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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#641

Post by digitaltrees »

thwythwy wrote: post #617
dragontamer wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

The second sentence in your post is so alarmingly inappropriate that I can't focus on anything else.

Why is it offensive. What is the word for the color black in Spanish? Does the color black have a negative connotation? Or did racist cultural attitudes turn what was a neutral term in to a highly charged weapon of oppression.

I think the OPs point was “deep state” has a deliberate, highly charged, negative connotation.

Don’t conflate the horrible reality of racism with the historical origin of a racial insult. The OP is merely using it as an example to illustrate how terms acquire meaning through time and social norms. Not excuse their existence.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#642

Post by paganel »

mlindner wrote: post #612
paganel wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US troops have been in Europe for a long time. They haven't been in Romania, which is, like I said, a stone-throw away from Russia. And they started showing up after the start of the conflict in Ukraine. > Assuming you're talking about the US pulling out of the INF treaty, that's not really a meaningful change. The Russians and various other countries were already largely ignoring it. That's not my understanding of…

> They haven't been in Romania, which is, like I said, a stone-throw away from Russia. And they started showing up after the start of the conflict in Ukraine. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/romania.htm They have been, in fact.

Not on the actual highways and not me having to surpass US military convoys more than once. Yeah, pre-2014 I used to see US soldiers quite often at the Bucharest international airport, they were on or off their trips to either Iraq or Afghanistan (we’re talking mostly 2007-2010) but sure as hell there weren’t US soldiers in the actual Romanian crop fields, like in here [1] . But feel free to hit me with Internet links, while I’m talking about stuff happening a hour drive’s away from where I’m writing this comment. And if it matters those US soldiers shouldn’t have ended up in those grain fields, it was an error of communication. In any case, I told my parents that were they to see US armed vehicles in their field they should just let them pass, no reason to make a fuss.

https://youtu.be/LGoTu36HDVs

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#643

Post by quotemstr »

Ericson2314 wrote: post #624
quotemstr wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The great depression was after one of those wars. I think you can make a case that the global economic and social excesses of the 1920s led to a hard crash, the rise of aggressive ideological movements, and, eventually, the second world war. The first world war was something else entirely, the last gasp of the old "Concert of Europe" balance of power stuff. After the first world war, the world was a completely differ…

The 20s weren't great economically in Europe. In Germany the 30s were better economically I'm afraid to say.

Weimar Germany had a bout of hyperinflation early on, but between 1924 and 1929, the country was stable and prosperous.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#644

Post by leereeves »

sarchertech wrote: post #631
leereeves wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't have it both ways; those 6 bankruptcies are just properties too. So with your wording you should say Trump owned 500 properties and 6 of them lost money. And like any real estate investor, when the properties lost money, Trump gave those 6 properties to the creditors. But I think my wording is more accurate. Your friend's rental properties may not be individual businesses, but Trump Tower or the Taj Mahal a…

Trump Tower and Taj Mahal are real businesses. But most of trumps "businesses" aren't. They are just shell companies to hold assets. The vast majority of his businesses have no customers, and no regular income. They aren't intended to make a profit--they're intended to protect an asset from the bankruptcy of his real businesses. There was never any chance that they would need to go bankrupt, so he gets no credit for…

> The vast majority of his businesses have no customers, and no regular income.

Where do you get this? Is this just more BS with no evidence, like the money laundering accusation?

I haven't seen a complete list, but even Wikipedia has a list with a lot of businesses:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization

> they're intended to protect an asset from the bankruptcy of his real businesses

Even if you were right about Trump's businesses, corporations don't work like that. The stock can be taken in bankruptcy so they don't protect assets inside the corp from bankruptcy of the holder. They only protect assets outside the corp from bankruptcy of the corp.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#645

Post by legacynl »

lowdose wrote: post #536
vinay427 wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "real" N-word is also similar to or identical to today's equivalents in Germanic languages (e.g. German, Dutch).

Also in Dutch you can't use the equivalent anymore. People of color take offense by it.

They have always taken offense to it, we just used to not care.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#646

Post by [deleted] »

tunesmith wrote: post #432
papito wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell me about it. I offloaded most of my 401K into Fidelity long-term bond fund, and it's up 20% for the year.

At some point I have to better understand the weird relationship between bonds and bond funds. If rates are low then bonds are a low performing investment, but apparently bond funds go up.

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#647

Post by [deleted] »

dragontamer wrote: post #389
ben_jones wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#648

Post by suyash »

tlogan wrote: post #116
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…

There is an old adage "When the US Sneezes, the world catches cold" so recession was hit other countries specially China more badly than the US.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#649

Post by sergius »

chronic849a wrote: post #340
mwfunk wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

> it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. Bay area engineer here. Did Google for a few years, did a B2B startup, acquired by FANG, now lead a team of 30. Good relationships with family and physically fit. I voted for Trump. Statistically, I'm not dumb.

I've noticed that that a few acquaintances with the same trend... they like to take risks and optimize locally rather than globally. Not dumb but just narrow focused like most of us in technical areas.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#650

Post by ashelmire »

koolba wrote: post #581
ashelmire wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a term meant to slander professionals and imply that we should constantly rotate in the current political favorites into positions for which they are not qualified.

Alternatively we should allow career professionals to act as a dampener on the will of the people when it does not align with their own views.

What exactly are you asserting? I get that you're reiterating the Trump talking point about "Deep State" nonsense, but the majority of people in this nation have voted for Democratic candidates in the last several elections, including both 2016 and 2018. If anything, the electoral college and gerrymandering are what dampen the will of the people.
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