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Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

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Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#641

Post by whimsicalism »

cat_plus_plus wrote: post #565
whimsicalism wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective. China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible. I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head. The fact that we failed to do the same…

At the cost of a lockdown for everyone we could have offered targeted protection to the most vulnerable who wanted to avail themselves of it: - Work from home options or in the worst case unemployment benefits for duration of the pandemic - Reimbursement for food/goods delivery fees - N95 masks and training on fitting them properly - Hotel/AirBNB rooms as an alternative to congregate living - Small gated communities…

> hina caused every single COVID death in the world, whether through labs or wet markets, so I wouldn't sing praises of authoritarian governments.

> in the long term their society would be better for it

No, I think successful suppression was both shown to be very possible and the better option. Political failure means that millions have already died, and more will follow. Of course, suppression is a no-go now, I'm not denying that.

> China caused every single COVID death in the world, whether through labs or wet markets, so I wouldn't sing praises of authoritarian governments.

It's a nation of 1.2 billion, many new viruses are bound to originate there. I think it is disingenuous to blame the governance of China for the outbreak.

We all know how our own government works. Are we honestly supposed to believe if this outbreak had originated domestically that we would have reacted fast enough to contain it? We couldn't even avert it when we had multiple months advance warning, China controlled an active infection within their own borders and has successfully suppressed a potential pandemic in the past (SARS). I don't think we've demonstrated any capacity to do the same.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#642

Post by aemreunal »

cat_plus_plus wrote: post #356

How about the biggest dishonesty - lack of admission that not everyone is at the same risk and that lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society? Young children are not getting critical development years back. Healthy 20 somethings only have limited time to date, party and have fun before being saddled with adult responsibilities forever. Most of shattered local businesses ar…

> Young children are not getting critical development years back.

This sentence alone is true, but it misses the fact that a) young children suffer from this disease too, b) these young children live with older people that are at more at risk, hence they can bring something back from their schools that may cost the lives of their parents (I don't think losing your parents when you're a kid is great for your development), and c) there's always the risk of more deadly variants emerging due to more transmission.

> [...] individuals should have a role in deciding what's right for them.

For matters that only concern them, yes. For matters of public health, where you can transmit something to others without their consent and potentially cause their death or long-term disability, no, you don't have that luxury. None of us do. Same reason why a single nation can't/shouldn't just pollute all the seas and cause tons of greenhouse gas emissions and kill the world for everyone. We may not like it but we [have to] live together and being in a society means looking out for each other.

You are free to not wear a mask or party by yourself, in your house, away from society.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#643

Post by whimsicalism »

spookthesunset wrote: post #516
detaro wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people still trot out “4% kill rate” Which health authority or public health expert is claiming that today and hasn't shared updates with better data (=good news)? Yes, some people still bring that, but that's not because evil experts hide the true data from them.

The “experts” don’t say “4%” but they also don’t even bother to give an actual IFR. Why haven’t they? We’ve known it for quite some time.

> IFR. Why haven’t they? We’ve known it for quite some time.

Well, it's not constant. Vaccination rates have a big impact.

And honestly, what "experts" are you even talking about? Of course the numbers are out there.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#644

Post by jimkleiber »

r3trohack3r wrote: post #239
colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

> Now we've got a huge swath of US citizens that will never take the vaccine I suspect it's more than just "the vaccine" (assuming "the" refers to the covid vaccines); it's an overall regression in the trust of health officials that will take decades to rebuild. We had a pretty well built system of trust for health officials. Everything from a standard set of vaccines being a requirement at schools to CDC guidance be…

I think what frustrates me is not that we would doubt the trustworthiness of these institutions, I think it's a pretty common ebb and flow of trust, but how so many people seem to try to convince so many other people to distrust these institutions. The "they're lying to you, they're gonna take everything from you" rhetoric which doesn't necessarily create the doubt or fear but seems to amplify it, driving society further apart.

In a way, I agree a lot with the original article in that one of the best ways to flip the switch and rebuild trust is to lead with trust...of people's intentions and abilities.

This year has challenged me and I think so many of us in how to not only trust our institutions but our friends, neighbors, and family. I hope that we recognize it's ok to doubt and that most of us have no idea what we're doing, we're trying our best to get by, including those who frustrated me with their arguments to distrust others.

It may be a long road and yet, super clichély, it starts with some of us taking the first step.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#645

Post by whimsicalism »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #614
whimsicalism wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yet sick Chinese people were free to spread over the world for months with no response except down-playing it. They practiced the opposite of the precautionary principle and horrendous risk management. At what point did the spread in the US stop being driven by sick Chinese people? I don't know the answer, but my impression was pretty darn early - far before politicians were taking the virus seriously as a policy i…

> At what point did the spread in the US stop being driven by sick Chinese people? After the first initial cases (that could be tracked directly to travel from China; e.g. that one guy in Snohomish county in the Seattle area), it was already spreading on its own by then.

