Live data from Hacker News

Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

axios.com

641–650 of 859 posts

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#641

As someone who does OK, but lives in reality (not the bay area), I feel a revolution coming. I hope it's not a violent one, but who knows at this point. Hopefully it's just a politician with big policy changes. People feel completely disenfranchised. You keep hanging housing over their head but just out of reach like some baby toy, then inflation spikes everything else. What's the point of working even? I don't know…

I don't think the conditions are close to a large scale revolution in the U.S., especially if you mean a violent revolution. First, there is not a high level of discord in society. Upheavals in the 70s were much more significant than those now. Second, most people blame one or the other political party for our problems, rather than the established order generally, making it more likely people will fight within the bo…

> making it more likely people will fight within the bounds of the existing political system.

You are aware there was a violent disruption to the peaceful transfer of power last year, right? Since then, predicated on lies, partisans have changed the system to give political parties full control of election results; and the January 6th Committee has essentially uncovered and extensive coup plot that spans the White House, DOJ, and DoD.

We are so far outside of the bounds of the system as we know it that it’s scary people don’t recognize it yet.

EDIT: I'm going to expand upon this because of the dead comment to me, which calls Jan 6 a "riot". It's clear that there is an effort afoot to minimize the events of Jan 6. This needs to end asap because of what the Jan 6 Committee is uncovering.

Jan 6 was not a riot, it was the last stage of a coup plot that started at least the day of the election, before the final results had even been tallied. It's detailed most clearly in the Eastman Memo, authored by John Eastman [0]. The coup plot spanned the White House, Department of Defense, Department of Justice, state legislatures, various members of Congress and the Senate, various lawyers, and of course various paramilitary groups.

The plan was:

1) Pence must declare Arizona invalid when counting certificates of the vote. Specifically Arizona because of the closest states, it comes first alphabetically, and so is counted the soonest.

2) Democrats object, so the matter is taken to the House

3) Voting is done by State Delegation according to the Constitution. Republicans control a majority of delegations, so they would vote in Trump, thus ending democracy in America.

The problem with this plan was that there was no reason to reject any certificate. There was no fraud on the scale Trump claimed. So they tried to litigate, but that failed because they couldn't prove their allegations. Then they tried to strong-arm state election officials by threatening them with jailtime if they didn't manufacture fraudulent votes. That failed as well. They also tried to convince friendly Republican state legislatures to send an alternate slate of electors. That failed as well. They even went so far as to put pressure on state elections boards and county elections officials. This came in the form of threats and intimidation. Trump put pressure on AG Bill Barr to declare the results suspicious but Barr did the opposite, claimed there was no proof of fraud, and he quit because he was smart enough to realize what was going on.

All of this failed because people were just doing their job of running elections in an apolitical matter.

After those efforts, Pence was still wavering on whether to declare Arizona invalid. He needed more pretext so Trump leaned on the Justice department. No one there would open the demanded pretextual investigation except Jeffrey Clark , who was several rungs down the order of succession for acting AG after Barr left. Trump wanted to make him acting AG to open the investigation, but essentially every senior member of the DOJ threatened to quit if he did that, thus ruining the pretext of the investigation, so that failed.

So how do you execute the Eastman memo without Pence? Disrupt the proceedings. The Jan 6. counting of electoral votes is the last stop in the Presidential selection process. If you delay that, you're in extraconstitutional territory. Think of it like a buffer overflow. You're in undefined space where the rules are made by those in power. And guess who had power at the time?

Thus the plan became to hold the Capitol as long as possible in the event that Pence failed to do what Trump wanted. The plan was to generate a great crowd at the ellipse, whip them to a frenzy, point them at the capitol, and if Pence certified Arizona, to then call him out on twitter. Within the crowd they threaded several paramilitary groups including the Prod Boys, Oath Keepers, and 3%ers. While the vast majority of people were not there with any specific goal, there were groups there with the premeditated intent of breaching and occupying the Capitol. But to penetrate all of the security, they needed a mob. You can see these paramilitary groups slithering through the riot crowd like a snake through water in many of the videos from that day. They move in formation and came prepared with uniforms and equipment. Their goal was not to kill anyone, but it was to occupy the capitol for as long as possible. That's why they didn't come with an arsenal, because they knew as soon as the guns come out on one side, they come out on the other side.

To hold the Capitol for as long as possible, they would have to delay the National Guard from showing up. Thus, right after the election when Sec. Esper refused to call the election fraudulent, he was fired and replaced (essentially) with a Trump loyalist Kash Patel. That's why you keep hearing the phrase 187 minutes from the Jan 6 Committee. Because for 3 hours almost, Kash Patel did nothing as far as sending the National Guard, and he did nothing because he was ordered to do nothing (or as it may be more likely, wasn't ordered to do anything, despite urgent need, a dereliction of duty).

