Live data from Hacker News

The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

avkcode.github.io

631–640 of 718 posts

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#631
post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded of a comic about global warming, "What if it's a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?": https://climateactionreserve.org/blog/2012/08/31/environment... "What if AI doom is all fear-mongering, and we create AI less prone to make up dangerous stuff or mistake buggy goals for real ones" (which is what alignment is) "for nothing?" Even if Yudkowsky is autistic, you're muddling the condition. Au…

The problem is that effort spent to reduce the "risk" of creating an evil god who tortures us all for the rest of time doesn't actually produce outcomes that reduces the risk of things like widespread job loss or hyperaggregation of influence and money. "Oh we'll at least get some side benefit" is not actually what is coming out of the endlessly circular forums talking about the apocalypse.

Even if there was no overlap*, that would be like criticising the green movement for not focussing on working hours and pay like trade unions do.

Different people can care about different things; it's good that each of us gets to focus on what motivates us, rather than all chasing the same thing, because when multiple teams do all chase the same thing typically only the best few of them actually make a difference.

* as it happens, there is some overlap. Knowing more about how a narrow utility function behaves outside distribution is useful for both capabilities and safety. We're not even at the stage of being able to make AI not kill random subsets of the users with bad advice, nor reliably prevent users from falling into delusions of grandeur, let alone giving AI a reliable sense of liberty and the pursuit of happiness to maintain.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China going for Taiwan would be the worst geopolitical move of the century, potentially worse than Germany's decision to invade the soviet union. They talk about reunification because it's good propaganda and both sides want it to a degree, but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub

> and both sides want it to a degree Is "it" the propaganda (useful to politicians for achieving political power) or reunification? My sense is that the number of Taiwanese that are enthusiastic about reunification has probably bottomed out in recent decade(s)???

reunification. Yes, they've bottomed out as younger generations become more politically relevant but they still exist

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#633
post #48

No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. What's the point of leading the race for 90% of it, if they're gonna slip on their own sweat and fall down by the end? In non metaphorical terms, what's the point of spending billions of dollars rushing to get the best AI tech at all costs, when the competition can distil your progress and catch up in 6-12 months while only spending 1% of what you spent. E…

Mark Cuban in a recent interview answered your question: companies are afraid there is going to be just one in the end—sort of the way there is one ad-company now on the internet. They want to be that one. Whether they're correct that there can be only one is of course a matter of debate. But that is at least the mind-set they are operating under according to Cuban.

That was all based on the assumption that scaling LLMs would lead to AGI. That didn't happen and won't, it can be proven for anyone capable of digging into the details of what models actually are and what they are doing (I recommend Chris Hay's videos).

It's becoming more obvious everyday to people. They'll realize that 1000x the cost for marginal improvements isn't worth it and the market will open up. It'll become more based on tooling and smaller more task-focused models instead of this crazy project to create a data center god to rule over humanity.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#634
post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something being deorbited will probably break up into relatively harmless pieces that mostly burn up though, and there's no nuclear material involved so even if a massive chunk hits the Earth that's not going to have a huge impact. Based on ocean coverage there's a 0.7 probability that it'll just make a big splash. Should we ever get to a point where a country is considering shooting down space datacentres, considera…

>will probably break up if it is designed to breakup. And not if it isn't. >no nuclear material involved that is the beauty. No contamination. >that's not going to have a huge impact. in my comment i already specified the TNT equivalent of such an impact. >there's a 0.7 probability It isn't a matter of probability. You can deorbit with high precision, and pretty much hit any desired target on the ground if you have t…

De-orbitted 1-2 ton steel rods will have about the same effect - ie. you can hit many strategic objects of your attacker.

The orbital kinetic strike weapons that have been proposed in the past are usually 2 ton titanium rods that would hit at about Mach 10, and even with that level of force they've been dismissed as less useful than ballistic warheads. Things falling from space just aren't as dangerous as people tend to assume.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they've made everyone very angry at them, and can handle that since everyone relies on them. China, however, is trying to build that trust and forcefully taking Taiwan would have very severe consequences. The reason the fallout from iran isn't as big as the fallout from a war with taiwan is because most of the west at most puts up with iran. Invading taiwan, meanwhile, would cause massive problems with chip productio…

The difference is Iran is a terrorist regime that murders its own citizens and funds violence across the middle east.

so is the us, both are put up with because they control global trade to a degree

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my coworkers points out to me every sports reference that pops up in our internal company communications (e.g. "WINNING", "Going to put together a winning team," etc). It seems like everything in the US is couched in competitive language.

Yeah, its no accident that the U.S. is the number one economy, it comes from that kind of thinking across the populace. Complacency gets you conquered.

You made sickness and dying contribute to GDP, of course you are number one. Keep it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because some researchers are infected with this idiocy that EY propagates does not mean that it is legit. Maybe they should pay more attention to real problems like the sycophantic nature of current LLMs causing psychosis in people and worry less about theoretical AGI.

Who are you to say? Why do you have such little regard for everyone in the field, both pro- and anti- AI development? Do you think they're colluding to deceive us?

theres billions, even trillions of dollars on the line, why not start with the assumption they have every incentive to deceive, even if unintentional (ie, deceiving themselves)

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#639
post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Chinese models couldn't Distill from the larger models they'd be at gpt2 or 3 levels

To quote Elon Musk in court: > OpenAI’s counsel asked Musk whether xAI has ever “distilled” technology from OpenAI. > Musk: “Generally AI companies distill other AI companies.” > “Is that a yes?” Savitt asked. > Musk: “Partly.” From https://www.interconnects.ai/p/the-distillation-panic which is worth reading in full.

It seems impossible to prevent distillation. Thanks information reality of this universe

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#640
post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

It's a war because investors want to corner the market. That's what they do, that's what they'll always want.
Post reply on HN