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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

641–650 of 720 posts

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#641
post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a positive feedback loop, not a negative feedback loop. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback .

It’s negative WRT the chip production rate.

No, there is a shortage, leading to a shortage, leading to a shortage, ...

If it was negative feedback, the "error" (shortage in production) would lead to an error cancelling signal, and therefore an increase in production. Positive feedback has error leading to larger error, shortage leading to more shortage.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Building it is one thing. Making it operational without importing talent and running it profitably is another. Taiwan has some of the best fab engineers who work at US minimum wage salaries. Of course you can pull them away with higher pay like China is doing, but that means profitability will likely go for a toss.

dont worry - we print USD locally

So few people realize the untapped, and unique, power this provides the US.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#643
post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just subsidize it. I'm not asking for the Fab Czar, I'm asking for the NSF, DARPA, and national subsidies for it. Accelerated permitting, tax breaks, tarif support, state vs national investments, accelerated green cards for key personnel, and price breaks for a "buy US Chips" initiative for the first 5 years until things get serious and exports ramp up. I'm spitballing over morning coffee, but come on, this seems obv…

Will this do? https://www.eetimes.com/biden-ups-ante-to-50-billion-for-chi...

We are lucky to have a Dem in office so we at least get something vs just spinning our wheels. Who knows, the next republican might just tank this strategy in the long run anyway.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab. Talk to Intel and ask them why we've fallen behind. Do any VCs want to fund a direct Intel competitor? I doubt it. Making chips seems to be quite a bit more complicated than making and launching rockets, I don't think even Elon Musk could do it.

The 18F group is more than capable: https://github.com/18F

They are probably referring to the Obamacare initial rollout which predates 18F right?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#645
post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, those are all blowback of subsidies. But they are also side effects of food abundance. The downsides of food shortage seems much worse. Maybe there’s an argument that we’ve moved passed the era of food scarcity when those policies were enacted and they should be modified. But I think a blanket claim that food subsidies are an inherent bad policy misses their point.

That blanket claim was never made. The made claim was that the ineptitude and mishandling of agricultural subsidies is reason to reconsider calling for government involvement in the chip shortage.

This is a bit of a confusing take if you're using ag subsidies as evidence to keep the govt out of chip manufacturing but now denying that the subsidies aren't bad.

>The nightmarish results of agricultural subsidies in the US is an excellent reason to not involve the government

This sure sounds like you think it's a claim of subsidies being bad policy.

>The made claim was that the ineptitude and mishandling of agricultural subsidies is reason to reconsider

How do you combine the view that "ag subsidies aren't bad" with "the government shouldn't be in the business of managing subsidies" when the definition of subsidy involves the government? At first take, this comes across as back-peddling to avoid dogmatic cognitive dissonance.

But I'll be generous and assume you did not mean that ag subsidies are bad in and of themselves, but the way they are handled is poor. So what do think is a more proper way to handle them? Should the focus be on different products? If so, which ones?

The point has already been made that ag subsidies are operating as intended and the downsides you refer to are downsides of abundance. I have a feeling that most people who have actually lived with food scarcity would find them preferable to the actual "nightmarish results" of too little food.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A shortage is not inflation

Supply and demand change is what increases or decreases costs. If demand don't adapt, there will be inflation to force it to adapt :)

'Inflation' is not the price increase of a single thing to demand/supply.

Inflation is the systemic increase in all costs of what a household would buy as money itself become less valuable.

Prices 'inflating' on a single product because there's a shortage of... base materials or whatever is not inflation as an economic term.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just incompetent presidents, it's incompetent politicians at every level.

That's not a bug, it's a feature. Politicians like MTG and Boebert are part of the system just to cheapen it. The crazier they are, the more off-tilt they are, the better the strategy works, the more it weakens the average Americans faith in the system. This strategy started with Trump, but it's started permeating every level of politics. The more wild they act, the more they can insist that the other side is being j…

It started with Reagan. People just didn't realize that it was the boiling frog scenario. It won't end with MTG and Boebert.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#648
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but from what I understand, it won't be the most advanced plant making the smallest feature sizes, so it's not like Apple is going to be utilizing that plant (maybe for ancillary chips, but not main processor). Understandably, TSMC keeps a tight reign on their top-tier production methods, which is their reason for being #1. It's also 3 years away from opening in AZ (2024). Then they have to fine tune the equipme…

And the machines they’re going to be running take years to build. And they have to be built custom for each site. Not just for each site, but also each location within the site. Just moving a machine a couple of feet can cause massive delays as they have to effectively rebuild the machine for the new location. ASML has engineers who go out and spend months or a year or more, just taking various measurements of the lo…

Seems like long term the human race is going to lose this ability if something serious is not done to reduce the complexity of building these things. This pandemic has shown that everything is super fragile and with Climate Change on the horizon I cannot believe they decided to build this damn thing in Arizona of all places. Maybe the collapse people were right and we should be working on CollapseOS

[1]: https://collapseos.org/

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government can't make a website, let alone a chip fab. Talk to Intel and ask them why we've fallen behind. Do any VCs want to fund a direct Intel competitor? I doubt it. Making chips seems to be quite a bit more complicated than making and launching rockets, I don't think even Elon Musk could do it.

Just subsidize it. I'm not asking for the Fab Czar, I'm asking for the NSF, DARPA, and national subsidies for it. Accelerated permitting, tax breaks, tarif support, state vs national investments, accelerated green cards for key personnel, and price breaks for a "buy US Chips" initiative for the first 5 years until things get serious and exports ramp up. I'm spitballing over morning coffee, but come on, this seems obv…

Why do you keep using Giga $ instead of $3.5bn?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#650

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

How much would it cost to set up TSMC inside US borders? One president cycle? 4 F-35s? One SLS? A nuclear submarine? According to this page, sorting by cost, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... the most expensive fab is 33 Giga$. TSMC is 17G$. pennies on the dollar in our 1-3Trillion infrastructure bill. Make america fab again. EDIT: it appears this is in the 2T infrastructure bill. https:…

Reuters previously reported that TSMC plans to build as many as six factories at the Arizona site over a 10- to 15-year span. https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-construction-ha...
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