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Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

desfontain.es

631–640 of 662 posts

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A B X Y It's very unlikely that the two candidates I hate are on opposite extremes and both popular. > Score voting is a Condorcet method. That gains it a point but there are much better methods. Ones where I don't feel the need to balance risk versus reward for candidates I moderately dislike. Then the guarantee of the pairwise winner coming out on top is actually using accurate information on what everyone wants.…

> It's very unlikely that the two candidates I hate are on opposite extremes and both popular. It's easy to hate the candidate on the opposite extreme from the way you lean, so all this really requires is for the extremist on your side to be a corrupt populist who gets support by telling people the lies they want to hear or is paying off the right people to get favorable media coverage or valuable endorsements. Or is…

> This is Arrow's Impossibility Theorem again. All of them do that

They do not. There are voting methods where I feel they work well enough that I don't worry about strategy, and I don't worry about what threshold to use for approval, I just rank choices honestly and then I'm done.

> Suppose your true ratings would be 10 for your most preferred candidate, 7 for the second best and 1 for the inhuman monster the opposing tribe somehow supports for no explicable reason. Polls say your first choice is expected to score ~5, your second choice ~6 and your vile enemy ~4, but all of these are plus or minus 2 points or more because polls are practically random number generators. What are you going to do?

In this situation the strategy play is that I rate both of the first two at 10. I'm not risking #3 by being strategic, I'm risking that I get #2 when I could have gotten #1.

For the situation where I might strategically lower the score, it's when there's a 10, there's a 7, there's a 4, and there's a 1. Do I give the 4 an honest rating that might help them win over the candidates I like, or do I give them a 1 and pray really hard that neither of the two guys I hate win? It's a tough choice.

> Suppose it's California and a Republican, a Democrat and a member of the Green Party are in the race.

This is a totally different situation. In the last version there were two moderates and one of them won. It was fine. In this version there's one middle candidate and they lose. But we already did this scenario earlier. I said "Yeah that's a real issue, and I'd want to use condorcet methods to fix that." So not just an instant runoff, but keeping the ranking system.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#633
post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran, Haiti, Russia, Syria, Lebanon, Argentina have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight.

>Russia ... have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight What do you mean? In the last 25 years life expectancy in Russia has risen by almost 10 years [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locat...

Why is this account still not banned

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#634
post #557
post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Mainstream parties could take a hard stance on immigration and destroy „far right movements“ overnight. No they would not. It would just empower far right to make further demands as everything shifted toward them. And you can even see it practically, each time mainstream parties move toward right, far right becomes stronger. Meanwhile, anti-far-right voters end up without anyone to vote for. Becoming far right your…

How come? Mainstream parties are openly ignoring one of the main concerns of a big block of voters. Then some parties start catering for that concern. That’s pure democracy feedback loop in action.

Maybe you don't talk to rightoids enough. They get braver every day. Things they wouldn't openly say 10 years ago are said in the open now. Just pausing immigration will do nothing. Some of them want blood and to ruin a large group of people. Others don't "want" this, but will do nothing if it happens.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#635
post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favorite gerrymandering story was when I learned an ~800 student local college had been split down the middle, so students were in different congressional districts depending on their dorm building.

There is a stretch of US183 in Austin, Texas, which allows you to drive through seven congressional districts in a matter of minutes. Also see: Nashville, Tennessee Like your dormroom example, ATX is very progressive .

I live in Austin and, in 2018, I could go west and pass through 4 districts in a few miles. My own one you would exit and re-enter and exit again!

I actually made jigsaw puzzles to advocate against gerrymandering. They were difficult to solve! michaeldnahas.com/doc/jigsaw_puzzle/index.html

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#636
post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How come? Mainstream parties are openly ignoring one of the main concerns of a big block of voters. Then some parties start catering for that concern. That’s pure democracy feedback loop in action.

Maybe you don't talk to rightoids enough. They get braver every day. Things they wouldn't openly say 10 years ago are said in the open now. Just pausing immigration will do nothing. Some of them want blood and to ruin a large group of people. Others don't "want" this, but will do nothing if it happens.

Maybe some of „good“ parties should start playing this democracy game and address some worries of the people? Mainstream parties are destroying democracy by ignoring the voters. Or flat-out lying by pretending they do address those worries and then doing 180 right after the elections. E.g. what CDU/CSU did in Germany. I wonder why AFD is doing so well...

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are asking what policy decisions hinge on that religion question. Given 1st amendment protections against government policy that favors one religion over another, I think that’s a fair question to ask.

Don’t some countries in EU have face covering bans that have to take religious practices into consideration? Isn’t (non) taxation of religious institutions an ongoing debate? Wouldn’t knowing religious census data aid in exploring that? Those are two things that’s popped into my head immediately. If I thought about it for an extended period of time, especially if I knew more about governed t and law, I’m sure there w…

So, are you implying the gov will have preferential treatment for one religion or another based on census data?

nobody still managed to reply the answer: what will do govt DO based on the data?

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#638
post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think handing the loaded gun to the chimpanzee is ethically ok, and the same as if you didn’t? The reason ICE is flailing around is because the information we are talking about doesn’t exist. They’re changing data gathering to collect it. That is literally the point.

To my eyes the chimpanze's "loaded gun" is the actual guns and the impunity to use them, and they're pulling the trigger because they can. Having accurate lists would be more of a painted targets instead of randomly shooting in the pack. Basically the kind of people shor would be different, but someone would still be shot. I'd argue that raiding the data center is theatrical more than anything, and they're not flaili…

Previously, the data didn’t exist. Which is (a large part) of why they are running around in total chaos.

They want to ‘fix’ this, by now gathering the fine grained data, and storing it.

See the problem?

Do you want them to be more effective with their terror tactics?

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#639
post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do what Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China are doing: just let it fall, it will eventually bounce back. Boomers will be fine. Replacing your entire culture and people doesn’t really fix the problem, it just permanently changes your country to be more like Africa, Mexico, India, etc.

TIL Africa is a country

I did not say Africa was a country..

>changes your country to be more like Africa

All of the countries in Africa, every single one, have a vastly lower standard of living than the USA.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#640
post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but it specifically ends the "vote for a candidate you dislike instead of the one you do like" type. Strategic approval voting is simply setting a higher/lower threshold on your approval. Your favorite is always included in your vote (assuming you like at least one candidate).

> Strategic approval voting is simply setting a higher/lower threshold on your approval. The strategy of this is no simpler than the strategy of a single vote system. > Yes, but it specifically ends the "vote for a candidate you dislike instead of the one you do like" type. > Your favorite is always included in your vote (assuming you like at least one candidate). Ranking candidates would express preferences more tha…

> But you advocated approval voting solely.

Yes, because RCV has issues: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_squeeze . Voting for your favorite candidate in RCV can help cause them to lose!

STAR is okay, but approval voting solves most of the issues with elections without being more complex.

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