and it's well known this sort of research was done there, but I just found it odd they would try to hide it.

¹ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01731-3

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#646

Post by blitzar » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 10:07 AM UTC

harishcs wrote: post #635

cloutchaser wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me the fact that top officials in both the US and China have a likely interest in not investigating lab origins goes a long way to show why this hasn’t been done. And why no other country can get the ball rolling on it, these are the two most powerful countries in the world. IMO it’s likely no one knows where this virus came from right now. but it could well be a lab, but anyone who could potentially investigate t…

I agree. Australia was one of the few countries which called for an investigation of all possibilities and the reaction from China was swift and furious. For most countries, concerns about trade and geopolitics outweigh everything else. The US (and I would add France, which built the BSL-4 lab in Wuhan) has additional reasons not to investigate, as you said.

Not long after Australia pointed the finger at China, it emerged that Australian Government Labs had been doing gain of function research on bats ...

If the bar for proof of guilt is "swift and furious reactions" then by the playground court rules; "whoever smelt it, dealt it" and "whoever said the rhyme did the crime"

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#647

Post by sajrar » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 10:21 AM UTC

lupire wrote: post #525

briandear wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps we could hold those responsible accountable? Especially if it came from research Fauci said wasn’t happening but actually was? Specifically gain of function. Look at how BP got hammered for an oil spill. Why wouldn’t China proportional penalties given that if it were a lab leak it lead to a global economic and health disaster. That it was coincidence that the virus happening near a research facility where the…

It wasn't "Chinese" research. It was Chinese-American research. Same as how the toxic trash USA sent to China for fake recycling was USA trash, and same as how the outsourced manufacturing of "American" products to American specs is Chinese-American manufacturing.

Hard to not conclude that in the US with our complete disinterest in finding out what happened.

The whole thing is so strange. I think back to the odd videos from China at the very start of people collapsing in the street. Only the first videos the world seen of the pandemic and they had nothing to do with reality but no one cares. No big deal.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#648

Post by cryptica » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 10:38 AM UTC

So basically authorities were peddling lies, then after getting caught red-handed, they doubled-down on the lies and tried to gaslight the public and label doubters as conspiracy theorists. How can the government rebuild trust after such behavior? It would be hard to rebuild trust after the lies on their own, but the actual gaslighting is just insane... Governments have been acting like literal psychopaths. Everyone knows you can't trust a psychopath.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#649

Post by chiefalchemist » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 11:20 AM UTC

neaden wrote: post #361

chiefalchemist wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> covered up. This has occurred before in authoritarian regimes before. To be fair, cover ups aren't exclusive to authoritarian regimes. Futhermore, in this case, The West seems to be willingly and shamelessly towing the Communist Party line. Can we add conspiracy to the smell being given off? Science should be obcessed with truth. Geez. Looks like science isn't immune to cover ups and conspiracy either. "What is the…

You know we know exactly who killed JFK and it's not controversial by anyone who seriously looks into it right?

You missed the point. It not about what you think you know. It's about what everyone else believes.

Truth is a function of trust.

That's worth repeating: Truth is a function of trust.

Given the actions of all the Covid-related actors, only a fool would be rolling out the trust red carpet.

You know we know this, right?

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#650

Post by wildmanx » Sat, Jun 25, 2022, 11:21 AM UTC

ayjchan wrote: post #531

This is Alina Chan, one of the co-authors of Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19. I’m going to answer some of the questions that have come up in the comments. 1. Are Chan and Ridley selling a book? Yes, the updated paperback comes out in the US next week: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/viral-matt-ridleyalin... The updated epilogue now discusses three significant new developments since the publication…

> 1. Are Chan and Ridley selling a book?

Hej Alina! Thanks for being open with having an economic interest in this topic being dragged out into the open again.

> It is very surprising to me that these feasible routes of inquiry have not been explored more than 2 years into the pandemic.

It's not too surprising to me. International diplomacy works like this. With a more general picture in mind, specific topics often need to be swept under the rug. Otherwise international relations between any two countries would be constantly in shambles and we'd long have seen WW3, WW4 and WW5.

Note that I'm not advocating for any of this hush-hush. I'd also like to know what happened. But that's just not how international diplomacy works. In this particular case, if WHO wants continued support from China, then you need to carefully balance what and how you criticize. Nobody is helped if China leaves the WHO or next time doesn't even tell anybody that a pandemic is coming for fear of being bullied for this kind of thing. I'm sure the responsible bodies (lab people) will learn their lesson and be more careful going forward. That's the only thing we can hope for nonetheless. It's unrealistic to think China would be punished and all their labs shut down. This won't happen.