Why? What were they trying to do during this time. Well:

1) they were seeing how bad it was going to get. The worse it gets, the better a justification for extraordinary uses of power.

2) They were continuing to lean on state legislatures during this time to send alternate slates of electors. Giuliani and Sen. Mo Brooks were texting at the time, with Rudy telling him to stall as long as possible.

3) They were waiting for Pence to evacuate the building, but he refused.

Ultimately this part of the plan failed because of sheer luck. If any hostages were taken, it probably would have worked. This is why many want Officer Goodman as Time person of the year, because he singlehandedly goaded the mob away from the Senate chambers where he knew many members were hiding.

--

Now take a step back. What have I just described? I've detailed the efforts of a sitting President to use his powers as President to fraudulently remain in power despite an opponent being duly elected under the system in place. That's a literal autocoup. That's not a mere riot. That's how democracies die. If that plan had worked, that's the end of Constitutional order in America.

So how does this plan work in the future? Well:

1) make voting harder. Georgia flipped blue this year because there was surge of minority support in a few key counties by just enough votes. Make voting harder in just those counties, and next time maybe it won't flip by just enough votes. These efforts have been passed into law.

2) Spread FUD about voting. This justifies unbounded skepticism of any election result, no matter how above board. This has been going on for a year and now a large portion of our country believe there was fraud in the 2020 election.

3) Take partisan control of state elections. A lot of the above could have been avoided if Georgia had just "found" missing votes like Trump had asked in the first place. Or if Barr had concluded there was basis for an investigation. Or if state legislatures had just "decided" to send electors they preferred as opposed to ones the voters preferred. For example, Fulton County, which saw no fraud and which has been under non-partisan control forever, is now under partisan Republican control by people who are very sure there was fraud in the 2020 election, even though they can't identify any in Fulton County. But they are there to make sure there is never any fraud again. Which we all need to take to mean that they are there to make sure that a Democrat never wins Georgia again in a close decision. There's no other way to interpret this effort.

Now you can call any results fraudulent, send any electors you want to the counting of the certificates, and leave it up to the Supreme Court to decide. Fingers crossed!

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_memorandums

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#642
post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Glad this was the top comment. Wages have not kept up with cost of living for 50 years in the US. We need to stop pretending flat wages are some modern problem of inflation, and we need to stop pretending inflation is some problem caused by the pandemic.

Is it not a problem? Wages rose substantially in the years between WWII and the 1970s but isn't that the actual aberration?

But what if you compare it to GDP? Production per capita has increased, yet the workers wages have not. I tend to think the “aberration” was due to the increase of private union membership, which has decreased since the 1980s.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My grandparents had my mom at 17 in 1965, were disowned by their parents, and bought a house at 19 on a single carpenter's apprentice salary. They bought a new car a couple years later. My grandmother only started working part-time ~1980 as things started getting harder to afford on a single salary. I think about this a lot because even with two people working full time we couldn't afford a house (in the same city) u…

Carpenter's apprentices look to make around double the federal minimum wage today, which checks out that they could afford a house in the mid 60s. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29593398

Alright but I've been making quadruple the federal minimum wage...

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you summarize? I don't want to watch this entire video right now even though it seems interesting.

Democracy relies on people being able to vote for what they think is right; with privacy. We removed senators right to vote for the right things in private in ~1970. After this things have gotten very bad in the US–policy wise. Polarization. Extreme lobbing. Partisanship. Fiscal policies that only favor the rich. See this: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com All of this happened after we changed the rules in Congress where…

The Average American Has No Influence on Public Policy (Princeton study)

https://medium.com/k-street/the-average-american-has-no-infl...

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#645
post #615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it is. Why should the minimum wage not provide a sufficiently secure life for the worker? I say this all the time: if you can't afford to pay your workers a living wage you can't afford to be in business .

Because minimum wage job is supposed to be temporary. You do it right after high school, for couple years, before you decide on what you want your "real" job to be. Or you do it part time to pay your expenses while attending college. No minimum wage work should be something you do your whole life.

I wonder: what's the average age of a worker whose wages would increase if the federal minimum wage increased to $15/hr? There's "supposed" and then there's what's actually happening. I suspect most people in those jobs are not the people you're saying should be doing them.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#646

Real wages have been flat since the 1970s ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... ). "Okay, so people's living standards are about the same since 1970?" Not even close. The problem with inflation is that its calculation is fraught with all kinds of selective weighting, bias, and politics. Take a look at the relative differences between the things which have decreased and increased in cost in…

Glad this was the top comment. Wages have not kept up with cost of living for 50 years in the US. We need to stop pretending flat wages are some modern problem of inflation, and we need to stop pretending inflation is some problem caused by the pandemic.

