641–650 of 698 posts
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That's nice, but was does your personal *feeling* have to do with actual productivity across the economy?
I'm just one data point. Where do we aggregate such data to show knowledge worker productivity? I'd be curious to look at it.
For the tech sector, i think they are.
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Good questions. Can they maintain the high performance culture without large stock compensation? The best option I see following a similar path is TSLA. They currently have 2% of us auto sales. The energy business is tiny, AI/FSD is controversial, but if it works it will be worth a lot.
My question for TSLA bulls is how much of that future is already priced in? I have a hard time believing that it will 10x again.
P/E is 40 currently. Historically very large companies have had P/E between 4-30. So the question is what is Tesla's earnings in 2030 and what will average P/E be across all large companies.
Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.
The reality is that, regardless of time and place, there is always some shit going on. It will be as true 50 (or 1,000) years from now as it was 50 (or 1,000) years ago. > live a normal peaceful life. Being able to blindly live a normal peaceful life, if it really has even ever been possible for anyone, is the exception, not the rule. Most time periods for most people are fraught with risk and conflict. It is the nat…
I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…
"If inflation continues and the fed becomes aggressive with hiking, all assets are dead." This sounds incredibly short-term-oriented and alarmist. Dead is a word to describe the end of something's existence. Market turbulence is not a novel occurrence, nor are unsustainably inflated economies driven by cheap money and speculation.
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The only reason there is a housing shortage is because there is an excess of jobs and money in that place. Which is changing. Houses in sunnyvale went from 750k-1m and impossible to find one for sale to 350k (yes really!) and on the market for years around ‘08.
> an excess of jobs and money And speculation. Bay Area has the highest price to rent ratios in the US. Rent really hasn't changed that much since 2020 and if the betting stops it'd make sense to go back to 2020 prices (which is like a 50% "crash" in parts of the Bay)
I’m sitting on $600k+ cash for a down payment and if I see townhouses correcting I’ll snatch one up immediately. And I am a very small fish compared to the wealth that’s around.
My personal bet is that the Bay Area will just stay at 0% growth until the market recovers.
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> Russia has already been decisively defeated in Ukraine. Ugh, then the war would be over. I think the media creates a large set of biases. Recall, much of the media around this is banned. Here are some channels / people I’d recommend for various insights: - Military and Foreign Affairs network (former American tank operator) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DH6i0fJHLHw - The Duran (two Greeks, former attorneys and part…
The war isn't over because Putin doesn't care what the costs are. It's not sustainable though. Ukraine will keep fighting and the west will keep supporting it. What are Russia's options? So sure, not decisively defeated. It's not like the entire Russian army was wiped out and Ukrainians are marching in Moscow. But still defeated for all intents and purposes and all around loss (world status, material etc.). This has…
My prediction is that they’re going to take the Russian speaking portions of the country as they originally laid out. That’s effective up to the middle of the country. If Ukraine keeps fighting they may take Odessa and leave Ukraine without a sea port.
That’s something like 60-70% of Ukraine’s GDP btw. Russians have already captured 30% of Ukrainian GDP. I don’t think that’s a loss by any measure.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisio...
Wars typically last years, I don’t put much stock into 90 days of conflict. Already 20% of Ukraine is taken, most of its armaments destroyed, Russia has been targeting the west’s attempts to rearm.
> all around loss (world status, material etc
Russia is making more money than ever. They’re also looking to expand BRICS with China. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-it-wants-expa...
> This has got to be the dumbest war ever.
For whom? I don’t think any war is good, by definition it reduces both sides ability to produce and trade (ie hurting everyone).
That said, the Russians have their objectives and clearly thought it worth while. It’s dangerous to underestimate and not understand the motivations of an enemy.
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Exactly, so if inflation increases, RPI will go down all other things held constant.
Personal income also increases with inflation, unless of course you are in a recession, where "all other things held constant".
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This has all happened before. In 1998 Greenspan cut rates due to the Asian financial crisis and worries over Y2K which blew up the dot com bubble. Then they slashed rates down to nearly ZIRP and held them low which blew up the housing and finance bubbles that deflated in 2008. None of this started in 2008. What is different this time is the wage inflation and the unionization drives that we're seeing. The Fed is like…
Not a direct response to the parent post but it had the most keywords in common with my question: >The Fed is likely to hike rates much more aggressively [...] I agree, and they're about to start letting the balance sheet run off too, though at half the rate they accumulated. My question for the wonks here: will it be difficult or expensive to hold rates above, even say, 5% for very long if needed? US national debt i…
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They seem to have lost their initial short term objectives, and the fog of war is real/I can’t tell how good or bad they’re currently doing, but I think regardless of their competency or resolve it’s foolish to underestimate a China-Russia coalition’s resiliency long term, if only due to their much more totalitarian hold over their populace. The lack of easy avenues for a change in leadership even if extremely disast…
There's definitely fog of war but the front lines have barely moved despite Russia bringing all its might to bear. We saw the images of those demolished Russian forces at that ill fated river crossing. We keep seeing evidence of Russia suffering continuous losses. What we don't see much of is the Ukrainian side's losses. Their morale and will seem extremely high though. The Ukrainians have a numerical advantage over…