Yeah if that's the case, the GP seems dumb.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#646

Post by nuerow »

throw_nbvc1234 wrote: post #561
wolverine876 wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will listen to a reasonable, nuanced discussion. They won't listen to someone who hates them. The victim argument is standard rhetoric, but they can choose to do what they want. For one thing, I haven't seen much hate at all. Could you give examples of it on a significant scale? Some leaders expressing hate? Mostly, I see resignation.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/

If anything, the Herman Cain Award is a place to vent frustration about the wave of reckless and irresponsible behavior perpetrated by a largely uninformed/disinformed segment of the population which happens to also be highly vocal and even militant regarding their personal ill-informed beliefs.

The Herman Cain Award focuses mainly on reporting cases of individuals who are eggregiously contrarian and even hostile in their self-righteous militance opposing basic health and safety measures who end up falling victims of their own actions.

If anything, the subreddit documents causes and effects, and showcases the expected risks and consequences of this sort of attitude.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#647

Post by wesleywt »

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

I think you got this wrong. It was vague and inconsistent messaging from a leader who was skeptical of the science. Then made the pandemic into a personal attack on him. Now his followers will not take the vaccine.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#648

Post by clairity »

Natsu wrote: post #624
clairity wrote: post #604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "...I could easily kill grandma..." see, there's the hyperbole that makes you lose credibility. ~95% of those 65 and older in the US are vaccinated. visiting with grandma (or any family, for that matter) is an instance where wearing a mask (and certainly a number of other potential mitigations) could make a difference, so use your brain to make that assessment, not some brainless heuristic infringed upon you by an…

> ~95% of those 65 and older in the US are vaccinated My grandmother can't vaccinate for medical reasons and I have other specific health reasons, including past issues with the flu, breathing troubles, general poor health, and the fact that she's 100, all give me reason to believe that she has special risk factors. The place she is at has had Covid deaths and there are others of similar age with similar risk profile…

this isn't about your grandma (may she live many more years), but the sanctimoniousness (and misguidedness) of your comments.

your chance of death from covid is likely (much) less than 0.2%, an average that's disproportionately (and unfortunately) inflated by the elderly and unhealthy. the elderly and unhealthy are the folks who we should encourage (but not force) to get vaccinated because of the elevated risk. everyone else can, and should be allowed to, make their own risk-aware decision.

> "and I do wear a mask indoors or when mandated..."

and therein lies the crux of my critique. you've outsourced your health decisions to politicians/bureaucrats more interested in their own skin than yours, and yet, make confident claims about the correctness of those decisions. if you're wearing masks as mandated, but not around friends and family (i.e., social situations where you're spitting at each other in close proximity), you're just performing safety theater. and factory workers don't need your sympathy or your mask mandate, since most are distanced enough from each other that a mask literally does nothing more for their safety.

the disinformation you seem to have internalized is why this is all so frustrating, and why we need to route around the mediopolitical gatekeepers trying to drown out the 'hard truths' with their relentless deluge of crafted messaging.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#649

Post by stickfigure »

nuerow wrote: post #634
clairity wrote: post #604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "...I could easily kill grandma..." see, there's the hyperbole that makes you lose credibility. ~95% of those 65 and older in the US are vaccinated. visiting with grandma (or any family, for that matter) is an instance where wearing a mask (and certainly a number of other potential mitigations) could make a difference, so use your brain to make that assessment, not some brainless heuristic infringed upon you by an…

> see, there's the hyperbole that makes you lose credibility. It is not a hyperbole, and it saddens me to hear this level of ignorance in this forum. The COVID-19 mortality rate for the age >65 is over 20%. That's over 1 death per 5 infections. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pan... > ~95% of those 65 and older in the US are vaccinated. No, not quite. It is estimated that 95% of the total US…

The CDC says that the covid IFR for the 65+ cohort is 9%, not 20%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

> it saddens me to hear this level of ignorance in this forum

Ahem.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#650

Post by acrobatsunfish »

oceanghost wrote: post #433
ssully wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's also worth pointing out that even with them saying masks aren't effective for the public, there was still a run on masks. I don't have the exact date, but when I looked for n95's at my local hardware store in March 2020, they were all gone and this was definitely before we were told to wear masks. And soon after we started getting stories about hospitals running low on PPE. I am not saying what the right…

Not just masks, anything that was vaguely safety related. I had to stop resin 3d printing because I couldn't get: * Solvents-- IPA, methylated spirits etc. * Nitrile/Latex Gloves * Respirators (the kind used for painting)

Yeah I didn't buy a resin printer early bird special because I couldn't get masks gloves or isopropyl
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