The other side of this to remember is that highly compensated employees are still subjects to this reality.

The numbers themselves dont actually matter. It doesnt matter if highly compensated to you means $88k or $150k annual compensation, $450k or $750k.

If a single earner cant buy a home outright in 5 years in that area, then the compensation isn't high enough compared to when wages were keeping up. There was a housing shortage in the 1970s too, so the supply side isnt a worthwhile deflection.

The oppression contest and olympics from the masses earning way less isn't really useful because that just conveniently perpetuates the reality.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#647
post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because both parties are owned by oligarchs who would lose money if that happened. Minimum wage hikes chew through profits and profits are pretty much the #1 legislative priority because that's the primary concern of those doing the campaign financing. Same reason gun control wont happen no matter how many people get killed - ultimately its because gun manufacturers would lose money. American politics is the art of t…

You forgot to mention that the left is mostly funded by anti-gun interests. That is where the majority of gun control legislation comes from. If money from Bloomberg or Soros helps you win, you push gun control in return. I also think trying to pin the 'culture war' on gun companies is bizarre. Are you from the US? Your take on this seems like something you would see on MSNBC.

> You forgot to mention that the left is mostly funded by anti-gun interests.

It’s...not.

> If money from Bloomberg or Soros helps you win

Neither Soros nor especially Bloomberg are or especially fund the left; Bloomberg is center-right, Soros is, frankly incoherent; while, yes right-wing anti-Semitic conspiracy theories focus on his funding of organizations to the left of the Republican platform, among the organizations he funds are ones like Cru, the organization known as “Campus Crusade for Christ” before its recent rebrand.

(The Democratic Party is a center-right to center-left coalition party, where dominant power is held by the center-right, neoliberal corporate capitalist faction.)

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that's truly the case then they would pay the same salary regardless of location. Do they? A lot of big employers have proudly said no, they'd pay remote workers less if they're in cheaper locations.

Developers in low cost of living regions demand less money, so they're paid less. Sounds like Google is doing exactly what they said.

I'm not sure that's currently the case, what with the move to long term remote work. Do you have data showing workers demanding less pay after moving to cheaper areas while retaining the same position in the same organization?

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maps, and the ability to read them. You basically need another passenger with you otherwise you'll have to do a lot of stops. I'd even say its a bit risky to drive like that. > Phones, you know good old land lines So you are saying having a high def video call with my brother living across the world, for free, is just like calling him in the 60s? It used to be crazy expensive to call abroad. And you couldn't see! >…

So many misunderstandings in here, probably because you're too young to have done any of these things. (Source: I am pushing 50.) Driving with maps doesn't require another passenger or a lot of stops, generally. You plan your route with the map before starting out, and if necessary write the turns on a piece of note paper. You may need to stop and consult the map if you miss a turn. I'll grant that GPS is more conven…

Unfamiliar cities could certainly be more challenging to drive around prior to GPS, you got lost more often, and yes you often needed to have a paper map. It took me a while before I really developed a decent mental map for driving around the Boston area. But I find people seemingly arguing that travel to unfamiliar places was this daunting task absent GPS availability rather amusing.

For photos I shot B&W (which I printed selectively) and then slides. But most people just took their roll of print film to the pharmacy or whatever and got a stack of 3 1/2" x 5" color prints back.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#650
post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s part of it. It’s similar to China from the 90’s to the 2020’s. Likely Chinese will not see real wages go up at the same rate in the 2039’s as they did the previous decades. That said, what’s eating real wage growth is outsourcing. It’s simple. If I can build a fridge by paying workers in China or Mexico $2/hr vs paying a US worker $22/hr in a manufactury plant, my competition will eventually lose market share…

In the post war period the US was manufacturing goods for not just domestic use, but for the entire world. Pretty much all industrial capability was here in that period, so foreigners were forced to buy American goods. Those days are over and are never coming back. Most countries have their own industrial base now. There will never again be american employment in manufacturing like there was in the post war period, e…

It’s not only manufacturing though. And we don’t have to export to the world. We just need to support our own manufacturing and our own service workers.

My school janitors used to be able to send their kids to college and afford a humble house. Retail store clerks (Married with Children). All that is now cheap labor --you can't expect to pay a mortgage and send kids to college/uni. You may be able to afford the cheap apartment and beer --you'll probably end up with some addiction, i nthat situation.

These days that janitor is farmed out to some company that hires either cheap foreign labor or sometimes illegal labor. We see this in chicken processing plants too. And people wonder why the middle class is hollowed out. And why black and white working poor are sick and tired or corporate antics.

Post reply on HN