Wow, here are solutions to 10 problems that we spent millions of dollars on out of the 100s/1000s of other problems that we tried and failed to solve.
Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
631–640 of 1001 posts
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#632People argue whether we are at y-5, y, or y+5, meanwhile we seem to be on a y=2^x exponential that keeps delivering more and more impressive results. The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn, but I’ve noticed Fable to be quite a big step up there. How about politics? Will we develop new ways to let…
Sigmoidal, not exponential. It would be insane to assume an exponential curve
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#633Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn, isn't it clearly split between verifiable not verifiable ? what is interesting about that question.
I do not think it is so clear. Programming has verifiable and non-verifiable aspects. Competitive programming, passing tests, and performance can all be verified. But translating English requirements into actual software, software architecture, taste, or UI design cannot. And yet over the last couple years we’ve seen huge lifts in all of these areas, not just the verifiable ones. Verifiable areas I think are clearly…
> we’ve seen huge lifts in all of these areas, not just the verifiable ones.
most gains are still coming from data. isnt that supposed to 'run out' though?
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#634Looking at this thread, I can see that a lot of technical people have ambivalent to negative feelings towards AI, but with each new generation, I become more and more convinced that they're missing out on something interesting. It is indeed true that all models are, at their core, predictors of what occurs next in a sequence. But I think it's worth exploring the implication of what that means. Because when fed tiny p…
> I can see that a lot of technical people have ambivalent to negative feelings towards AI
My negative feelings towards AI are about energy use and inequalities, that kind of stuff. It undeniably works well, but whether or not it is better for society or the planet is a lot less clear.
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#635Earlier quoted context omitted.
Proof? In my experience modern models are better at all tasks than models from two years ago, especially complex multi-step tasks.
you are working on coding. they are working on things like "creative writing" remember that gpt 4o was popular among those who had ai as a romantic partnet?
gpt4o & associated parasociality is considered an alignment failure and is actively trained out of the model, so that is a terrible example of regression
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#636Earlier quoted context omitted.
From what I understand all of them have Lean proofs/certificates thus are basically 100% proven without a doubt.
We recently saw that lean itself isnt proven correct. Its not likely but i wouldnt call it verified if its only verified in lean https://x.com/gro_tsen/status/2082483878480977959
Between a lean proof, and a peer reviewed paper, the former is a lot less likely to be mistaken...
Nothing is perfect.
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#637Earlier quoted context omitted.
People will be broken out of their denial by actual economic growth. That's what this is all meant to be for... I think we might start seeing some surprising numbers.
Would something like "services deflation" even show up in the numbers? That's what I'd expect to happen first
deflation will just be inflated away, always
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#638People argue whether we are at y-5, y, or y+5, meanwhile we seem to be on a y=2^x exponential that keeps delivering more and more impressive results. The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn, but I’ve noticed Fable to be quite a big step up there. How about politics? Will we develop new ways to let…
> The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn, isn't it clearly split between verifiable not verifiable ? what is interesting about that question.
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Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#639Earlier quoted context omitted.
"AI" has limits in that it cannot invent knowledge, it can only distill and search for patterns in existing knowledge not sure how many will get this reference but "AI" for science and math is like super-shoes for runners at first we are blown away by the impossible improvements including sub-2-hour realworld marathon and every other PR/CR/WR is dialed down but then the improvements slow and reach a stall point becau…
How do humans "invent knowledge"? Is your argument that the answer to these questions already existed in the training set? Why didn't any human recognize that before?
humans discover a lot of things by trial and error (aka what I meant by "invent knowledge")
basically everything Benjamin Franklin did was trial and error because no-one understood what electricity was in the slightest
almost everything Edison did was trial and error too, he had his lab try thousands of materials for his long lasting lightbulb filament
even the most advanced "AI" today is just machine-learning going through everything already known trying to piece together previously discovered facts, admittedly at levels and detail impossible by human hands
but that means there are limits and it's not really "AI"
Re: Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
#640Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the near term handling the transition. Jobs will be lost, careers ended, people won’t be able to reskill quickly enough. At the same time AI is an enormous opportunity to uplift living standards, but nobody has the logistics of this figured out. We need to figure out how to restructure the global economy. How does UBI work internationally, if the AI companies are taking revenue in the US? What’s the tax base for i…
I don't understand why this got downvotes - simply extrapolating current trends leads to the need to answer all of these questions. My own $0.02 on the economics piece - every country should have a sovereign wealth fund. Governments should block market access from automated[0] companies until those companies provide equity contributions to the wealth fund for that country. This aligns regulator and corporate interest…
Nationalize the data centers, reserve enough inference to automate power generation, food production, transportation, and housing.
Is there any government that has gotten socialism correct for its citizens? I'd point to UAE/Qatar if they didn't depend on human servitude and inequality.